Great Power Competition

Efforts to counter Iran in Syria are solely focused on Iran’s military presence in the country, and have ignored the soft-power, cultural spheres of influence being developed by Iran as a long-term strategy.

Much has been made about their growing ties, but an in-depth look at their actual activity in various sectors shows that alarmism is unwarranted.

Although establishing ties between Turkey and the Syrian regime may seem like a smart move by Erdogan, the decision represents a betrayal of the Syrian people and its success is not guaranteed for the Turkish government.

Besides signaling that Iran has shifted to active military support for Russia’s war in Ukraine, the prospective transfer gives Moscow a stopgap option until its own advanced drones are ready for service.

Given their proven capacity for jointly disrupting Western imperatives in the Middle East, both countries should increasingly be treated as part of the same strategic set.

The Ukraine war has not only reaffirmed Erdogan’s remarkable political survival skills, but also highlighted the degree to which Ankara’s improved diplomatic standing is traceable to its success in exporting an innovative drone-centered military operational approach.

Moscow and Tehran may well assent to another cross-border operation, but Turkey’s choice of targets will depend on multiple U.S., Russian, and Iranian interests.

Although alternatives to the UN mechanism carry uncertainties of their own, continuing the broken status quo will only boost Moscow, endanger Syrian civilians, and help the Assad regime avoid sanctions—not to mention whetting his appetite for natural gas shipments.

Unless the West can prod the Russian people to fundamentally reexamine their core beliefs, any notion that they will take matters into their own hands regarding Putin’s Ukraine war is just wishful thinking.