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Brief Analysis
One Year After the Gaza Ceasefire (Part 4): Dealing with Differences Between the Regional Mediators
Unless Washington lays out clear principles on Hamas, the differing strategic views that Ankara, Cairo, and Doha hold toward the group will inevitably erode their cooperation, especially as the implementation process enters more difficult terrain.
Oct 8, 2026
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Ghaith al-Omari
◆
One Year After the Gaza Ceasefire
Brief Analysis
The Islamic State in Iraq After the U.S. Withdrawal
To prevent the type of jihadist resurgence seen after past U.S. military departures, Washington will need to sustain counterterrorism support and close any political, security, and detention gaps that IS could exploit.
Oct 8, 2026
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Aaron Y. Zelin
Video
Brief Analysis
A Conversation with Samir Geagea:
How to End Lebanon’s Cycle of War and Build a Sovereign State
A major Lebanese political leader explains why Beirut’s exaggerated fears of “civil war” with Hezbollah are no excuse for stalling efforts to confront the group and its Iranian patron.
Oct 7, 2026
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Samir Geagea
David Schenker
Hanin Ghaddar
Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
One Year After the Gaza Ceasefire (Part 3): Moving from War to Enduring Security Control
A veteran Israeli intelligence and defense official assesses the country’s military strategy in Gaza since the ceasefire and makes recommendations for the path forward.
Oct 7, 2026
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Zohar Palti
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One Year After the Gaza Ceasefire
Articles & Testimony
Israel’s PTSD Election
The memory of October 7 will still drive Israeli politics no matter which government comes to power, but this should not stop Washington from calling out strategic mistakes and reminding Jerusalem that other populations have suffered as well.
Oct 6, 2026
◆
Dennis Ross
Brief Analysis
One Year After the Gaza Ceasefire (Part 2): How Hamas Has Kept Its Grip on Governance
Despite relinquishing official authority, Hamas has maintained decentralized systems of governance and financing in Gaza and is attempting to expand its influence in the West Bank as well.
Oct 6, 2026
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Neomi Neumann
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One Year After the Gaza Ceasefire
Brief Analysis
Will Turkey Align with Washington’s Iran “Economic Outcast” Policy?
Ankara appears to be moving toward greater alignment with U.S. sanctions, but its willingness to commit to full cooperation remains in question.
Oct 6, 2026
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Richard Nephew
Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Chapeau: Assessing the Gaza Ceasefire, Year One
Two former senior U.S. officials look back at what the ceasefire has produced—and failed to produce—in its first year of implementation, focusing on the underused leverage provided by the July 30 “roadmap” agreement with Hamas.
Oct 5, 2026
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David Makovsky
Dennis Ross
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One Year After the Gaza Ceasefire
Brief Analysis
One Year After the Gaza Ceasefire (Part 1): U.S. Priorities for Year Two
The Trump administration should be prepared to push a suite of concrete actions immediately after Israel’s election, from delivering urgently needed interim housing to convening high-level meetings with regional mediators and avoiding steps that signal abandonment of the PA.
Oct 5, 2026
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Dennis Ross
David Makovsky
◆
One Year After the Gaza Ceasefire
Video
Brief Analysis
Three Years After October 7: A Bridge or Chasm Between Peoples?
Former American, Israeli, and PA officials reflect on the anniversary of the October 7 attack and the devastating war that followed, offering practical ideas for gradually closing the enormous trust gap that has reopened since 2023.
Oct 5, 2026
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Nitzan Alon
Ghaith al-Omari
Dennis Ross
Ksenia Svetlova
Brief Analysis
U.S.-Iran Dynamics Beneath the Stalemate
American negotiators may be feeling pressure to achieve a deal, but they should also appreciate and capitalize on the mounting economic strain facing leaders in Tehran.
Sep 30, 2026
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Patrick Clawson
Articles & Testimony
Israel and Its ‘Near Abroad’ After the October Elections
Israel does not seem to be planning any major new security steps before the vote to address tensions with Gaza, Iran, Lebanon, Syria, or Turkey, and that same caution may linger with the next government—but for how long?
Sep 26, 2026
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James Jeffrey
Brief Analysis
What Will Trump and Xi Have to Say About the Middle East?
Washington should use this summit to convince China to put more pressure on Iran and establish safeguards on AI, but without conceding on other critical issues like Taiwan.
Sep 22, 2026
◆
Grant Rumley
Elizabeth Dent
Brief Analysis
Trump’s GCC Meeting: A Path Out of the Conflict
Given this month’s shifting threat picture, the administration should push for another compromise deal similar to the June MOU—though getting Iran back to the table will require accepting certain escalatory risks and providing more concrete security guarantees to increasingly vulnerable Gulf partners.
Sep 21, 2026
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James Jeffrey
Brief Analysis
Settlements Trade Ban: Europe and Israel on a Collision Course Over the West Bank
Although the unprecedented decision to jointly prohibit trade with settlements raises difficult diplomatic and political questions amid a weighty Israeli election cycle, the announcement will also have important effects beyond that date, signaling that many countries will prioritize this issue in their relations with whatever government voters choose.
Sep 18, 2026
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Pierre-Arnaud Blanchard
Brief Analysis
Iraq’s Militia Balancing Act Gets Trickier Amid Deadlines and Saudi Attacks
As the September 30 disarmament deadline for PMF militias approaches, Washington should support the Zaidi government’s efforts and ensure that the militias’ concessions are real.
Sep 18, 2026
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David Schenker
Articles & Testimony
Hormuz Shuttle Tankers: An Evolving Trend Amid the Iran War
Ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman have provided a helpful export alternative for regional oil producers, but this shuttle trade will likely remain a target for Iranian attacks.
Sep 17, 2026
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Noam Raydan
Articles & Testimony
The Real U.S.-Saudi Nuclear Deal Is Better Than We Thought
Some textual concerns persist, such as how to handle the risk of Saudi cheating and avoid setting bad precedents, but the official agreement has several worthwhile provisions that reduce the intrinsic risk of nuclear trade.
Sep 17, 2026
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Richard Nephew
Articles & Testimony
Jordan’s Strategic Importance to Washington Increases
Given the heavy damage inflicted on more vulnerable facilities closer to Iran, Jordan has emerged as perhaps the most critical center for America’s regional military activities for the current crisis and beyond.
Sep 17, 2026
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David Schenker
Brief Analysis
Extremist Settler Terrorism and Violence in the West Bank: New Data Calls for a New Strategy
Acts of violence by extremist settlers have risen sharply in scale and severity, shifting from largely reactive incidents to a more proactive, strategic effort aimed at displacing Palestinian communities and seizing territory.
Sep 18, 2026
◆
Neomi Neumann
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