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All Policy Analysis by Aaron Y. Zelin
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Brief Analysis
Hanging on in Idlib: Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s Expanding Tribal Engagement
As Western policymakers debate potential engagement with HTS, they should do so with eyes wide open to the jihadist group’s true status in the province and its intentions toward local tribal institutions.
Jun 11, 2021
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Articles & Testimony
The Policy Consequences of Arab State Normalization with the Assad Regime
In addition to undermining the Biden administration’s promised focus on human rights, allowing Assad to regain legitimacy abroad would constitute a strategic blunder that cannot be explained away.
Jun 2, 2021
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Oula A. Alrifai
Aaron Y. Zelin
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Protests in Daraa, Syria Undermine Assad's Narrative of Victory
Recent protests in Daraa demonstrate that Assad’s hold over regime-controlled areas are not as total as they appear.
Apr 2, 2021
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Oula A. Alrifai
Aaron Y. Zelin
Articles & Testimony
Jihadi Movements 2021: ISIS, al-Qaeda, and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham
A closer look at the attack patterns, ideological disagreements, and shifting strategies of the world’s foremost jihadi organizations over the past year.
Mar 17, 2021
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Articles & Testimony
Tunisia 2021: Ennahda vs. Extremists
Despite accusations by leftist politicians, Ennahda’s commitment to national security has not wavered since it turned on the jihadi movement, but the party still needs to define what it means by “Muslim Democracy.”
Mar 17, 2021
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Brief Analysis
Assad Is Giving Biden Every Reason to Prioritize Syria
Even if the growing regional and geopolitical stakes were not sufficient on their own, the regime’s domestic negligence, illegitimacy, and criminality provide ample reason to shake up Washington’s approach.
Mar 3, 2021
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Oula A. Alrifai
Brief Analysis
The Tunisian Jihadist Movement Ten Years After the Prisoner Amnesty
Security issues won’t top Tunisia’s agenda in 2021, but the sheer volume of citizens mobilized into the jihadist milieu over the past decade suggests that the consequences will be felt for years to come.
Feb 19, 2021
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Aaron Y. Zelin
In-Depth Reports
Syria at the Center of Power Competition and Counterterrorism
Even as U.S. policymakers must stay focused on the Assad regime’s culpability, they also face a complex web of power dynamics in which Russia, Turkey, Iran, Israel, and other actors are attempting to secure their various interests.
Feb 8, 2021
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Articles & Testimony
Tunisians of the Iraq Jihad and How That Set the Stage for the Syrian Jihad
The disproportionate role of Tunisians in both campaigns can be traced to a wide array of factors, including travel routes, prison experiences, battlefield leadership, and propaganda patterns back home.
Jan 29, 2021
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Articles & Testimony
My Beloved Brothers in God, This Is an Invitation: The Islamic State’s Dawa and Mosques Administration
An in-depth study on how the group's outreach and proselytization activities evolved before, during, and after its jihadist state-building project in Iraq and Syria.
December 2020
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Brief Analysis
Al-Qaeda’s External Operations One Year After the Pensacola Attack
Drone campaigns have greatly culled the group’s leadership, but leaders are replaceable, and the guided-attack model seen in Pensacola could be a significant force multiplier for any locally rooted affiliates who seek to strike abroad in the coming years.
Dec 11, 2020
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Matthew Levitt
Aaron Y. Zelin
Video
Brief Analysis
Terrorism in France: New and Old Trends in Jihadism
Three experts on European jihadism discuss the root causes and operational significance of recent Islamist violence in France.
Nov 13, 2020
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Laurence Bindner
Hugo Micheron
Aaron Y. Zelin
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Counterterrorism Lecture Series
Articles & Testimony
Living Long Enough to See Yourself Become the Villain: The Case of Abu Muhammad al-Maqdisi
Recent developments in Syria indicate that the jihadi movement is splitting once again, as a prominent ideologue begins to form a third pole at odds with both al-Qaeda and the Islamic State.
Sep 9, 2020
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Video
Brief Analysis
The Islamic State's Resurgence in the COVID Era?
From Defeat to Renewal in Iraq and Syria
Two experts assess the recent attack patterns and future prospects of a group that once seemed on the cusp of defeat in both countries.
May 29, 2020
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Michael Knights
Articles & Testimony
The Jihadi-Backed Salvation Government and Covid-19 in Northwest Syria
Disease prevention efforts in Idlib illustrate the movement's political evolution and its differences from the Islamic State, but the pandemic may still hit the area hard given inconsistent implementation and years of regime destruction.
May 15, 2020
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Brief Analysis
Syria’s Three Governments Confront the Coronavirus
The rebel administration in Idlib and the Kurdish-led government in the northeast have been more proactive and transparent than the Assad regime, but their populations still need urgent, direct international aid—without the UN’s imprimatur if necessary.
Apr 1, 2020
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Oula A. Alrifai
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
A Year Since Baghuz, the Islamic State Is Neither Defeated nor Resurging (Yet)
Although attack statistics have declined, the continued lack of stable governance in Diyala and Deir al-Zour shows that Washington and its partners have not absorbed the lessons provided by previous insurgencies.
Mar 25, 2020
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Articles & Testimony
How Ansar al-Sharia in Tunisia’s Message Framing Primed Its Members to Become Recruits for the Islamic State
By the time IS came to the fore in Iraq and Syria, many of its themes and activities were already second nature to Tunisian jihadis who had heard similar messaging at home.
Mar 19, 2020
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Articles & Testimony
Ultra Extremism Among Tunisian Jihadis Within the Islamic State
A deeper look into how one of the organization's Tunisian factions in Syria adopted and practiced an even more radical distortion of Islamic thought than its parent group.
Feb 18, 2020
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Video
Brief Analysis
Tunisia's Missionaries of Jihad
How did a democratic bright spot in the Arab Spring become a leading source of Islamic State fighters? Read or watch an in-depth conversation with two jihadism experts.
Feb 14, 2020
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Rukmini Callimachi
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