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Military & Security

Policy Analysis on Military & Security

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Brief Analysis
Syria and the Hamas Attack: Another Potential Iran-Backed Front?
New Golan attacks and deployments by Iran-sponsored militias and Syrian forces are creating a worrisome distraction as Israel deals with the crisis on its southern front.
Oct 11, 2023
◆
  • Andrew J. Tabler
Articles & Testimony
Israel Focused on the Wrong Iranian Threat, With Deadly Results
Although the existential nature of the nuclear threat understandably demanded attention, Hamas and other Iranian proxies have dramatically increased their capabilities in the meantime.
Oct 10, 2023
◆
  • David Schenker
Muqwama homosexuality
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Militias Welcome Killing of LGBTQ Celebrity: Coordination Framework Pushes to Make Homosexuality Illegal
Iran-backed militias within the Coordination Framework are leading the call to criminalize alternative lifestyles and celebrating the murder of a queer Iraqi through their social media platforms.
Oct 2, 2023
◆
  • Hamdi Malik
  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight
Houthi fighters parade with their missile systems in Sanaa in September 2023 - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Yemen’s “Southern Hezbollah” Celebrates Coup Anniversary in Deadly Fashion
Ending the war and facilitating other U.S.-Saudi diplomatic tracks is crucial, but neither goal will be served by turning a blind eye to the Houthis’ latest jumps in militarization.
Sep 28, 2023
◆
  • Michael Knights
  • Farzin Nadimi
Islamic State forces, in convoy formation, declare allegiance to new caliph, 2023.
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
Exploiting a "Vast Jihad Arena":
The Islamic State Takes Territory in Mali
The offensive occurred amid a deteriorating security situation across the Sahel that will require creative U.S. responses.
Sep 26, 2023
◆
  • Aaron Y. Zelin
  • Sarah Cahn
Video
Brief Analysis
The October 1973 War Redux: Lessons for Today’s Middle East Policy Challenges
Watch a week-long series of expert webcasts exploring the origins and lasting impact of the October 1973 war.
October 3-5, 2023
◆ The October 1973 War Redux
President Joe Biden arrives in Saudi Arabia in July 2022
Brief Analysis
Israel Normalization Negotiations and the U.S.-Saudi Defense Relationship
In discussing a potential deal with Israel, Riyadh is pressing Washington for expedited access to more advanced U.S. weaponry.
Sep 25, 2023
◆
  • Grant Rumley
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
The Battle for UNIFIL’s Independence (Part 2): Facts on the Ground
The secretary-general’s latest report documents Hezbollah’s expanding violations—and the growing role that Lebanese government officials and military commanders play in abetting this activity.
Sep 21, 2023
◆
  • Matthew Levitt
  • Assaf Orion
United Nations headquarters building in New York - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
The Battle for UNIFIL’s Independence (Part 1): Hezbollah at the UN
Renewing the force’s mandate while blocking Hezbollah’s bid to formally hamstring it are welcome developments, but more concerted diplomatic action will be needed to reverse the downward security trend.
Sep 21, 2023
◆
  • Assaf Orion
  • Matthew Levitt
A photo illustration shows US and Iranian flags and an atomic symbol - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Iran’s Nuclear Diplomacy: Feint and Advance
What Washington considers de-escalation, Tehran sees as an opportunity to consolidate its nuclear gains, avoid accountability, and position itself to cross the nuclear weapons threshold at a time of its choosing.
Sep 14, 2023
◆
  • Michael Singh
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Iran’s Pressure Campaign on Iranian Kurds Continues
Iran has stepped up pressure on Baghdad and Erbil to disarm and relocate Iranian Kurdish opposition parties in the Kurdistan Region amidst ongoing disputes between Erbil and Baghdad over budget and oil revenues.
Sep 13, 2023
◆
  • Wladimir van Wilgenburg
Ships of the US Navy's Fifth Fleet on exercise in the Persian Gulf
Brief Analysis
The Uncertain State of Deterrence in the Persian Gulf
Despite conducting military drills and maintaining a defiant tone, Iran has avoided further ship seizures, but its demonstrated willingness to take assertive action in this zone of “contested deterrence” remains intact.
Sep 13, 2023
◆
  • Farzin Nadimi
Articles & Testimony
Is a New Israel-Hezbollah War Looming?
After many years serving as Iran’s mercenaries in regional wars, Hezbollah leaders now feel compelled to resume their aggressive approach to Israel.
Sep 9, 2023
◆
  • David Schenker
Qais al-Khazali and Hadi al-Ameri
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
The Coordination Framework's Four-Way Split in Provincial Elections (Part 2): Division Over Diyala?
Diyala is the one area where the CF's main militia politicians are competing, with the upstart Qais al-Khazali trying to challenge his elders Hadi al-Ameri and Faleh al-Fayyad in their tribal home province.
Sep 12, 2023
◆
  • Hamdi Malik
  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight
Iraq elections
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
The Coordination Framework's Four-Way Split in Provincial Elections (Part 1): Overarching Trends
Badr, Asaib Ahl al-Haq, and Nouri al-Maliki are testing each other's strength in the south but mostly hanging together in the north.
Sep 11, 2023
◆
  • Hamdi Malik
  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight
A hotel building in Kabul damaged by a bomb claimed by the Islamic State affiliate ISKIP - source: Reuters
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
ISKP Goes Global: External Operations from Afghanistan
Two decades after the 9/11 attacks, Taliban-ruled Afghanistan is once again becoming a haven for terrorist activities abroad—but this time by a local Islamic State branch.
Sep 11, 2023
◆
  • Aaron Y. Zelin
Rayan al-Kildani in a gaudy fake gold chair
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Rayan al-Kildani Pretends to Have a Personal Audience with the Pope
A serious Iraqi human rights abuser sank to new depths to build his credibility after being rejected by the country's Christian leadership.
Sep 8, 2023
◆
  • Yaqoub Beth-Addai
  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Iran’s Misunderstood Nuclear Law
Tehran may argue that its 2020 nuclear law constrains its room for maneuver in any future talks, but its compliance with that law has long been spotty, and officials seem more focused on ensuring that any concessions they make are reversible.
Sep 7, 2023
◆
  • Henry Rome
Aub Zainab al-Lami
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Coordination Framework Militias Exposed for Stealing Baghdad Real Estate
Pressure from Ayatollah Sistani and Sadrists has put Kataib Hezbollah and Asaib Ahl al-Haq on the defensive over their growing illicit property empire.
Aug 31, 2023
◆
  • Michael Knights
  • Amir al-Kaabi
◆ Militia Spotlight
Photo showing an Israeli tank and UN peacekeeping forces on the border with Lebanon.
Video
Brief Analysis
Israel-Lebanon Border Tensions: Hezbollah Provocation, IDF Response, and the Potential for Conflict
Three experts discuss the worsening situation on the ground and assess whether a new war is likely in the near term.
Aug 25, 2023
◆
  • Hanin Ghaddar
  • Assaf Orion
  • Matthew Levitt

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Supported by the

Military and Security Studies Program

The Washington Institute's Military and Security Studies Program has established itself as an unrivaled source of reliable, incisive, and forward-looking analysis concerning several of the most critical national-security challenges facing the United States today: The U.S. military role in the Middle East, Iran's nuclear program and its proxy armies, the ongoing conflict is in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen, the regional proliferation of missiles and weapons of mass destruction, the security dimensions of the Arab-Israeli conflict, and many other security issues on the frontline of the U.S. policymaking agenda.

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Featured experts

Michael Eisenstadt
Michael Eisenstadt
Michael Eisenstadt is the Kahn Senior Fellow and director of The Washington Institute's Military and Security Studies Program.
Michael Knights
Michael Knights
Michael Knights is the Jill and Jay Bernstein Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute and cofounder of the Militia Spotlight platform, which offers in-depth analysis of developments related to Iran-backed militias.
Grant Rumley
Grant Rumley
Grant Rumley is the Meisel-Goldberger Senior Fellow and Director of the Diane and Guilford Glazer Foundation Program on Great Power Competition and the Middle East at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
Elizabeth Dent - source: The Washington Institute
Elizabeth Dent
Elizabeth Dent is a Senior Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, where she focuses on U.S. foreign and defense policy toward the Gulf states, Iraq, and Syria.
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