Lebanon

Like his recently killed predecessor, Ibrahim Aqil had a long history of murdering Americans, Europeans, Israelis, Lebanese, and others perceived as obstacles to Hezbollah’s ambitions, and his experience as a military and terrorist commander will be difficult to replace.

Israel’s cloak-and-dagger pager ploy was extraordinary, but will it change the group’s calculus?

As the war in Gaza seemingly winds down, the old rules no longer apply in the north.

Given the current lack of viable security alternatives on the Israel-Lebanon border, Washington may try to patch up UNIFIL’s many deficiencies—but it must do so with a clear understanding that the force has repeatedly failed its mission and squandered its credibility.

The 30,000-strong militia has ground forces massed along the frontier, preventing evacuated Israelis from returning home and increasing the risk of a war that both sides would rather postpone for now.

Four Washington Institute experts assess Israel’s calculus behind launching such high-profile attacks at this juncture, the likely effects on the Gaza hostage talks, Iran’s possible need for a face-saving military response, and more.

The challenge is to find a common line that accounts for different national positions on regional issues while still promoting a coherent foreign policy.

The deal could eventually boost supplies to Egypt, though Hezbollah’s robust missile arsenal and public threats against East Mediterranean energy targets may dampen broader regional investment in the sector.

If Hezbollah’s conflict with Israel widens, the group could use its large missile and drone arsenal to attack Cyprus, the allied military presence based there, and a wide array of shipping and energy assets in the East Mediterranean.