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Syria

Policy Analysis on Syria

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Articles & Testimony
Iran Nuke Deal or Not, Some Syrians Still See Assad’s Fall
In their view, the regime remains vulnerable to widening political rifts, nationalist grumbling among military officers, and heightened U.S.-Israeli concerns about Iranian domination.
Jul 19, 2021
◆
  • David Pollock
Articles & Testimony
The Role of the Islamic State in the Assad Regime’s Strategy for Survival
Without years of tolerance and outright support from Damascus, the terrorist network could not have evolved into the powerful organization it became over the past decade.
Jul 14, 2021
◆
  • Matthew Levitt
Brief Analysis
The UN Votes on Syria: A Mixed Success Within a Diplomatic Deadlock
The Security Council’s decision to renew the cross-border mechanism averted a humanitarian disaster, but it leaves Russia with more leverage than ever to advance its political goals in Syria.
Jul 13, 2021
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  • Calvin Wilder
Rouhani, Putin, Erdogan
In-Depth Reports
Triangular Diplomacy:
Unpacking Russia's Syria Strategy
Moscow has repeatedly played actors off each other to secure its own interests and keep the Assad regime in power.
Jul 7, 2021
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  • Anna Borshchevskaya
  • Andrew J. Tabler
Articles & Testimony
When Humanitarian Aid Becomes a Bargaining Chip
Cross-border access into Syria has become a stress test for Putin and Biden’s nascent relationship, so what exactly will it take for their governments to reach a durable agreement?
Jul 1, 2021
◆
  • Jomana Qaddour
Figure 1: Rocket and drone attacks on coalition "points of presence".
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Iraq’s Drone and Rocket Epidemic, By the Numbers
Attacks on coalition points of presence are increasing in quantity and quality, making U.S. fatalities increasingly likely unless deterrence is restored.
Jun 27, 2021
◆
  • Michael Knights
  • Crispin Smith
◆ Militia Spotlight
Accidental Allies cover
In-Depth Reports
Accidental Allies:
The US–Syrian Democratic Forces Partnership Against the Islamic State
To some, America's partnership with the SDF exemplified an economy-of-force effort that minimized U.S. casualties and wrested control of northeast Syria from the Islamic State. To others, it was a cautionary tale about a U.S. military hoodwinked into working with a terrorist group.
Jun 22, 2021
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  • Michael Knights
  • Wladimir van Wilgenburg
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham militia members in Syria
Articles & Testimony
Affirmations of Support and Rituals of Jihadi Martyrdoms
As eulogies for a recently slain militia figure spread online, they highlighted the differences between major jihadi organizations and revealed the solid local roots HTS has formed in northwest Syria.
Jun 17, 2021
◆
  • Aaron Y. Zelin
Video
Brief Analysis
The Last Vote? Obstacles to Renewing UN Cross-Border Assistance in Syria
Amid talk of a potential new Security Council resolution, veteran diplomats and aid practitioners debate the future of humanitarian assistance to needy Syrians.
Jun 16, 2021
◆
  • James Jeffrey
  • Basma Alloush
  • Carsten Wieland
Iran's navy commander speaks in front of a map
Brief Analysis
Iran’s Atlantic Voyage: Implications of Naval Deployments to Venezuela or Syria
The maiden voyage may just be a token political and training mission to boost morale—or the first step in sending long-range missiles, drones, fast-attack boats, and other materiel to Tehran’s allies in the Caribbean or Mediterranean.
Jun 15, 2021
◆
  • Farzin Nadimi
Articles & Testimony
The Mediterranean Should Be on Joe Biden’s Mind When He Meets Putin
Despite its consistent rhetoric toward Moscow, the administration has not yet demonstrated its strategic understanding that ceding too much operating space to Russia will hurt U.S. efforts to confront China.
Jun 14, 2021
◆
  • Anna Borshchevskaya
Flag of the Syrian Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)
Brief Analysis
Hanging on in Idlib: Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s Expanding Tribal Engagement
As Western policymakers debate potential engagement with HTS, they should do so with eyes wide open to the jihadist group’s true status in the province and its intentions toward local tribal institutions.
Jun 11, 2021
◆
  • Aaron Y. Zelin
Brief Analysis
Russia Signals Biden with Attack on Syrian Jihadist Group
Washington is no ally of HTS, but it should realize that Russian strikes against the group are aimed squarely at foiling U.S. objectives in Geneva, including the effort to maintain cross-border aid.
Jun 11, 2021
◆
  • Aaron Y. Zelin
Brief Analysis
The Evolution of Iran’s Qods Force Since 1979
By absorbing rival organizations and favoring commanders who lack connections to other regime power centers, the IRGC has used the Qods Force to steadily centralize and monopolize control over the country’s foreign operations.
Jun 3, 2021
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  • Ali Alfoneh
Articles & Testimony
The Policy Consequences of Arab State Normalization with the Assad Regime
In addition to undermining the Biden administration’s promised focus on human rights, allowing Assad to regain legitimacy abroad would constitute a strategic blunder that cannot be explained away.
Jun 2, 2021
◆
  • Oula A. Alrifai
  • Aaron Y. Zelin
President Donald Trump speaks about Syria
Articles & Testimony
The Inside Story of How Trump ‘Kept the Oil’ in Syria and Lost
The ambitious plan would have seen Delta Crescent, a tiny Delaware company, try to bring peace and stability to the war-ravaged northeast, but local corruption, a lack of U.S. commitment, and other complications doomed the idea.
May 31, 2021
◆
  • Kenneth R. Rosen
A pro-Assad election poster in Syria
Video
Brief Analysis
Not (Just) Another Rigged Syrian Election: Implications for Settling the War
A panel of experts discuss the short- and long-term consequences of the 2021 presidential vote, including its potential effects on domestic opposition, regional normalization, future peace prospects, and Western policy.
May 26, 2021
◆
  • Vladimir Pran
  • Hannah Roberts
  • Wael Sawah
  • Zahra Albarazi
  • Emile Hokayem
  • Emma Beals
Syrian rebel fighters play a board game in a cafe
Brief Analysis
Stalemate in Northeast Syria: Options for Advancing U.S. Interests
In addition to clarifying its intentions and fortifying its presence in the area, the U.S. government needs to increase its focus on stability, security, and economic development.
May 21, 2021
◆
  • Kenneth R. Rosen
Gaza Soleimani
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
How Iraqi Militias Are Exploiting the Gaza Conflict
Hamas's example could embolden Iraqi factions to accelerate attacks on U.S. facilities at home, as well as seek some reflected glory by claiming Syria-based attacks against Israelis.
May 16, 2021
◆
  • Hamdi Malik
◆ Militia Spotlight
A pro-Assad election poster in Syria
Articles & Testimony
Russia Pushes a Dangerous Narrative Ahead of Syria’s Sham Election
Moscow would have the world believe that the best route to stability is legitimizing a dictator who plunged his country into war and destabilized the entire Middle East.
May 14, 2021
◆
  • Anna Borshchevskaya

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Featured experts

Michael Singh
Michael Singh
Michael Singh is the Managing Director and Lane-Swig Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute.
Grant Rumley
Grant Rumley
Grant Rumley is the Goldberger Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, where he specializes in military and security affairs in the Middle East.
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