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Turkey

Policy Analysis on Turkey

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Brief Analysis
Round One of Idlib Campaign May Target Turkish-Backed Rebels
If Assad and his allies stick with their past strategy, the initial offensive will likely be limited, though it will still spur massive refugee flows and a serious breach between Turkey and Russia.
Sep 11, 2018
◆
  • Fabrice Balanche
Trump in a Meeting with Putin
Articles & Testimony
On Syria, the U.S. Can Drive a Hard Bargain with Russia
Putin gives nothing away without a price. To protect America’s interests, neither should Trump.
Sep 9, 2018
◆
  • Dennis Ross
Brief Analysis
Syrian Refugees in Turkey
The continued difficulty of integrating so many displaced people could make Ankara more amenable to a political solution that ends the war and allows large numbers of them to return home.
Aug 22, 2018
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
  • Maya Yalkin
Video
Brief Analysis
Turkey Sanctions: Navigating a Historic Bilateral Crisis
Three experts examine the past drivers and near-term consequences of Washington’s rapidly escalating diplomatic conflict with Ankara.
Aug 17, 2018
◆
  • Amanda Sloat
  • Max Hoffman
  • Steven Cook
Articles & Testimony
Turkey’s Economy May Be in Freefall, But Erdogan’s Base Believes He Can Do No Wrong
The president has cultivated an adoring crowd of inflexible ‘Erdoganists’ who feed on the politics of resentment and reject Ataturk’s pro-Western legacy entirely.
Aug 16, 2018
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
U.S. Sanctions Could Hurt Turkish Economy but Strengthen Erdogan
An economic meltdown may simply push his supporters to dig in on a worldview that posits unending Western assaults against the Turkish nation and wider Muslim community.
Aug 7, 2018
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
The New Sultan and the Crisis of Modern Turkey
Rather than addressing the polarization his policies have caused, Erdogan seems set on a 'muddle through' strategy that will keep the country in a permanent state of social conflict.
Aug 1, 2018
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Political Divide Deepening in Turkey as Erdogan Assumes More Power
With the president aiming to force a dominant-party system on a split electorate, Turkish society may be headed for a long-term political crisis.
Jul 12, 2018
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Turkey's Historic Election: What to Expect Next?
Leading experts discuss how the results will affect Erdogan's foreign policy, the political potency of ascendant ultranationalists, and the opposition's chances of staying united.
Jun 29, 2018
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
  • Lisel Hintz
  • Nick Danforth
  • Rich Outzen
Articles & Testimony
As a 'Kingmaker,' Turkey’s Nationalist Faction Could Bring Trouble
Erdogan's trickiest challenge will be staving off MHP pressure on Russian and Kurdish issues while keeping the party from taking down his government.
Jun 28, 2018
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Erdogan's Victory Could Actually Improve U.S.-Turkish Relations
Turkey’s decisive election results and shaky geopolitical situation could make it more amenable to addressing U.S. concerns about Russian weapons sales, Iranian adventurism, and other key security issues.
Jun 27, 2018
◆
  • James Jeffrey
Articles & Testimony
Four Things to Watch in Turkey's Elections
The formation of a large opposition block and other electoral dynamics are clouding Erdogan’s longer-term political future.
Jun 21, 2018
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
There Is Hope for Democracy in Turkey, Even If Erdogan Wins Again
Three ascending candidates are whittling away at Erdogan's base, posing a long-term challenge to his rule even if they can't unseat him in this election.
Jun 20, 2018
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
Turkish president Erdogan - Source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
Erdogan Enters Turkish Elections with More Power but Less Support
The president will probably become even more authoritarian in the coming months, knowing that a majority of citizens would vote him out in a fair election.
Jun 20, 2018
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
In Search of a New Patron, the KRG Turns Back to Moscow
As the Iraqi Kurds reach out to Russia, the Kremlin’s sway over their politics and energy resources is growing.
Jun 14, 2018
◆
  • Anna Borshchevskaya
  • Bilal Wahab
Brief Analysis
Will U.S.-Turkish Progress on Manbij Lead to Wider Cooperation in Syria?
The feuding NATO allies have apparently agreed on a concrete roadmap for rolling back the Kurds, but broader strategic cooperation would require them to overcome tall political obstacles.
Jun 5, 2018
◆
  • James Jeffrey
Articles & Testimony
Why Talks with the Turks Matter More Than Ever
U.S. and Turkish officials have four main security and legal disputes to work out, and the geopolitical stakes are immense.
Jun 4, 2018
◆
  • James Jeffrey
Brief Analysis
Sanctions on Turkey: Reconciling Washington’s Diverging Views
Despite the deep-seated problems roiling the bilateral relationship, U.S. legislators need to understand the potentially dire geopolitical consequences of putting heavy pressure on a fellow NATO member.
Jun 1, 2018
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
U.S. Could Stop Turkey, Not Yet a Moscow Ally, From Caving to Russia
Washington can address Ankara's deep security concerns via Kurdish withdrawal from the Manbij pocket and ironclad guarantees against Russian aggression.
May 25, 2018
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
How Nativism in Turkey Is Stifling Democracy
According to President Erdogan's worldview, the 40 million Turkish citizens who oppose him stand for alien and imported interests, signaling much discord ahead.
May 11, 2018
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay

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