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All Policy Analysis by Aaron Y. Zelin
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Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Hamas Diplomacy: From Haniyeh to Sinwar
The group has sought to build legitimacy and prepare for a postwar role in Gaza by engaging with various countries since October, but the death of Ismail Haniyeh will complicate those efforts.
Aug 28, 2024
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Articles & Testimony
Looking for Legitimacy: The Taliban’s Diplomacy Campaign
In this chapter from the Jihadist Governance and Statecraft compilation, Aaron Y. Zelin explores how Afghanistan's one-time insurgents are making greater use of key instruments of state.
Aug 6, 2024
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Aaron Y. Zelin
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Jihadist Governance and Statecraft
Brief Analysis
The Islamic State’s External Operations Are More Than Just ISKP
Although the recent focus on ISKP plots emanating from Afghanistan is understandable, other IS “provinces” have been accelerating and coordinating their external operations as well.
Jul 26, 2024
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Brief Analysis
Responding to the Islamic State Attack in Oman
Although the mosque shooting was unprecedented in Oman, it fits with the terrorist group’s long practice of massacring Shia Muslims in the Gulf and beyond.
Jul 24, 2024
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Elizabeth Dent
Articles & Testimony
A Globally Integrated Islamic State
Tracking and accurately assessing the shifts in the group’s activities and command structure over the past five years is crucial to containing the evolved threat.
Jul 15, 2024
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
Jihadist Governance and Statecraft
In this anthology, contributors discuss the policy challenges associated with an emerging phenomenon, but disabuse readers of any notion that jihadist governance and statecraft should be equated with political moderation.
Jul 10, 2024
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Devorah Margolin
Aaron Y. Zelin
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Jihadist Governance and Statecraft
Brief Analysis
The Muslim Brothers Give Hamas a Foothold in Lebanon
Most Lebanese Sunnis have resisted the MB’s mobilization so far, but this sentiment could shift quickly due to pressures from the Gaza war, the economic crisis, the local political vacuum, and the inroads being made by Hamas and Hezbollah.
Jun 18, 2024
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Hanin Ghaddar
Aaron Y. Zelin
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
One Year of the Islamic State Worldwide Activity Map
The possibility of more terrorist attacks from Afghanistan, foreign fighter mobilizations in Africa, and dangerous ripple effects from U.S. military reshuffles in Iraq and Syria are among the many revealing data points and trends uncovered by this landmark interactive tool.
Mar 20, 2024
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Ilana Winter
Brief Analysis
The Islamic State on the March in Africa
Local branches now control territory in Mali, Somalia, and Mozambique, setting the stage for new foreign fighter mobilizations, resource extraction opportunities, and perhaps even external operations against the West.
Mar 1, 2024
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Brief Analysis
The Islamic State Hits Turkey After Years of Plotting
The latest attack will hopefully be an aberration in Ankara’s otherwise strong record of disrupting terrorist plots at home, though policymakers should not be lulled into complacency given the group’s proven record of evading elimination.
Jan 30, 2024
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Articles & Testimony
Explaining Recruitment to Extremism: A Bayesian Hierarchical Case-Control Approach
A study on who joins extremist and terrorist movements and why, offering new quantitative methods to approach the problem.
Nov 16, 2023
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Articles & Testimony
Examining Extremism Research Takedowns Online
A data-driven look at how research into terrorism and extremism is often hindered by tech companies with ill-suited content filters.
Nov 6, 2023
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
International Reactions to the Hamas Attack on Israel
At least forty-four nations have condemned Hamas and decried its tactics as terrorism, but regional players such as Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Syria, and Iraq have pinned responsibility on Israel.
Oct 11, 2023
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Cleary Waldo
Gabriel Epstein
Sydney Hilbush
Aaron Y. Zelin
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Tracking International Reactions to the Hamas-Israel War
Video
Brief Analysis
Islamist Approaches to Governance
Scholars will explore past and current attempts to establish Islamist governance by groups across broad swaths of the globe, from North Africa to the Indonesian archipelago. This event, originally scheduled for October 10, 2023, has been postponed.
This event, originally scheduled for October 10, 2023, has been postponed.
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Matthew Levitt
Aaron Y. Zelin
Joana Cook
Shiraz Maher
Video
Brief Analysis
The Next Afghan Jihad? Taliban Efforts to Contain ISKP
Three experts discuss how the Islamic State branch’s capacity to operate globally has evolved in troubling fashion since the coalition withdrawal.
Oct 2, 2023
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Amira Jadoon
Andrew Mines
Aaron Y. Zelin
Articles & Testimony
The Future of Homeland Security: Addressing the Rise of Terrorism in Africa
While finding ways to fill the vacuum left by the withdrawal of French forces, Washington and its allies must not forget that counterterrorism and great power competition with Russia are inextricably linked in these conflict zones.
Sep 27, 2023
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
Exploiting a "Vast Jihad Arena":
The Islamic State Takes Territory in Mali
The offensive occurred amid a deteriorating security situation across the Sahel that will require creative U.S. responses.
Sep 26, 2023
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Sarah Cahn
Articles & Testimony
The Islamic State’s Shadow Governance in Eastern Syria Since the Fall of Baghuz
Given the group’s multileveled efforts to exert local authority, it could resurge quickly into full territorial control if the coalition pulls back too soon.
Sep 22, 2023
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Devorah Margolin
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
ISKP Goes Global: External Operations from Afghanistan
Two decades after the 9/11 attacks, Taliban-ruled Afghanistan is once again becoming a haven for terrorist activities abroad—but this time by a local Islamic State branch.
Sep 11, 2023
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Brief Analysis
Niger Coup Threatens U.S. Strategy on Counterterrorism and Russia
An entrenched military junta could jeopardize America’s primary CT partner in West Africa, create ripple effects for security beyond the Sahel, and give Russia’s Wagner Group a new opening on the continent.
Aug 16, 2023
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Ben Fishman
Anna Borshchevskaya
Aaron Y. Zelin
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