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All Policy Analysis by Andrew J. Tabler
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Brief Analysis
On Syria Aid, Don’t Bet on the Security Council
Seventeen Russian vetoes have hobbled the council’s ability to keep humanitarian assistance flowing, so Washington and its allies should look to the General Assembly instead—or take matters into their own hands on the Turkish border.
Jul 19, 2023
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Andrew J. Tabler
Anna Borshchevskaya
Brief Analysis
Wagner vs. Russia’s Defense Ministry in the Middle East
Russia’s domestic military crisis could hold significant consequences for its regional operations, from heightening the risk of clashes with U.S. forces in Syria to putting a public face on its destabilizing activities in Libya.
Jun 29, 2023
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Anna Borshchevskaya
Ben Fishman
Andrew J. Tabler
Articles & Testimony
How the Caesar Act Restricts Normalisation with Syria
The landmark legislation has played a critical role in the evolution of American sanctions, and follow-on congressional restrictions will largely prevent any efforts to bring Assad back into the economic fold.
Jun 17, 2023
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Andrew J. Tabler
Matthew Zweig
Articles & Testimony
Navigating Press Conferences and Palaces
Separating propaganda from truth has always been a challenge in places like Syria, but it is increasingly so in Washington as well given the rise of myriad forms of misinformation.
April 28, 2023
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Andrew J. Tabler
Video
Articles & Testimony
Middle East Matters: Back to Normal? The Region Reaches Out to Assad
Two experts discuss why Arab governments are increasingly normalizing with the Syrian regime and what consequences this may hold for U.S. policy.
Apr 25, 2023
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Andrew J. Tabler
Ahed al-Hendi
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Middle East Matters
Articles & Testimony
Don’t Throw Good Arab Money After Bad in Syria
The Gulf states have their own reasons for reaching out to Assad, but they need to understand that Washington will not exempt them from most of its multilayered Syria sanctions without substantial change in the regime’s posture.
Apr 7, 2023
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Andrew J. Tabler
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Iran’s Tensions with Azerbaijan Point to Broader Shifts in the South Caucasus
Amid flare-ups in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Iran and Russia are keeping a watchful eye on developments in the South Caucasus, from Israel’s warming relations with Baku to potentially shifting control over regional transport corridors.
Mar 31, 2023
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Anna Borshchevskaya
Andrew J. Tabler
Video
Brief Analysis
Earthquake in Syria and Turkey: U.S. Policy Implications
A panel of experts offers on-the-ground insights from the disaster zone and discusses the political and policy consequences of the still-unfolding humanitarian crisis.
Feb 17, 2023
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Can Selcuki
Amany Qaddour
Soner Cagaptay
Andrew J. Tabler
Brief Analysis
Helping Syrian Earthquake Victims, Not Assad
Washington should take steps to ensure that the Treasury Department’s latest general license does not create new loopholes for the regime, its patrons in Moscow and Tehran, or its foreign terrorist partners.
Feb 16, 2023
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Andrew J. Tabler
Video
The Symptom and the Disease: Cholera and State Collapse in Syria and Lebanon
What has caused Lebanon's devastating cholera epidemic, and why haven't authorities and healthcare professionals been able to stop it?
Jan 31, 2023
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Hanin Ghaddar
Andrew J. Tabler
Brief Analysis
Russia’s Yes Vote on Syria Aid Will Come With a Price
Moscow’s willingness to approve another UN extension has more to do with advancing normalization between Turkey and the Assad regime than helping Syrian civilians, who will remain hostage to Russian demands if nothing is done before the next vote this summer.
Jan 11, 2023
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Anna Borshchevskaya
Andrew J. Tabler
Brief Analysis
To Ease Syria’s Energy Crisis, Assad Must Return to the Negotiating Table
Washington can help alleviate the country's fuel crisis, but only if Damascus and Moscow agree to extend the cross-border aid mechanism and resume progress toward a final political settlement.
Dec 22, 2022
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Andrew J. Tabler
Erik Yavorsky
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Israel’s Karish Gas Field: Diplomatic Opportunity or Casus Belli?
Seven experts examine how the fraught decision to start production might affect Beirut’s negotiating stance, Hezbollah’s military calculus, U.S.-Israel relations, and other factors.
Sep 20, 2022
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Simon Henderson
Hanin Ghaddar
Matthew Levitt
Ehud Yaari
David Makovsky
David Schenker
Andrew J. Tabler
Brief Analysis
Will the Putin-Erdogan-Raisi Summit Spark a Turkish Incursion into Syria?
Moscow and Tehran may well assent to another cross-border operation, but Turkey’s choice of targets will depend on multiple U.S., Russian, and Iranian interests.
Jul 18, 2022
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Soner Cagaptay
Andrew J. Tabler
Brief Analysis
Time to Develop a Plan B for Syria Aid
Although alternatives to the UN mechanism carry uncertainties of their own, continuing the broken status quo will only boost Moscow, endanger Syrian civilians, and help the Assad regime avoid sanctions—not to mention whetting his appetite for natural gas shipments.
Jul 14, 2022
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Anna Borshchevskaya
Louis Dugit-Gros
Andrew J. Tabler
Brief Analysis
Recasting Syria’s Cross-Border Aid Debate
The UN aid mechanism is alive for another six months, but the threat of famine, Russian vetoes, and military escalation will persist unless Washington takes appropriate steps before the next round of renewal negotiations.
Jan 21, 2022
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Anna Borshchevskaya
Andrew J. Tabler
Calvin Wilder
Articles & Testimony
Solving Syria’s Crisis Starts with Sanctioning Iranian Oil
Instead of quietly greenlighting the Assad regime’s diplomatic rehabilitation, U.S. officials should escalate economic pressure on its Iranian enablers to regain leverage at the negotiating table.
Jan 3, 2022
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Andrew J. Tabler
Matthew Zweig
In-Depth Reports
Power to the People?
Scrutinizing the U.S.-Arab Effort to Supply Energy to Lebanon via Syria
Residents of the beleaguered country desperately need electricity, but a U.S.-Arab scheme carries complications that could benefit Syria's Assad regime.
Dec 16, 2021
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Katherine Bauer
Ben Fishman
Hanin Ghaddar
Simon Henderson
David Schenker
Andrew J. Tabler
Video
Brief Analysis
Affirming U.S. Commitments Abroad: The View from Syria’s Democratic Council
The head of the council joins two Washington Institute experts for a far-ranging conversation on the U.S. role in the northeast, Kurdish threat perceptions, the effect of the Afghanistan withdrawal, and more.
Sep 29, 2021
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Elham Ahmad
Andrew J. Tabler
David Pollock
Articles & Testimony
The Search for a Syria Strategy: What Biden Can Learn From Trump’s Successes and Failures
Washington needs a special envoy to develop a coherent, intelligence-supported political strategy aimed at isolating Assad, limiting his facilitators, and enabling humanitarian NGOs.
Jul 27, 2021
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Andrew J. Tabler
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