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Military & Security

Policy Analysis on Military & Security

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Protesters hold Syrian and Hezbollah flags
Brief Analysis
Assessing the Reported Pantsir Delivery to Hezbollah
The antiaircraft system poses a manageable risk to Israeli operations along its northern border, but Washington must show Moscow and its associates that any benefits to such escalation are not worth the costs.
Nov 3, 2023
◆
  • Andrew J. Tabler
  • Anna Borshchevskaya
IDF solders operating inside Gaza in October 2023 - source: Government of Israel
Articles & Testimony
The End of Israel’s Gaza Illusions
The country must come to terms with the fact that this war is deeply different from those it has fought in recent decades, and commit unwaveringly to transforming its security approach.
Nov 3, 2023
◆
  • Assaf Orion
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Hezbollah’s Escalation Ladder
In his highly anticipated first speech since the Hamas massacre, Secretary-General Nasrallah can be expected to offer plenty of bluster and a possible step up the escalation ladder, but his group has an interest in avoiding all-out war.
Nov 2, 2023
◆
  • Matthew Levitt
Akram
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Potential Escalation in Iraq (Part 2): Asaib and Nujaba
Asaib Ahl al-Haq, Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba, and their facade group partners may soon step up their attacks amid the Hamas-Israel war, albeit within limits set by Iran.
Nov 1, 2023
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  • Hamdi Malik
  • Crispin Smith
  • Ameer al-Kaabi
  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight
Chinese and U.S. flags flutter at a trade meeting in Shanghai
Articles & Testimony
The United States’ Indo-Pacific Strategy
While Washington can do more diplomatically, the most glaring gap in U.S. regional engagement is economic, leaving Beijing unchallenged and American allies unsupported.
Nov 1, 2023
◆
  • Michael Singh
Iraq escalation
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Potential Escalation in Iraq (Part 1): Khamenei and Badr
Iraqi "resistance" elements are becoming more bellicose in their rhetoric against the American presence, signaling a new level of escalation against U.S. troops as part of their efforts to support Hamas in the Gaza war.
Nov 1, 2023
◆
  • Hamdi Malik
  • Michael Knights
  • Crispin Smith
  • Ameer al-Kaabi
◆ Militia Spotlight
Arab tribes in Syria
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Profile: Liwa al-Baqir
This Syrian militia based in Aleppo and Deir al-Zour has developed a uniquely close relationship with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Assad regime.
Nov 1, 2023
◆
  • Abdullah Hayek
  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight: Profiles
Sons of Jazeera and Euphrates Movement
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Profile: The Sons of Jazira and Euphrates Movement
This Ougaidat tribal militia has undertaken attacks on multiple Syrian Kurdish and U.S. sites, with support from Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the Assad regime.
Oct 31, 2023
◆
  • Abdullah Hayek
◆ Militia Spotlight: Profiles
Brief Analysis
Israel’s Campaign Against Hamas in Gaza: War Aims and Operational Challenges
The goal of destroying Hamas will require a prolonged military effort, but the longer the fighting drags on, the less likely Israel will be to retain the freedom of action needed to achieve its war aims.
Oct 31, 2023
◆
  • Michael Eisenstadt
Sons of Jazeera
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Anti-U.S. Attacks Linked to the Sons of Jazira and Euphrates Movement
The "Jazira" brand has begun claiming, through very transparent communiques, that it is undertaking rocket attacks on U.S. bases in Syria.
Oct 27, 2023
◆
  • Hamdi Malik
  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight
A man carries Iranian and Palestinian flags at a pro-Hamas rally in Tehran in October 2023 - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
Beyond Gaza, the Confrontation with Iran
By supporting Hamas’s operation, the Islamic Republic managed to subvert a broad emerging Arab-Israel partnership—but Israeli success in destroying the group’s military capabilities could turn the tables.
Oct 26, 2023
◆
  • Ehud Yaari
Articles & Testimony
Syria Strikes Show U.S. a “Cool Customer” in Containing Gaza Crisis...for Now
Iran-backed groups have remained on the move since October 7, likely accounting for the increase in Israeli strike activity.
Oct 26, 2023
◆
  • Andrew J. Tabler
AWH threat against U.S. bases in Kuwait and the UAE, October 24, 2023
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Kataib Hezbollah's Facade Group Threatens Gulf States Again
An Iran-aligned group that presaged two previous drone attacks on Gulf cities has issued a new threat against U.S. targets in Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates.
Oct 24, 2023
◆
  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight
A Marine Corps training jet on board the USS Gerald Ford, CVN-78 - source: Department of Defense
Articles & Testimony
Will Hezbollah Target American Assets Amid Israel’s War on Gaza?
Iranian proxies are deliberately escalating against American forces in the region as a warning against continued support for Israel’s war, but Hezbollah attacks would take the crisis to a different level.
Oct 23, 2023
◆
  • David Schenker
Ships of the US Navy's Fifth Fleet on exercise in the Persian Gulf
Articles & Testimony
The Risks of a Wider War with Iran and Its Proxies
Beefing up U.S. naval deployments is not enough to boost deterrence—Washington must also respond decisively to proxy attacks on its forces and increase economic pressure on Tehran.
Oct 23, 2023
◆
  • David Schenker
Articles & Testimony
The Mission Ahead for Israel
Although the immediate goal is to destroy Hamas’s terrorist regime in Gaza, there is no viable alternative to a political solution in the longer term.
Oct 21, 2023
◆
  • Zohar Palti
  • Neomi Neumann
Figure 1 Islamic Resistance taking responsibility for targeting Tanf
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Profile: The Islamic Resistance in Iraq
The Telegram brand that emerged in October 2023 is not a group per se, but rather a generic name used to denote unity among Iran-backed armed groups and deemphasize their individual identities during attacks spurred by the Gaza war.
Oct 21, 2023
◆
  • Hamdi Malik
  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight: Profiles
Secretary of State Antony Blinken places a tile that reads "Light in the darkness" on a wall at the Abrahamic Family House in Abu Dhabi, October 14, 2023.
Video
Brief Analysis
The Israel-Hamas War and U.S. Policy: An Update
A panel of experts discuss the status of the crisis after nearly two weeks of fighting, focusing on President Biden’s visit, the contours of humanitarian assistance, ongoing de-escalation efforts, and more.
Oct 20, 2023
◆
  • Zohar Palti
  • David Makovsky
  • Grant Rumley
  • Ghaith al-Omari
  • Neomi Neumann
U.S. and Iranian flags
Articles & Testimony
America’s Failing Iran Nuclear Policy: Time for a Course Adjustment
Policymakers need to stay focused on halting the regime’s fissile material buildup while undertaking a broader, longer-term effort to shape its assessment of the risks, costs, and utility of nuclear weapons.
Oct 20, 2023
◆
  • Michael Eisenstadt
Figure 3 A 5x3 cube of 107mm rockets, Baghdad, October 19, 2023.
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Facade Group Linked to Iran Claims Five Attacks on Americans in Iraq and Syria
A new Telegram account claiming anti-U.S. attacks is linked to Iran's Qods Force and other designated terrorist organizations.
Oct 20, 2023
◆
  • Amir al-Kaabi
  • Michael Knights
  • Hamdi Malik
◆ Militia Spotlight

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Military and Security Studies Program

The Washington Institute's Military and Security Studies Program has established itself as an unrivaled source of reliable, incisive, and forward-looking analysis concerning several of the most critical national-security challenges facing the United States today: The U.S. military role in the Middle East, Iran's nuclear program and its proxy armies, the ongoing conflict is in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen, the regional proliferation of missiles and weapons of mass destruction, the security dimensions of the Arab-Israeli conflict, and many other security issues on the frontline of the U.S. policymaking agenda.

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Featured experts

Michael Eisenstadt
Michael Eisenstadt
Michael Eisenstadt is the Kahn Senior Fellow and director of The Washington Institute's Military and Security Studies Program.
Michael Knights
Michael Knights
Michael Knights is the Jill and Jay Bernstein Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute and cofounder of the Militia Spotlight platform, which offers in-depth analysis of developments related to Iran-backed militias.
Grant Rumley
Grant Rumley
Grant Rumley is the Meisel-Goldberger Senior Fellow and Director of the Diane and Guilford Glazer Foundation Program on Great Power Competition and the Middle East at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
Elizabeth Dent - source: The Washington Institute
Elizabeth Dent
Elizabeth Dent is a Senior Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, where she focuses on U.S. foreign and defense policy toward the Gulf states, Iraq, and Syria.
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