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Military & Security

Policy Analysis on Military & Security

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An Israeli border guard secures the gate at a crossing with Lebanon in 2007 - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
The Lebanon Ceasefire: Managing Israeli Public Expectations and U.S. Coordination
In addition to assuaging public fears about the agreement, officials will need to reach a shared understanding with Washington about how to enforce its terms and respond to Hezbollah violations.
Dec 5, 2024
◆
  • David Makovsky
A soldier from Iraq's Counter Terrorism Service participates in a joint training exercise with U.S. colleagues - source: U.S. Department of Defense
Brief Analysis
How Washington Can Salvage Iraq’s Counter Terrorism Service
CTS is the most successful U.S. partner force in Iraq, which is why Iran-backed terrorist groups are trying to penetrate and corrupt it.
Dec 3, 2024
◆
  • Michael Knights
A rebel fighter belonging to the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham gestures while riding a vehicle near Aleppo in November 2024 - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
The Patient Efforts Behind Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s Success in Aleppo
The former jihadist affiliate has changed tremendously in the past few years, and understanding this new reality is crucial to identifying how its current offensive might unfold.
Dec 3, 2024
◆
  • Aaron Y. Zelin
Muqawama under threat
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Iraqi Militias Downscaling Their Anti-Israel Actions
Iran-backed groups were already powering down for weeks before Israel delivered a stark warning on November 18, after which attacks dropped off almost entirely.
Nov 26, 2024
◆
  • Ameer al-Kaabi
  • Michael Knights
  • Hamdi Malik
◆ Militia Spotlight
Faces shown on Nov 6 IRI claim video of drone strike on Jordan Valley
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Militia List of U.S. “Greatest Hits” Gives Insight Into Attack Cell Structure
A poster of thirty-six militia “martyrs” provides useful data about who was killed by U.S. forces at specific times and places.
Nov 26, 2024
◆
  • Michael Knights
  • Ameer al-Kaabi
◆ Militia Spotlight
Book cover with Iranian missiles, including Shahab-3
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
If Iran Gets the Bomb:
Weapons, Force Posture, Strategy
The decision would require tradeoffs affecting the security, survivability, and military credibility of Tehran's nascent arsenal.
Nov 25, 2024
◆
  • Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
How the B-2 Can Help Reinforce U.S. Messaging to Iran
Amid serious escalation in the Middle East, the United States should more clearly frame its recent deployment of B-2 and B-52 bombers to the region as a warning to Iran—and reinforce this with more posturing, messaging, and accelerated deployment of deep penetrators.
Nov 21, 2024
◆
  • Farzin Nadimi
  • James E. Shepard
Boat from SAD Nov 19, 2024 drone launch vs Israel
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Iraqi Militias Unveil SAD Aircraft Carrier
Saraya Awliya al-Dam launched a Shahed drone from a small boat in an apparent effort to draw attention by demonstrating a rudimentary new capability.
Nov 19, 2024
◆
  • Michael Knights
  • Hamdi Malik
  • Crispin Smith
◆ Militia Spotlight
MIBH
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Anti-Israel Attacks by Iraq-Based Group with Implied Saudi Membership
A group with a Saudi-linked name has claimed six attacks on Israel, but they were probably launched from Iraq using Kataib Hezbollah and/or Houthi drone teams.
Nov 19, 2024
◆
  • Hamdi Malik
  • Michael Knights
  • Crispin Smith
◆ Militia Spotlight
DEHS wall poster - Our martyrs are our pride
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Profile: Directorate of Education, al-Hashd al-Shabi (DEHS)
An Iraqi militia directorate that has grown into a major state-funded educational foundation, arranging university education for students tied to the PMF and sending some to Iran on scholarships paid by Tehran.
Nov 18, 2024
◆
  • Sary Mumayiz
◆ Militia Spotlight: Profiles
Nuclear warhead schematics from the Manhattan Project, 1945
Brief Analysis
With Its Conventional Deterrence Diminished, Will Iran Go for the Bomb?
Although recent military setbacks have fueled Iranian talk about a possible nuclear breakout, uncertainty about the risks, costs, and utility of weaponization may give the United States leverage to ensure that Tehran continues to hedge.
Nov 15, 2024
◆
  • Michael Eisenstadt
Somali president Hassan Sheikh Mohamud shakes hands with Egyptian president Abden Fattah el-Sisi in Cairo in August 2024 - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Making the Best of Egypt’s Entrance into Somalia
The United States can help renew the African Union mission by managing Egypt-Ethiopia tensions and mediating between various actors in Somalia.
Nov 6, 2024
◆
  • Ido Levy
Brief Analysis
How to Judge Iranian Response Options Against Israel
Poor internal communications and miscalculation could lead Tehran to continue the cycle by striking again soon, whether directly or through its Iraqi proxies.
Nov 1, 2024
◆
  • Patrick Clawson
  • Michael Knights
A photo illustration depicts Israeli and Palestinian flags - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
How to End the Third Lebanon War—and Prevent the Fourth
The security arrangements set forth by Resolution 1701 and other past accords need to be beefed up and, more important, enforced—a task that may require an international “action group” willing to operate beyond the Security Council’s limitations.
Oct 29, 2024
◆
  • Assaf Orion
KH drones
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Iraqi Militias Try to Obfuscate Their Role in Anti-U.S. Attacks
Members of the "Islamic Resistance in Iraq" are using facades and unclaimed attacks to distance themselves from the recent uptick in operations against American targets.
Oct 29, 2024
◆
  • Hamdi Malik
  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight
Protestors carrying Iraqi, Lebanon, and KH flags
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Militia Mob Attacks Saudi MBC Channel in Baghdad
Provocative Gulf coverage of terrorist leader deaths spurred Kataib Hezbollah to unleash mob violence against the network's Baghdad offices.
Oct 28, 2024
◆
  • Amir al-Kaabi
  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight
Photo showing flame and smoke rising over Lebanon's border with Israel.
Articles & Testimony
Taking the War to Hezbollah: What It Might, and Might Not, Achieve
Drawing on lessons from the 2006 war, Israel should focus on strategic outcomes such as better securing its border with Lebanon.
Oct 27, 2024
◆
  • Matthew Levitt
U.S. President Joe Biden greets French President Emmanuel Macron at the White House in December, 2022 - source: White House
Brief Analysis
Assessing U.S.-French Cooperation a Year After October 7
Fighting on several Middle East fronts has revealed gaps between the allies, but they have ample room to collaborate in areas that range from ensuring Lebanese sovereignty to delivering humanitarian aid.
Oct 18, 2024
◆
  • Souhire Medini
Articles & Testimony
The Real Purpose of a U.S.-Saudi Security Agreement
A treaty would pave the way for better security integration among U.S. partners in the region and reduce the need for direct American intervention.
Oct 17, 2024
◆
  • Michael Singh
EU vessel participating in Operation Aspides against the Houthis.
Maps & Graphics
The Ship Operators Shrugging Off Houthi Attacks
While major operators will continue to avoid the Red Sea in 2025, others are launching new services in the high-risk waterway, including some that manage China-linked vessels.
Oct 16, 2024
◆
  • Noam Raydan
◆ Maritime Spotlight

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Supported by the

Military and Security Studies Program

The Washington Institute's Military and Security Studies Program has established itself as an unrivaled source of reliable, incisive, and forward-looking analysis concerning several of the most critical national-security challenges facing the United States today: The U.S. military role in the Middle East, Iran's nuclear program and its proxy armies, the ongoing conflict is in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen, the regional proliferation of missiles and weapons of mass destruction, the security dimensions of the Arab-Israeli conflict, and many other security issues on the frontline of the U.S. policymaking agenda.

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Featured experts

Michael Eisenstadt
Michael Eisenstadt
Michael Eisenstadt is the Kahn Senior Fellow and director of The Washington Institute's Military and Security Studies Program.
Michael Knights
Michael Knights
Michael Knights is the Jill and Jay Bernstein Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute and cofounder of the Militia Spotlight platform, which offers in-depth analysis of developments related to Iran-backed militias.
Grant Rumley
Grant Rumley
Grant Rumley is the Meisel-Goldberger Senior Fellow and Director of the Diane and Guilford Glazer Foundation Program on Great Power Competition and the Middle East at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
Elizabeth Dent - source: The Washington Institute
Elizabeth Dent
Elizabeth Dent is a Senior Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, where she focuses on U.S. foreign and defense policy toward the Gulf states, Iraq, and Syria.
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