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Syria

Policy Analysis on Syria

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Photo showing 1983 terrorist attack at U.S. Marine barracks in Beirut, Lebanon.
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Don’t Look Down: The Struggle Over Lebanon’s Airspace
To avoid past mistakes and counter the most potent threat on its borders, Israel requires an accurate intelligence picture in Lebanon, but Iran and Hezbollah risk destabilizing the situation by chipping away at the IDF’s air superiority.
Jul 7, 2022
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  • Assaf Orion
Abu Muhammad al-Jawlani, leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, speaks in a recorded interview released in Jan. 2019. Photo credit: Screenshot by Cole Bunzel via Twitter.
Articles & Testimony
Why Is It So Difficult to Get Off a Terrorist List?
Strategic priorities, political factors, and institutional inertia make it hard to remove a group from government lists even if it no longer meets the designation criteria, potentially hog-tying U.S. policymakers.
Jul 3, 2022
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  • Aaron Y. Zelin
Turkish president Erdogan at NATO headquarters in Brussels
Brief Analysis
What Biden Faces with Erdogan at the NATO Summit
The Turkish leader has been trying to leverage Sweden and Finland’s accession to weaken international support for the YPG in Syria, but he may be content with symbolic concessions that boost his reelection chances.
Jun 28, 2022
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
Leaders of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham
Video
Brief Analysis
Al-Qaeda, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, and the Future of Jihadism
A panel of leading counterterrorism scholars and practitioners discuss the evolving face of the global jihadist movement amid changes in Washington’s CT posture.
Jun 15, 2022
◆
  • Anastasia Smith
  • Aaron Y. Zelin
  • Matthew Levitt
Brief Analysis
Rhetoric Meets Reality in Jawlani’s Push for Self-Sufficiency
As a key UN vote approaches, Washington should push Turkey to help promote a diverse, balanced economy in HTS-controlled northwest Syria.
Jun 8, 2022
◆
  • Aaron Y. Zelin
Ahrar Sinjar drone image
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Ahrar Sinjar: Militia Employment of the Yazidi Community
Ahrar Sinjar is a worrisome example of Iran-backed militias using minorities to undertake cross-border rocket attacks and build terrorist cells in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq.
May 26, 2022
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  • Michael Knights
  • Hamdi Malik
  • Alex Almeida
  • Anwar al-Zamani
◆ Militia Spotlight
Articles & Testimony
The Impact of Russia’s Ukraine Invasion in the Middle East and North Africa
A former Pentagon advisor testifies on how the war might affect Moscow's ability to sell arms to MENA governments and project power in the region.
May 18, 2022
◆
  • Grant Rumley
Articles & Testimony
Is the West Losing the Battle of Narratives in the Middle East?
Instead of leaving misinformation and whataboutism largely unchallenged, Washington and its allies need to express their perspective to Arab audiences more effectively while highlighting Russian and Chinese hypocrisy.
May 9, 2022
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  • Anna Borshchevskaya
  • Catherine Cleveland
Hassan Daqou
Brief Analysis
Dethroning Lebanon’s “King of Captagon”
A major international drug smuggler with close ties to Hezbollah has continued threatening Lebanese residents and helping the Assad regime next door, giving Washington ample cause to intervene.
May 9, 2022
◆
  • Lauren Fredericks
Leaders of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
The Age of Political Jihadism:
A Study of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham
The Syria-based group now functions more like a government than a nonstate actor, portending a reorientation for the larger jihadist movement.
May 9, 2022
◆
  • Aaron Y. Zelin
A Turkish Bayraktor UAV on display at an airshow - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
Turkey's Lethal Weapon
From Ukraine to Syria, drones are reshaping Erdogan’s foreign policy.
Apr 27, 2022
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
  • Rich Outzen
Brief Analysis
French-Turkish Relations: Foes to Friends?
The Ukraine war has greatly boosted their diplomatic and military cooperation, but lingering friction over Syria, Libya, and Mediterranean issues will need to be handled carefully if this rapprochement is to endure.
Apr 20, 2022
◆
  • Louis Dugit-Gros
  • Pierre Morcos
  • Soner Cagaptay
Israeli Minister of Defense Benny Gantz - source: Israeli Ministry of Defense
Video
Brief Analysis
Defense Minister Benny Gantz Discusses Israel's Strategic Challenges
The country's top defense official shares his insights on recent terrorist attacks, the Iran nuclear talks, the Ukraine war, expanding cooperation with regional countries, and more.
Apr 11, 2022
◆
  • Benny Gantz
Rocket crater, Omar oilfield in Syria, April 6, 2022
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Spring Awakening: A New Wave of Militia Strikes or Just a Blip?
Militia groups appear to be increasingly exercising their different kinetic capabilities in Iraq and Syria, but why now?
Apr 8, 2022
◆
  • Michael Knights
  • Crispin Smith
◆ Militia Spotlight
Russian President Vladimir Putin meets Chinese President Xi Jinping at a summit in Beijing - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
West’s Weakness Led Putin into Ukraine—and Other Enemies Are Looking for Similar Signs
Moscow has provided a wake-up call about how actors like Iran interpret habitual demonstrations of U.S. inaction.
Apr 8, 2022
◆
  • Dennis Ross
Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed in 2018 - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
The Middle East—Read “Energy”—Complicates Ukraine Crisis
A new gas deal with Germany may help, but the Gulf states are taking a risk by intertwining urgent Western energy requests with seemingly tangential regional issues.
Mar 22, 2022
◆
  • Simon Henderson
NATO solderis with alliance and national flags
Articles & Testimony
How Putin and NATO Could Get Pulled Into a Disaster in Ukraine
Ukraine is no Syria, and Putin’s miscalculations are astonishing—but the West still faces grave risks of its own, including military escalation, mass refugee flows, and food shortages for Middle Eastern partners.
Mar 15, 2022
◆
  • Anna Borshchevskaya
Map illustrating strategies for preserving autonomy in northeast Syria.
Brief Analysis
How to Preserve the Autonomy of Northeast Syria
To offset the destabilizing measures coming from Turkey and the Assad axis, Western governments need to offer more development assistance—but in a targeted way that reassures local authorities and minimizes mismanagement.
Mar 15, 2022
◆
  • Fabrice Balanche
Illustration of chess pieces and the Russian and Ukrainian flags - source: Reuters
Video
Brief Analysis
How Will the Ukraine Crisis Affect Middle East Policy?
Three experts discuss whether the war might alter Washington’s calculus on rapprochement with Turkey, regional military deployments, and wider great power competition.
Mar 10, 2022
◆
  • Anna Borshchevskaya
  • Soner Cagaptay
  • Grant Rumley
Arab Spring Tunisia Yemen Bahrain Egypt Libya Syria
Audio
In-Depth Reports
No Going Back
Activists Reflect a Decade After the Arab Spring
Interviews with thirteen activists reveal a deep sense of disappointment but also a shared conviction that a new reform movement will eventually rise and deliver lasting change to the region.
Mar 7, 2022
◆
  • Roy Gutman
◆ Reform, Protest, Change

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Linda and Tony Rubin Program on Arab Politics

The Washington Institute's Linda and Tony Rubin Program on Arab Politics focuses on social, political, and economic developments in the Arab world, with an emphasis on the Arab countries of the Levant.

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Featured experts

Andrew J. Tabler
Andrew J. Tabler
Andrew J. Tabler is the Martin J. Gross Senior Fellow in the Linda and Tony Rubin Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute, where he focuses on Syria and U.S. policy in the Levant, and Director of the Institute's Junior Research Program.
Grant Rumley
Grant Rumley
Grant Rumley is the Goldberger Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, where he specializes in military and security affairs in the Middle East.
David Schenker
David Schenker
David Schenker is the Taube Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute and director of the Linda and Tony Rubin Program on Arab Politics. He is the former Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs.
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