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Policy Analysis
All Policy Analysis by Aaron Y. Zelin
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Articles & Testimony
Mission Unaccomplished: The Tweet That Upended Trump’s Counterterrorism and Iran Policies
If the Syria withdrawal proves inevitable, officials should push to phase the departure, keep U.S. forces at Tanf, maintain the air campaign, forge a counterterror agreement with Turkey, and take other fallback measures.
Dec 25, 2018
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Matthew Levitt
Aaron Y. Zelin
Video
Brief Analysis
Tunisia's Foreign Fighters
Two leading experts discuss why thousands of young Tunisians mobilized for jihad in Iraq and Syria, and what governments are doing now that they are taking their cause back home—or to the West.
Dec 17, 2018
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Jacob Walles
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Counterterrorism Lecture Series
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
Tunisian Foreign Fighters in Iraq and Syria
Over the past few years, the influx of Tunisian fighters to Iraq and Syria has rendered Tunisia practically synonymous with a phenomenon that is still not well understood. This new Policy Note by jihadism expert Aaron Y. Zelin seeks to remedy this gap by quantifying the flow of Tunisian fighters
Nov 28, 2018
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Brief Analysis
Tunisia’s Female Jihadists
An unprecedented attack by a female bomber should not come as a surprise considering the spike in women’s jihadist activism since 2011.
Oct 31, 2018
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Articles & Testimony
Tunisian Jihadism Five Years After Ansar al-Sharia
While the government should be commended for putting a lid on attacks, it needs to move beyond a security-only approach and reintegrate less-hardened jihadis.
Sep 16, 2018
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Brief Analysis
Sep 8, 2018
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Brief Analysis
Jul 11, 2018
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Brief Analysis
The Islamic State Targets Tunisia Ahead of Elections
The group has been conducting propaganda campaigns and violence against democratic processes throughout the region, so it may try to back up its latest warnings with attacks in Tunisia’s vulnerable interior.
Apr 30, 2018
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Multimedia
Brief Analysis
Foreign Fighters in Libya: Consequences for Africa and Europe
As the fight against the Islamic State shifts from retaking territory to preventing regrowth, a jihadism scholar and the former deputy head of AFRICOM discuss what Washington should learn from the group's activities in Libya.
Feb 21, 2018
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Michael T. Franken
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Counterterrorism Lecture Series
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
The Others: Foreign Fighters in Libya
This new study offers a deeper understanding of the foreign-fighter phenomenon, its evolution, and its potential trajectories.
Jan 16, 2018
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Brief Analysis
Revisiting the Islamic State's 2011-2014 Reemergence: Lessons for the Future
Given the clampdown on foreign fighters and the changed environment in Syria and Iraq, the group may be unable to break out as broadly as it once did, so Washington's approach should shift accordingly.
Dec 18, 2017
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Brief Analysis
Interpreting the Fall of Islamic State Governance
Although the cessation of governance-related media releases suggests a full retreat, IS remains active in military campaigns and eager to rise again by taking advantage of local grievances.
Oct 16, 2017
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Brief Analysis
What to Expect From the State Department's Annual Counterterrorism Report
Areas of focus will likely include a damaged but still dangerous Islamic State, a regrouping al-Qaeda, and the wide network fielded by Iran and its proxy Hezbollah.
Jul 18, 2017
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Matthew Levitt
Katherine Bauer
Aaron Y. Zelin
Brief Analysis
The Caliphate Project in Iraq Post-Mosul
Destroying the vestiges of IS governance will not eliminate the group -- which will continue to pose an insurgent and terrorist threat -- but it will remove any arguments the jihadists might be inclined to make about the near-term viability of their state.
Jul 13, 2017
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Aaron Y. Zelin
In-Depth Reports
How al-Qaeda Survived Drones, Uprisings, and the Islamic State
Over the past eight years, al-Qaeda's fortunes have ebbed and flowed. Drones, uprisings, and a challenge from the Islamic State have forced the core al-Qaeda organization—historically based in the Afghanistan/Pakistan region—and its various branches to adapt and migrate outward. In this new Policy Focus, Washington Institute fellow Aaron Y. Zelin
Jun 28, 2017
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Brief Analysis
May 25, 2017
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Brief Analysis
Manchester Attack Highlights Foreign Fighters in Libya
Even as the Islamic State continues to lose territory, its evolution in Libya since 2014 should convince Western authorities not to underestimate its capacity for directing lethal attacks abroad.
May 24, 2017
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Articles & Testimony
The Importance of CVE in Light of the Changing Nature of the Threat
To decrease the likelihood of terrorist attacks, governments should complement traditional CT with de-securitized tools on the front and back end of the radicalization process.
Apr 27, 2017
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Articles & Testimony
Fifteen Years After the Djerba Synagogue Bombing
Tunisia has had one of the largest foreign fighter mobilizations to the battlefields of Libya, Iraq, and Syria, so its outsize representation in the ranks of international terrorist operatives will likely persist well into the future.
Apr 14, 2017
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Aaron Y. Zelin
In-Depth Reports
Defeating Ideologically Inspired Violent Extremism
A Strategy to Build Strong Communities and Protect the U.S. Homeland
Preventing and countering violent extremism is not a soft alternative to counterterrorism, but an essential toolkit to complement law enforcement's ongoing efforts to prevent violence.
Mar 13, 2017
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Matthew Levitt
Aaron Y. Zelin
Katherine Bauer
Jacob Olidort
Rand Beers
Adnan Kifayat
Samantha Ravich
Eric Rosand
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