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Syria

Policy Analysis on Syria

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Screen capture of the FBI Most Wanted Terrorist poster for Ayman al-Zawahiri, updated following Zawahiri's killing in Afghanistan by American forces. Source: FBI
Brief Analysis
What Zawahiri’s Death Means for al-Qaeda and Its Branches
Despite the potent symbolic benefits of taking out the infamous terrorist ideologue, his death is unlikely to affect the organization’s daily operations, which are increasingly being driven by dangerous affiliates in Africa.
Aug 2, 2022
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  • Matthew Levitt
  • Aaron Y. Zelin
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Arab Tribes and Saudi Influence in Northeastern Syria
Saudi Arabia has worked with Syrian tribes in the past to bolster their involvement in Northeastern Syria, but tribal frustrations with the SDF and shifting geopolitical realities are impacting this relationship.
Aug 2, 2022
◆
  • Ishtar Al Shami
Russian President Putin and Iranian President Raisi meet in Tehran in 2022 - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
Russia and Iran Keep Growing Closer
Given their proven capacity for jointly disrupting Western imperatives in the Middle East, both countries should increasingly be treated as part of the same strategic set.
Jul 26, 2022
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  • Anna Borshchevskaya
U.S._and_Turkish_military_forces_conduct_second_joint_ground_patrol_inside_of_the_secur
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
The Impending Turkish Invasion: Repercussions for the SDF-Washington Relationship
A Turkish attack on northern Syria would bring new waves of internal displacement and increased humanitarian suffering, weaken the SDF and the Autonomous Administration, and erode these institutions’ the trust of the United States.
Jul 25, 2022
◆
  • Baraa Sabri
Turkish President Erdogan at a summit with Russian President Putin in Sochi in 2021 - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Will the Putin-Erdogan-Raisi Summit Spark a Turkish Incursion into Syria?
Moscow and Tehran may well assent to another cross-border operation, but Turkey’s choice of targets will depend on multiple U.S., Russian, and Iranian interests.
Jul 18, 2022
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  • Soner Cagaptay
  • Andrew J. Tabler
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
How the Autonomous Administration Leadership and Civilians Will View a Turkish Incursion into Northeast Syria
With the threat of a Turkish incursion into Northeast Syria, the SDF weighs their options while the area’s civilians express their frustrations and concerns about all parties involved.
Jul 18, 2022
◆
  • Ishtar Al Shami
Brief Analysis
Time to Develop a Plan B for Syria Aid
Although alternatives to the UN mechanism carry uncertainties of their own, continuing the broken status quo will only boost Moscow, endanger Syrian civilians, and help the Assad regime avoid sanctions—not to mention whetting his appetite for natural gas shipments.
Jul 14, 2022
◆
  • Anna Borshchevskaya
  • Louis Dugit-Gros
  • Andrew J. Tabler
Photo showing 1983 terrorist attack at U.S. Marine barracks in Beirut, Lebanon.
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Don’t Look Down: The Struggle Over Lebanon’s Airspace
To avoid past mistakes and counter the most potent threat on its borders, Israel requires an accurate intelligence picture in Lebanon, but Iran and Hezbollah risk destabilizing the situation by chipping away at the IDF’s air superiority.
Jul 7, 2022
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  • Assaf Orion
Abu Muhammad al-Jawlani, leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, speaks in a recorded interview released in Jan. 2019. Photo credit: Screenshot by Cole Bunzel via Twitter.
Articles & Testimony
Why Is It So Difficult to Get Off a Terrorist List?
Strategic priorities, political factors, and institutional inertia make it hard to remove a group from government lists even if it no longer meets the designation criteria, potentially hog-tying U.S. policymakers.
Jul 3, 2022
◆
  • Aaron Y. Zelin
Turkish president Erdogan at NATO headquarters in Brussels
Brief Analysis
What Biden Faces with Erdogan at the NATO Summit
The Turkish leader has been trying to leverage Sweden and Finland’s accession to weaken international support for the YPG in Syria, but he may be content with symbolic concessions that boost his reelection chances.
Jun 28, 2022
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
Leaders of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham
Video
Brief Analysis
Al-Qaeda, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, and the Future of Jihadism
A panel of leading counterterrorism scholars and practitioners discuss the evolving face of the global jihadist movement amid changes in Washington’s CT posture.
Jun 15, 2022
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  • Anastasia Smith
  • Aaron Y. Zelin
  • Matthew Levitt
Brief Analysis
Rhetoric Meets Reality in Jawlani’s Push for Self-Sufficiency
As a key UN vote approaches, Washington should push Turkey to help promote a diverse, balanced economy in HTS-controlled northwest Syria.
Jun 8, 2022
◆
  • Aaron Y. Zelin
Ahrar Sinjar drone image
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Ahrar Sinjar: Militia Employment of the Yazidi Community
Ahrar Sinjar is a worrisome example of Iran-backed militias using minorities to undertake cross-border rocket attacks and build terrorist cells in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq.
May 26, 2022
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  • Michael Knights
  • Hamdi Malik
  • Alex Almeida
  • Anwar al-Zamani
◆ Militia Spotlight
Articles & Testimony
The Impact of Russia’s Ukraine Invasion in the Middle East and North Africa
A former Pentagon advisor testifies on how the war might affect Moscow's ability to sell arms to MENA governments and project power in the region.
May 18, 2022
◆
  • Grant Rumley
Saudi men read a newspaper - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
Is the West Losing the Battle of Narratives in the Middle East?
Instead of leaving misinformation and whataboutism largely unchallenged, Washington and its allies need to express their perspective to Arab audiences more effectively while highlighting Russian and Chinese hypocrisy.
May 9, 2022
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  • Anna Borshchevskaya
  • Catherine Cleveland
Hassan Daqou
Brief Analysis
Dethroning Lebanon’s “King of Captagon”
A major international drug smuggler with close ties to Hezbollah has continued threatening Lebanese residents and helping the Assad regime next door, giving Washington ample cause to intervene.
May 9, 2022
◆
  • Lauren Fredericks
Leaders of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
The Age of Political Jihadism:
A Study of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham
The Syria-based group now functions more like a government than a nonstate actor, portending a reorientation for the larger jihadist movement.
May 9, 2022
◆
  • Aaron Y. Zelin
A Turkish Bayraktor UAV on display at an airshow - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
Turkey's Lethal Weapon
From Ukraine to Syria, drones are reshaping Erdogan’s foreign policy.
Apr 27, 2022
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  • Soner Cagaptay
  • Rich Outzen
Brief Analysis
French-Turkish Relations: Foes to Friends?
The Ukraine war has greatly boosted their diplomatic and military cooperation, but lingering friction over Syria, Libya, and Mediterranean issues will need to be handled carefully if this rapprochement is to endure.
Apr 20, 2022
◆
  • Louis Dugit-Gros
  • Pierre Morcos
  • Soner Cagaptay
Israeli Minister of Defense Benny Gantz - source: Israeli Ministry of Defense
Video
Brief Analysis
Defense Minister Benny Gantz Discusses Israel's Strategic Challenges
The country's top defense official shares his insights on recent terrorist attacks, the Iran nuclear talks, the Ukraine war, expanding cooperation with regional countries, and more.
Apr 11, 2022
◆
  • Benny Gantz

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Featured experts

Michael Singh
Michael Singh
Michael Singh is the Managing Director and Lane-Swig Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute.
Grant Rumley
Grant Rumley
Grant Rumley is the Goldberger Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, where he specializes in military and security affairs in the Middle East.
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