Lebanon

Policy Analysis on Lebanon

There Is No Better Time to Disarm Hezbollah

With the group and its Iranian patrons at their weakest point in decades, Beirut has a real opportunity to restore its sovereignty, but waiting for another futile “national dialogue” may close that window.

Apr 23, 2025

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David Schenker

A photo illustration depicts Israeli and Palestinian flags - source: Reuters

Articles & Testimony

Surprisingly, the Lebanon-Israel Cease-Fire Is Holding

The agreement has withstood all challenges so far, thanks in large part to the mechanism that Israel and the United States set up to ensure Hezbollah's southern assets are addressed—one way or another.

Apr 4, 2025

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David Schenker

A UNIFIL peacekeeper on duty in Lebanon - source: United Nations

Brief Analysis

Lebanon-Syria Border Talks Can Restrain Hezbollah and Boost Security

By encouraging the new Saudi-mediated talks with Damascus, Washington and its partners can help secure Beirut’s sovereignty, contain Hezbollah smuggling, and stabilize Lebanon’s other border with Israel.

Apr 3, 2025

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Hanin Ghaddar

Screenshot from MarineTraffic shows tracks of the Marina between Cyprus and Syria on March 28, 2025.

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Hezbollah-Linked LPG Tanker Sails to East Mediterranean

Past ties between the Marina and the Lebanese terrorist group, along with the ship’s deceptive practices at sea, merit U.S. scrutiny.

Mar 28, 2025

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Noam Raydan

◆ Maritime Spotlight

Flags of Gulf Cooperation Council countries and Turkey on display in Riyadh

Articles & Testimony

Lessons from the Middle East’s Unfinished War

Definitive conclusions about the post-October 7 environment remain elusive, but it is not too early to draw lessons and consider the problems and opportunities that may arise from the recent upheaval in 2025.

Mar 25, 2025

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Michael Singh

The Mari-B and Tamar gas platforms in the Mediterranean Sea off the coast of Israel - source: The Washington Institute

Brief Analysis

New Gas Licenses Go Ahead on the Israel-Lebanon Maritime Border

Hezbollah’s recent military defeat and the 2022 Israel-Lebanon maritime agreement mediated by Washington have enabled exploration in a distant corner of Israel’s exclusive economic zone.

Mar 24, 2025

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Simon Henderson

A United Nations peacepeeker scans the terrain in southern Lebanon - source: Untied Nations

Brief Analysis

Moving Past “Wait and See” in South Lebanon: The U.S.-French Role

The announcement of "working groups" between Israel and Lebanon comes at a key juncture in the ceasefire, and complementary action by the United States and France can facilitate full implementation.

Mar 18, 2025

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Souhire Medini

Sunbathers gather on Al-Baida beach in Lebanon - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

Trump Should Aim for a “Riviera” in Lebanon

Beirut stands at the goal line of a major win for the Middle East, but only if America quarterbacks the last push.

Mar 3, 2025

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Hanin Ghaddar
Zohar Palti

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Hassan Nasrallah's Funeral: Iraqi Militia Response and Attendance

Most of the top militia leaders appeared too cowed to show up, but a wide assortment of senior Iraqi "resistance" and political figures did attend, including potential future candidates for prime minister.

Feb 27, 2025

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Ameer al-Kaabi
Hamdi Malik
Michael Knights

◆ Militia Spotlight

Photo of Shia women returning to their war-damaged village in south Lebanon.

Video

Brief Analysis

Next Steps in Lebanon: From Ceasefire Extensions to Government Formation

Former military officials and experts from Lebanon and Israel discuss how Beirut’s unsettled political dynamics might affect ongoing implementation of the ceasefire and future peacebuilding efforts.

Feb 14, 2025

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Fadi Daoud
Makram Rabah
Efraim Defrin
Assaf Orion

A general view of Lebanon's Government Palace in Beirut, taken in 2023 - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

Lebanon’s New Government May Walk a Thin Line Between Promises and Compromises

The new cabinet appointments appeared to sideline Hezbollah’s camp, but the group retained control over the crucial Finance Ministry and may find other ways of interfering with security decisions, the reconstruction process, and the next elections.

Feb 12, 2025

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Hanin Ghaddar

A local resident walks in front of a sign promoting a USAID-funded project in Hebron - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

Trump’s Foreign Assistance Review Prioritizes Funding Over Policy

Cutting aid programs is not inherently wrong—but making those cuts before assessing their specific impact on regional allies and American lives could be disastrous for U.S. policy in the Middle East.

Feb 5, 2025

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Ben Fishman

Articles & Testimony

How Hezbollah Ends: A Better Lebanon Is Possible

Weakening Hezbollah permanently will be difficult, but for once the goal is attainable—if Beirut has the courage to keep the group out of Lebanon’s coffers and make the army do its job.

Feb 4, 2025

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Hanin Ghaddar

Map released as part of the November 2024 Israel-Lebanon ceasefire.

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

So Far So Good? The Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire Is Largely Holding

The agreement’s implementation phase is going surprisingly well and has been extended, but maintaining the ceasefire will require officials to resolve the issues in dispute and address Hezbollah’s threats.

Jan 28, 2025

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Assaf Orion

Lebanonese prime minister Nawaf Salam speaks to the press in January 2025 - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

Lebanon’s New Prime Minister Approaches the Next Crossroads on Hezbollah

Salam has promised to enforce accountability and implement the ceasefire with Israel; independent Shia cabinet ministers can help him reach those goals while showing there is an alternative to Hezbollah.

Jan 21, 2025

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Hanin Ghaddar
Ehud Yaari

Newly elected Lebanese president Joseph Aoun reviews soldiers at the presidential palace in Beirut - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

Will Lebanon’s New Leaders Walk the Walk?

The new president and prime minister do not have a strong track record of confronting Hezbollah, but Washington should still be bold in supporting their stated commitments to reform, disarmament, and economic recovery.

Jan 16, 2025

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David Schenker

Video

Brief Analysis

Lebanon Ceasefire: Status and Prospects of the Israel-Hezbollah Truce

Watch or read remarks from a former LAF general, the IDF’s former head of strategic planning, and an expert Lebanon analyst during a new series of virtual panels held by The Washington Institute.

Jan 13, 2025

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Khalil Helou
Tal Kelman
Hanin Ghaddar

Articles & Testimony

Lebanon Headed Towards Promised Sovereignty

Choosing a reform-minded president would be a good first step, but absent a concerted effort to consolidate the setbacks to Hezbollah, the organization will simply reassert its murderous grip.

Jan 8, 2025

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David Schenker

Iran's president-elect Pezeshkian speaks in Tehran - source: Reuters

Articles & Testimony

A Fateful Debate in Tehran

After blows to Iranian proxies across the region, reformists led by President Pezeshkian are prioritizing diplomacy and economic recovery, whereas hardliners are lamenting lost battlefield opportunities and seeking to preserve the regime.

Dec 30, 2024

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Ehud Yaari

Brief Analysis

Don’t Assume Iran’s Supply Lines to Hezbollah Are Cut

Tehran’s past efforts to reconstitute the group have passed through more difficult environments than post-Assad Syria, but an economical U.S.-led effort can complicate future smuggling efforts and further other counterterrorism goals in the process.

Dec 12, 2024

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Michael Knights

Supported by the

Linda and Tony Rubin Program on Arab Politics

The Washington Institute's Linda and Tony Rubin Program on Arab Politics focuses on social, political, and economic developments in the Arab world, with an emphasis on the Arab countries of the Levant.

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Matthew Levitt

Matthew Levitt is the Fromer-Wexler Senior Fellow and director of the Reinhard Program on Counterterrorism and Intelligence at The Washington Institute.

Hanin Ghaddar

Hanin Ghaddar is the Friedmann Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute's Rubin Family Arab Politics Program, where she focuses on Shia politics throughout the Levant.

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