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Military & Security

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Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
The Battle for UNIFIL’s Independence (Part 2): Facts on the Ground
The secretary-general’s latest report documents Hezbollah’s expanding violations—and the growing role that Lebanese government officials and military commanders play in abetting this activity.
Sep 21, 2023
◆
  • Matthew Levitt
  • Assaf Orion
United Nations headquarters building in New York - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
The Battle for UNIFIL’s Independence (Part 1): Hezbollah at the UN
Renewing the force’s mandate while blocking Hezbollah’s bid to formally hamstring it are welcome developments, but more concerted diplomatic action will be needed to reverse the downward security trend.
Sep 21, 2023
◆
  • Assaf Orion
  • Matthew Levitt
A photo illustration shows US and Iranian flags and an atomic symbol - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Iran’s Nuclear Diplomacy: Feint and Advance
What Washington considers de-escalation, Tehran sees as an opportunity to consolidate its nuclear gains, avoid accountability, and position itself to cross the nuclear weapons threshold at a time of its choosing.
Sep 14, 2023
◆
  • Michael Singh
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Iran’s Pressure Campaign on Iranian Kurds Continues
Iran has stepped up pressure on Baghdad and Erbil to disarm and relocate Iranian Kurdish opposition parties in the Kurdistan Region amidst ongoing disputes between Erbil and Baghdad over budget and oil revenues.
Sep 13, 2023
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  • Wladimir van Wilgenburg
Ships of the US Navy's Fifth Fleet on exercise in the Persian Gulf
Brief Analysis
The Uncertain State of Deterrence in the Persian Gulf
Despite conducting military drills and maintaining a defiant tone, Iran has avoided further ship seizures, but its demonstrated willingness to take assertive action in this zone of “contested deterrence” remains intact.
Sep 13, 2023
◆
  • Farzin Nadimi
Articles & Testimony
Is a New Israel-Hezbollah War Looming?
After many years serving as Iran’s mercenaries in regional wars, Hezbollah leaders now feel compelled to resume their aggressive approach to Israel.
Sep 9, 2023
◆
  • David Schenker
Qais al-Khazali and Hadi al-Ameri
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
The Coordination Framework's Four-Way Split in Provincial Elections (Part 2): Division Over Diyala?
Diyala is the one area where the CF's main militia politicians are competing, with the upstart Qais al-Khazali trying to challenge his elders Hadi al-Ameri and Faleh al-Fayyad in their tribal home province.
Sep 12, 2023
◆
  • Hamdi Malik
  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight
Iraq elections
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
The Coordination Framework's Four-Way Split in Provincial Elections (Part 1): Overarching Trends
Badr, Asaib Ahl al-Haq, and Nouri al-Maliki are testing each other's strength in the south but mostly hanging together in the north.
Sep 11, 2023
◆
  • Hamdi Malik
  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight
A hotel building in Kabul damaged by a bomb claimed by the Islamic State affiliate ISKIP - source: Reuters
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
ISKP Goes Global: External Operations from Afghanistan
Two decades after the 9/11 attacks, Taliban-ruled Afghanistan is once again becoming a haven for terrorist activities abroad—but this time by a local Islamic State branch.
Sep 11, 2023
◆
  • Aaron Y. Zelin
Rayan al-Kildani in a gaudy fake gold chair
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Rayan al-Kildani Pretends to Have a Personal Audience with the Pope
A serious Iraqi human rights abuser sank to new depths to build his credibility after being rejected by the country's Christian leadership.
Sep 8, 2023
◆
  • Yaqoub Beth-Addai
  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Iran’s Misunderstood Nuclear Law
Tehran may argue that its 2020 nuclear law constrains its room for maneuver in any future talks, but its compliance with that law has long been spotty, and officials seem more focused on ensuring that any concessions they make are reversible.
Sep 7, 2023
◆
  • Henry Rome
Aub Zainab al-Lami
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Coordination Framework Militias Exposed for Stealing Baghdad Real Estate
Pressure from Ayatollah Sistani and Sadrists has put Kataib Hezbollah and Asaib Ahl al-Haq on the defensive over their growing illicit property empire.
Aug 31, 2023
◆
  • Michael Knights
  • Amir al-Kaabi
◆ Militia Spotlight
Photo showing an Israeli tank and UN peacekeeping forces on the border with Lebanon.
Video
Brief Analysis
Israel-Lebanon Border Tensions: Hezbollah Provocation, IDF Response, and the Potential for Conflict
Three experts discuss the worsening situation on the ground and assess whether a new war is likely in the near term.
Aug 25, 2023
◆
  • Hanin Ghaddar
  • Assaf Orion
  • Matthew Levitt
Basij protests
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Nujaba Claims Victimization by Coordination Framework Militia-Politicians
Tensions between Iraq's "resistance" groups are on the rise, with Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba claiming that its online platforms and street protests are being targeted.
Aug 21, 2023
◆
  • Hamdi Malik
  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight
Crown Prince Muhammad and President Xi walking in Riyadh.
Brief Analysis
Closing Washington’s China Gap with Middle East Partners
For the first time in decades, America’s top strategic priority diverges from that of its key regional partners, but Washington can close the gap by increasing their understanding of China and removing the blinders from their threat perceptions.
Aug 14, 2023
◆
  • Michael Singh
A Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) soldier
Brief Analysis
Can the Lebanese Army Prevent a Hezbollah-Christian Conflict?
Given the military’s behavior during a recent confrontation and the spike in Christian anger toward Hezbollah, Washington should consider fine-tuning its assistance to the LAF, cutting off units that are not committed to protecting the people.
Aug 11, 2023
◆
  • Hanin Ghaddar
Sudani
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Nujaba Leads the "Big Three" Reaction to Iraq's Telegram Ban
While one leading militia spearheaded online vitriol against a social media ban that affected its affiliates, Asaib Ahl al-Haq and Kataib Hezbollah seemed more inclined to compromise.
Aug 10, 2023
◆
  • Hamdi Malik
◆ Militia Spotlight
Netblocks shows Telegram down in Iraq, Aug 6, 2023
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Militia Reactions to Iraq's Suspension of Telegram
The official ban on their favorite social media app may be temporary, but their response has highlighted divisions within the Shia militia milieu.
Aug 9, 2023
◆
  • Amir al-Kaabi
  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight
Two Ukraine-owned and operated Bayraktar drones
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
A "System of Systems" Approach to Countering Drones:
Examining Recent Operations from the Middle East to Ukraine
Military officials are seeking not a silver bullet but instead advances based on existing layered, interoperable systems.
Aug 7, 2023
◆
  • Eric Feely
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Iraqi Kurds Face Legitimacy Issues Amid Election Deadlock and Internal Division
The Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) has been heading for unprecedented political and financial uncertainties as a result of the growing disputes between the two ruling parties and the central government’s moves to erode the KRI’s autonomous status.
Aug 7, 2023
◆
  • Bekir Aydoğan

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Military and Security Studies Program

The Washington Institute's Military and Security Studies Program has established itself as an unrivaled source of reliable, incisive, and forward-looking analysis concerning several of the most critical national-security challenges facing the United States today: The U.S. military role in the Middle East, Iran's nuclear program and its proxy armies, the ongoing conflict is in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen, the regional proliferation of missiles and weapons of mass destruction, the security dimensions of the Arab-Israeli conflict, and many other security issues on the frontline of the U.S. policymaking agenda.

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Featured experts

Michael Eisenstadt
Michael Eisenstadt
Michael Eisenstadt is the Kahn Senior Fellow and director of The Washington Institute's Military and Security Studies Program.
Michael Knights
Michael Knights
Michael Knights is the Jill and Jay Bernstein Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute and cofounder of the Militia Spotlight platform, which offers in-depth analysis of developments related to Iran-backed militias.
Grant Rumley
Grant Rumley
Grant Rumley is the Meisel-Goldberger Senior Fellow and Director of the Diane and Guilford Glazer Foundation Program on Great Power Competition and the Middle East at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
Elizabeth Dent - source: The Washington Institute
Elizabeth Dent
Elizabeth Dent is a Senior Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, where she focuses on U.S. foreign and defense policy toward the Gulf states, Iraq, and Syria.
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