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Syria

Policy Analysis on Syria

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Brief Analysis
Israel and the Fall of Assad: Rejoice, Repel, Reach Out, Reload
Prompt military action is helping Israel counter the immediate security risks of Syria’s sudden upheaval, but additional efforts will be needed to seize the broader opportunities of this new era.
Dec 18, 2024
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  • Assaf Orion
Articles & Testimony
Did Assad’s Fall in Syria Really Weaken Russia?
Moscow is already taking steps to ensure that it can continue confounding U.S. interests in Ukraine and Syria even if the outcomes on these fronts wind up differently than expected.
Dec 17, 2024
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  • Anna Borshchevskaya
Workers package Syrian pound currency notes at the Syrian Central Bank in Damascus following the fall of the Assad regime in December 2024 - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
How Hayat Tahrir al-Sham Landed on U.S. Terrorist Lists—and Why It Should Stay There for Now
Although some near-term waivers should be issued to help untangle the complicated web of designations and facilitate humanitarian aid, any broader delisting of HTS, Jolani, and others needs to be earned, not gifted.
Dec 17, 2024
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  • Matthew Levitt
Map showing areas of control in post-Assad Syria.
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Supporting the SDF in Post-Assad Syria
To preserve its only reliable and capable partner in the fight against the Islamic State, the United States must help the SDF deter HTS and fend off Turkey-backed militias.
Dec 13, 2024
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  • Ido Levy
A rebel fighter belonging to the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham gestures while riding a vehicle near Aleppo in November 2024 - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
The U.S. Should Not Yet Trust Syria’s New Regime
Even as they celebrate the demise of Assad’s dictatorship, U.S. officials should take a “verify, don’t trust” approach to HTS, judging the group by its actions on the ground before considering the removal of sanctions.
Dec 13, 2024
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  • Matthew Levitt
Articles & Testimony
The US Must Push Putin Out the Syrian Door
To prevent Russia from cutting permanent deals with the rebels or otherwise salvaging its defeat, Washington must take the reins of the coming transition process.
Dec 12, 2024
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  • Anna Borshchevskaya
Brief Analysis
Don’t Assume Iran’s Supply Lines to Hezbollah Are Cut
Tehran’s past efforts to reconstitute the group have passed through more difficult environments than post-Assad Syria, but an economical U.S.-led effort can complicate future smuggling efforts and further other counterterrorism goals in the process.
Dec 12, 2024
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  • Michael Knights
Articles & Testimony
The Emergence of Two Distinct Jihadist Ways of War
Comparing the offensive that toppled Assad with the Islamic State's 2014 campaign in Iraq shows how HTS has innovated its approach by mixing old and new tactics.
Dec 12, 2024
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  • Ido Levy
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham chief Abu Mohammed al-Jolani speaks to reporters in Damascus in December 2024 - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
What to Know About the Man Who Toppled Assad
Abu Mohammad al-Jolani has worked for years to rebrand himself, but has he truly broken from his extremist past?
Dec 11, 2024
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  • Aaron Y. Zelin
Articles & Testimony
For Israel, a Strategic Win and New Headaches
Despite the welcome blow to Iran's axis, Israel’s must now protect its border communities in the Golan and ensure that the Assad regime's strategic weapons don't end up in the wrong hands.
Dec 11, 2024
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  • Assaf Orion
President Donald Trump speaks about Syria
Articles & Testimony
Trump Can’t Sit This One Out
Despite his latest tweets about staying out of the Syria crisis, Trump has a history of working with Turkey on these issues and has several carrots to offer HTS as well.
Dec 11, 2024
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  • Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Syria Is the First Major Aftershock of October 7—With More to Come?
From stability in Jordan to the future of Kurdish autonomy, Lebanese sovereignty, and Iranian nuclear proliferation, officials must prepare quickly to prevent or manage—and in some cases even encourage—further shocks in the Middle East.
Dec 11, 2024
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  • Zohar Palti
Articles & Testimony
Why Al-Assad Fell
The dictator’s rigidity at the negotiating table and within Syrian society left him with scant support when he needed it most, giving Washington a window for pushing a Syrian-led transition and cutting Iran’s axis for good.
Dec 10, 2024
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  • Andrew J. Tabler
Brief Analysis
Syria Crisis Leaves Islamic State Prisons and Detention Camps Vulnerable
Even as global attention is turned toward major transition questions in Damascus, the international community cannot lose focus on the fight against the Islamic State—an essential part of which is ensuring the security of northeastern detention facilities.
Dec 9, 2024
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  • Devorah Margolin
Articles & Testimony
With Assad Gone—What’s Next?
In addition to carefully managing moves on the Golan, Israel should focus on facilitating humanitarian assistance to the Druze, mending relations with Turkey, and convincing Trump to maintain America’s military presence in Syria.
Dec 9, 2024
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  • Ehud Yaari
Photo showing Syrian rebels outside Aleppo International Airport.
Video
Brief Analysis
The (Next) Battle for Northwest Syria: U.S. Policy Implications
The director of the Syrian Emergency Task Force joins three Washington Institute experts to discuss the stunning rebel advances in the west.
Dec 6, 2024
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  • Andrew J. Tabler
  • Anna Borshchevskaya
  • Aaron Y. Zelin
  • Mouaz Moustafa
Articles & Testimony
Remaining, Waiting for Expansion (Again): The Islamic State’s Operations in Iraq and Syria
Despite the group's expansion in other parts of the world, its original base in Iraq and Syria remains relevant due to the area's uncertain status quo and the looming prospect of U.S. military withdrawals.
Dec 5, 2024
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  • Aaron Y. Zelin
People queue for bread in rebel-occupied Aleppo in December 2024 - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
How Syria’s ‘Diversity-Friendly’ Jihadists Plan on Building a State
As the group consolidates control in newly seized Aleppo, its leader is seeking to allay fears among minorities, pro-Assad residents, and skeptical Western officials alike.
Dec 3, 2024
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  • Aaron Y. Zelin
A rebel fighter belonging to the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham gestures while riding a vehicle near Aleppo in November 2024 - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
The Patient Efforts Behind Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s Success in Aleppo
The former jihadist affiliate has changed tremendously in the past few years, and understanding this new reality is crucial to identifying how its current offensive might unfold.
Dec 3, 2024
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  • Aaron Y. Zelin
Articles & Testimony
Spoils of Someone Else’s War:
Acting as a Mediator in Syria Would Improve Putin’s International Standing
Despite Russia’s uncertain response to the Assad regime’s latest embarrassing military setback, Moscow still sees Syria as a critical hotspot on the global stage and will seek to steer events there in its favor.
Dec 3, 2024
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  • Anna Borshchevskaya

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Linda and Tony Rubin Program on Arab Politics

The Washington Institute's Linda and Tony Rubin Program on Arab Politics focuses on social, political, and economic developments in the Arab world, with an emphasis on the Arab countries of the Levant.

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Featured experts

Andrew J. Tabler
Andrew J. Tabler
Andrew J. Tabler is the Martin J. Gross Senior Fellow in the Linda and Tony Rubin Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute, where he focuses on Syria and U.S. policy in the Levant.
Grant Rumley
Grant Rumley
Grant Rumley is the Meisel-Goldberger Senior Fellow and Director of the Diane and Guilford Glazer Foundation Program on Great Power Competition and the Middle East at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
David Schenker
David Schenker
David Schenker is the Taube Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute and director of the Linda and Tony Rubin Program on Arab Politics. He is the former Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs.
Elizabeth Dent - source: The Washington Institute
Elizabeth Dent
Elizabeth Dent is a Senior Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, where she focuses on U.S. foreign and defense policy toward the Gulf states, Iraq, and Syria.
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