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Gulf States

Policy Analysis on Gulf States

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Brief Analysis
Saudi Arabia Increases Its Cooperation with World’s Nuclear Watchdog
The small but significant step could facilitate U.S. technology transfers to the kingdom, said to be a key element in any potential Israeli-Saudi normalization deal—but proliferation concerns persist.
Aug 8, 2024
◆
  • Simon Henderson
President Joe Biden arrives in Saudi Arabia in July 2022
Articles & Testimony
Biden’s Middle East Moonshot
Reaching a Gaza ceasefire and Israeli-Saudi normalization deal will require intense, well-coordinated diplomatic efforts in a condensed timeline, but the administration can do it with help from the “Arab Quint.”
Aug 7, 2024
◆
  • Dennis Ross
Houthi colonel Hussein Abdullah Mastour, killed by the US in Iraq on July 30, 2024
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Houthi Missile Forces Colonel Killed at Iraqi Government Base in Jurf al-Sakhar
A senior missile specialist from Yemen was killed alongside Iraqi members of Kataib Hezbollah, underlining the government's cooperation with domestic and foreign terrorist groups.
Aug 6, 2024
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  • Michael Knights
  • Ameer al-Kaabi
◆ Militia Spotlight
Screenshot excerpt of a StoryMap covering maritime attacks in the Middle East.
Maps & Graphics
Articles & Testimony
Tracking Maritime Attacks in the Middle East Since 2019
An interactive map showing the extent to which Houthi forces, their Iranian military patrons, and other actors have been targeting vessels in regional waterways for years, including well before the Hamas-Israel war.
Aug 3, 2024
◆
  • Noam Raydan
  • Farzin Nadimi
◆ Maritime Spotlight
Russian president Vladimir Putin inspects a rifle while touring an arms factory in 2014 - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Countering Russia’s Strategy of Arming Anti-American Proxies
From rumored Houthi missile upgrades to Libyan arms deliveries by the ton, Moscow is doing all it can to empower hostile forces and undermine stability in the Middle East.
Aug 2, 2024
◆
  • Anna Borshchevskaya
Houthi missile hits Chios Lion tanker, Red Sea, July 2024.
Maps & Graphics
Houthi Attacks on Russia-Linked Tankers
Available data suggests the Yemeni group has been going after vessels carrying Russian cargo, particularly if an operator's ships have visited Israeli ports.
Jul 26, 2024
◆
  • Noam Raydan
  • Farzin Nadimi
◆ Maritime Spotlight
The flag of Oman - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Responding to the Islamic State Attack in Oman
Although the mosque shooting was unprecedented in Oman, it fits with the terrorist group’s long practice of massacring Shia Muslims in the Gulf and beyond.
Jul 24, 2024
◆
  • Aaron Y. Zelin
  • Elizabeth Dent
A fuel depot burns near the Yemeni port of Hodeida following overnight Israeli airstrikes - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
To Stop Israeli Attacks on Yemen, Enforce Sanctions on the Iran-Houthi Link
The humanitarian consequences of Israel’s port attack are real but should not be overstated, particularly when the true culprits behind Yemen’s persistent fuel shortages and famine risks are Iran and the Houthis.
Jul 22, 2024
◆
  • Michael Knights
Then Vice President Joe Biden meets with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu in 2010 - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
Biden’s Legacy and Netanyahu’s Missed Moment?
The coming months still hold hope for the president’s dream of Israeli-Saudi normalization, but only if Netanyahu stands up to his far-right coalition partners.
Jul 22, 2024
◆
  • David Makovsky
A screenshot from MarineTraffic shows the past tracks of the livestock carrier Shorthorn Express (IMO 9167318), which as of July 2, 2024, was sailing toward the British Isles.
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Are the Houthis Attacking Ships in the Mediterranean?
Direct strikes from the Yemeni group are unlikely at the moment, but a more aggressive Hezbollah could alter the threat picture.
Jul 3, 2024
◆
  • Noam Raydan
  • Farzin Nadimi
◆ Maritime Spotlight
The U.S. Navy aircraft carriers Harry S. Truman and Dwight D. Eisenhower on joint operations in the CENTCOM region - source: Department of Defense
Brief Analysis
Carrier Gap Increases the Red Sea’s Vulnerability to Houthi Attacks
To fill the capabilities gap between carrier groups and prepare for potential Houthi escalation in the next few weeks, the United States and its partners need to implement stopgap measures and, ideally, surge more military assets into the region temporarily.
Jun 28, 2024
◆
  • Elizabeth Dent
Egyptian prime minister Mostafa Madbouly greets Ukrainian president Volodimir Zelensky in Kyiv in 2023 - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Dueling Summits Show the Need to Enlist Arab Support on Ukraine
Key Middle East actors tend to distrust the U.S. narrative about the war and conclude they can reap better economic benefits from Russia, so Washington should do more to get them off the sidelines.
Jun 28, 2024
◆
  • Anna Borshchevskaya
An explosion hits the civilian cargo vessel MV Tutor in the Red Sea - source: Houthi Media Center
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Houthi Ship Attacks Pose a Longer-Term Challenge to Regional Security and Trade Plans
The immediate effects of the Houthi antishipping campaign are measurably serious, but the United States, Saudi Arabia, and other partners also need to prepare for the emboldened group to exert its newfound leverage in other ways beyond the Gaza war.
Jun 26, 2024
◆
  • Noam Raydan
NATO member flags fly at half-staff in solidarity with victims of the November 2015 Paris terror attacks - source: NATO
Brief Analysis
The NATO Summit Is Another Chance to Counter Russia in the “South”
The alliance has already been shifting toward greater engagement with the Middle East and Africa, but various maritime and infrastructure threats require more urgent attention, as does the broader problem of countering Moscow’s narrative.
Jun 25, 2024
◆
  • Anna Borshchevskaya
Houthi claims
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Iraqi Groups and Yemen's Houthis Claim More Joint Attacks on Israel
The Iraqi "resistance" and their Iran-backed fellow travelers in Yemen have added a new example of jointly branded attacks to their growing list of collaborative claims.
Jun 17, 2024
◆
  • Hamdi Malik
  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight
Brief Analysis
Energy Watchdog Predicts Big Oil Surplus by 2030
Implied lower prices would weaken economic forecasts for major Middle East oil producers.
Jun 14, 2024
◆
  • Simon Henderson
Kuwait City at sunset.
Brief Analysis
A Kuwaiti Reset?
The new emir’s suspension of parliament, followed by the appointment of a prime minister and crown prince, suggests a different direction for the oil-rich Gulf state.
Jun 7, 2024
◆
  • Simon Henderson
  • David Schenker
Marshall Islands–flagged bulk carrier Laax (IMO 9512355), which was attacked in the southern Red Sea on May 28, 2024. photo obtained via the X/Twitter account of French forces stationed in the UAE and deployed in the Indian Ocean, https://x.com/FFEAU_ALINDIEN/status/1795837694960189920.
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Behind Houthi Attacks on Ships Operated by Greece-Based Companies
Links to Israel-linked companies, especially in light of the Rafah invasion, are again the culprit.
May 31, 2024
◆
  • Noam Raydan
  • Farzin Nadimi
◆ Maritime Spotlight
Video
Brief Analysis
Pursuing a Stable Peace in Yemen that Preserves U.S. Interests
The U.S. ambassador to Yemen joins an expert conflict practitioner to discuss Washington’s policy options for resolving the civil war.
May 31, 2024
◆
  • Nadwa Al-Dawsari
  • Steven Fagin
U.S. and Saudi air force officers greet one another during a joint exercise - source: Department of Defense
Brief Analysis
Security Cooperation in a Changed Region: How to Advance the U.S.-GCC Defense Working Groups
From aligning weapons acquisition strategies and improving intelligence sharing to getting the diplomatic framing right, U.S. officials can do more to advance regional air defense and maritime security through this week’s working groups and beyond.
May 21, 2024
◆
  • Dana Stroul
◆ Risks and Opportunities in the Post-April 13 Middle East

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Supported by the

Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy

The Washington Institute's Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy embodies the Institute's long-term research focus on the conservative Arab Gulf states -- Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman -- and the key role these countries play collectively as a primary source of the world's oil and natural gas.

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Featured experts

Michael Eisenstadt
Michael Eisenstadt
Michael Eisenstadt is the Kahn Senior Fellow and director of The Washington Institute's Military and Security Studies Program.
Simon Henderson
Simon Henderson
Simon Henderson is the Baker Senior Fellow and director of the Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy at The Washington Institute, specializing in energy matters and the conservative Arab states of the Persian Gulf.
Michael Knights
Michael Knights
Michael Knights is the Jill and Jay Bernstein Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute and cofounder of the Militia Spotlight platform, which offers in-depth analysis of developments related to Iran-backed militias.
Elizabeth Dent - source: The Washington Institute
Elizabeth Dent
Elizabeth Dent is a Senior Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, where she focuses on U.S. foreign and defense policy toward the Gulf states, Iraq, and Syria.
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