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U.S. Policy

Policy Analysis on U.S. Policy

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Brief Analysis
America Votes, the Middle East Reacts: Views on U.S. Elections from Across the Region
Experts from the Gulf, Egypt, Turkey, and Israel respond to the initial voting results and discuss factors that may help or hinder the next administration.
Nov 9, 2020
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  • Abdulrahman al-Rashed
  • Mohamed Anwar E. al-Sadat
  • Asli Aydintasbas
  • David Horovitz
Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamanei, gestures while speaking
Brief Analysis
What Does Iran’s Supreme Leader Expect from the Next U.S. President?
Ayatollah Khamenei is wholly focused on preserving the political system he has so painstakingly built, but trends suggest a shaky Iranian future regardless of who wins the U.S. election.
Oct 23, 2020
◆
  • Mehdi Khalaji
Brief Analysis
Keeping Down a Diminished Islamic State:
The Prospect of an October Surprise Attack
The relatively low risk underscores the importance of Washington’s continued pressure to curtail the jihadist group’s strike capability outside its areas of operation.
Oct 20, 2020
◆
  • Ido Levy
In-Depth Reports
Prospects for Syrian Kurdish Unity: Assessing Local and Regional Dynamics
In October 2019, the U.S. troop withdrawal and subsequent Turkish invasion of northern Syria upended Kurdish plans in the region. But a year later, the major Syrian Kurdish rivals—the Democratic Union Party (PYD) and Kurdish National Council (KNC)—are coming together after a lengthy estrangement. This past June, representatives from the
Oct 19, 2020
◆
  • Sirwan Kajjo
Brief Analysis
Tehran Eyes Lifting of Arms Embargo
The regime senses a major win in the forthcoming move, perceiving an isolated and weakened United States and opportunities for escalation on many fronts.
Oct 16, 2020
◆
  • Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Risks of the Palestinian Authority’s Outreach to Qatar and Turkey
Recent gestures, which have included reconciliation talks with Hamas, could strengthen the PA’s Gaza-based rival, further strain relations with its traditional Arab allies, and spur elections with destabilizing results.
Oct 13, 2020
◆
  • Ghaith al-Omari
Brief Analysis
Washington Confuses Tactics with Strategy: The Perils of Shuttering the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad
In threatening the closure, the U.S. administration is undermining the reform-minded Iraqi prime minister’s efforts against Iran-backed militias and risking Baghdad’s relationship with Washington.
Oct 9, 2020
◆
  • Dana Stroul
  • Bilal Wahab
  • Barbara A. Leaf
Video
Brief Analysis
An October Surprise with Iran? Calculations and Policy Implications
Three experts on Iranian politics and strategy assess the possibilities of last-minute dramatic developments between the two adversaries before the U.S. election.
Oct 8, 2020
◆
  • Mehdi Khalaji
  • Ariane Tabatabai
  • Michael Eisenstadt
Articles & Testimony
Were Iran and the United States Really ‘On the Brink’? Observations on Gray Zone Conflict
Tehran’s entire modus operandi is designed to pressure Washington and its allies but avoid all-out conflict, and distorting this reality so close to a U.S. election will only hinder an effective policy response.
Sep 27, 2020
◆
  • Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
Pushing Back on Iraqi Militias: Weighing U.S. Options
Although halting the escalation of militia attacks on American personnel is crucial, simply evacuating the Baghdad embassy and downscaling the bilateral relationship would allow Iran to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.
Sep 25, 2020
◆
  • Michael Knights
Brief Analysis
How to Balance Competing Priorities with an F-35 Sale to the UAE
The sale offers strategic opportunities at a time of pivoting U.S. policy, and the concerns raised in Washington and abroad can be addressed through deliberate technical limitations, financing restrictions, offsetting benefits for Israel, and other measures.
Sep 23, 2020
◆
  • Christine McVann
Brief Analysis
Britain in Oman: Washington’s Strategic Partner
London is investing heavily in supporting its relationship with Muscat, not least because Omani mediation can often be more effective than its own in fostering regional stability and security.
Sep 18, 2020
◆
  • Jonathan Campbell-James
Articles & Testimony
The F-35 Triangle: America, Israel, the United Arab Emirates
Selling the advanced U.S. jet to a foreign government ought to signal the highest confidence in that country’s warfighting capabilities, decisionmaking on the use of force, and commitment to protecting sensitive technology, but the UAE’s record on each of these issues is mixed.
Sep 15, 2020
◆
  • Barbara A. Leaf
  • Dana Stroul
Video
Brief Analysis
The UAE-Israel Breakthrough: Bilateral and Regional Implications and U.S. Policy
Former diplomats and experts discuss what steps each party should take after the historic White House signing ceremony, and how to bring the Palestinians and other actors into the fold.
Sep 14, 2020
◆
  • Ebtesam al-Ketbi
  • Dore Gold
  • Barbara A. Leaf
  • David Makovsky
Brief Analysis
Bahrain Move Toward Israel Risks Domestic Reaction
The announcement of a peace deal between Israel and Bahrain suggests that the Gulf island kingdom has reassessed the danger of opposition from both its majority Shia population and its Sunni community.
Sep 11, 2020
◆
  • Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
The Russian Way of War in Syria: Threat Perception and Approaches to Counterterrorism
Putin’s Russia and the West have never shared the same goals or threat perceptions regarding terrorism and other regional issues, so Washington should craft its Syria policy accordingly.
Sep 10, 2020
◆
  • Anna Borshchevskaya
Chinese and U.S. flags flutter at a trade meeting in Shanghai
Articles & Testimony
China and the United States in the Middle East: Between Dependency and Rivalry
Continuing the status quo—a large American presence, but uncertain American commitment—would be a high-cost, high-risk, low-reward approach.
Sep 10, 2020
◆
  • Michael Singh
Articles & Testimony
Peace for Warplanes?
How domestic and foreign disputes over the potential sale of F-35 jets to the UAE could complicate the country's normalization deal with Israel.
Aug 31, 2020
◆
  • Neri Zilber
Articles & Testimony
Why Russia’s Great Power Game in Iraq Matters
Moscow’s quietly growing influence will only prop up the country’s anti-American forces and worsen its struggles with corruption and ethnosectarian tension.
Aug 31, 2020
◆
  • Anna Borshchevskaya
Brief Analysis
Iran’s Cautious Response to Washington’s Snapback Threat
Instead of playing hardball, the entire regime is seemingly embracing the more prudent approach of disregarding the U.S. threat and exploiting the resultant diplomatic clash for political gains.
Aug 21, 2020
◆
  • Omer Carmi

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Diane and Guilford Glazer Foundation Program on Great Power Competition and the Middle East

The Diane and Guilford Glazer Foundation Program on Great Power Competition and the Middle East focuses on the region as a setting for heightened competition between the United States and other world powers, such as China and Russia.

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