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  • Policy Analysis

Proliferation

Policy Analysis on Proliferation

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Brief Analysis
Iran’s Ballistic Missile Arsenal Is Still Growing in Size, Reach, and Accuracy
Tehran has doubled down on the strategic importance of missile systems that can threaten U.S. forces and allies, even as its defensive justifications for such an arsenal ring more hollow than ever.
Dec 13, 2021
◆
  • Farzin Nadimi
Articles & Testimony
Iran’s Nukes: This Time the Wolf Is Here
Given the regime’s considerable technical progress, even a good deal would only buy time rather than resolving the long-term nuclear threat.
Dec 10, 2021
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  • David Pollock
Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei delivers public remarks.
Articles & Testimony
Tehran Won’t Tolerate a Reset with Washington—But Will Take a Deal
As the previous nuclear agreement showed, U.S. officials don’t need to change the regime’s mind about America’s supposedly nefarious intentions in order to cut a deal.
Dec 6, 2021
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  • Amir Toumaj
U.S. and Iranian flags
Articles & Testimony
Why Israel (Sort of) Misses the Iran Deal
Given the nuclear program’s advancement under the U.S. maximum pressure policy, a raft of Israeli officials now say the JCPOA was better than nothing—but rejoining it will be difficult.
Dec 6, 2021
◆
  • Neri Zilber
U.S. and Iranian flags
Video
Brief Analysis
How Tehran Views Washington
Researchers discuss Iran’s mindset toward the Biden administration and the country’s prospects for internal change as nuclear talks resume in Vienna.
Dec 1, 2021
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  • Amir Toumaj
  • Sanam Vakil
Iranian and international negotiators participate in nuclear talks in Vienna, 2021.
Brief Analysis
Reading Through Iran’s Nuclear Demands
Tehran has maintained its stringent line of insisting that Washington lift all sanctions, verify their removal, and provide future guarantees before it will lift a finger on resuming compliance with the JCPOA.
Nov 24, 2021
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  • Omer Carmi
Articles & Testimony
Biden Needs a Plan B for Yemen If Houthis Win
Ending the war under the current circumstances will generate new problems unless further steps are taken to interdict weapons smuggling and bolster security in Saudi Arabia and the Red Sea.
Nov 4, 2021
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  • David Schenker
USAF ground crew directs a B-1 Lancer bomber
Articles & Testimony
The Threat of War Is the Only Way to Achieve Peace with Iran
Tehran no longer takes Washington seriously, so the Biden administration needs to put the prospect of military escalation back on the table if it hopes to make progress on the nuclear issue.
Oct 27, 2021
◆
  • Dennis Ross
U.S. and Iranian flags
Articles & Testimony
A Plan B for Iran
Tehran has seemingly concluded that sanctions relief is no longer worth compromising for, so Washington needs to change that calculus by credibly sharpening the consequences.
Oct 25, 2021
◆
  • Michael Singh
Anti air
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Iraqi Militias Show Off Iranian Anti-Air Missile
Iran-backed resistance groups are seemingly staging missile "discoveries" as a way of warning off coalition air forces.
Oct 21, 2021
◆
  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight
Articles & Testimony
While Washington Argues, Iran Makes Nuclear Advances
A closer look at the technical progress being made under the country’s new nuclear chief—and his potential links with the Pakistani scientist who first gave Tehran weaponization know-how.
Oct 15, 2021
◆
  • Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
What AQ Khan’s Diaries Tell About Pakistan’s Drive for a Nuclear Bomb
The custodian of the infamous scientist’s four-decade-long journal offers new insights into his proliferation role and relationship with Pakistani military authorities.
Oct 12, 2021
◆
  • Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
How Iran’s Deadly Tanker Attack Is Linked to the Nuclear Deal
If the United States does not respond to the drone strike off Oman, it could impair rather than facilitate progress on the JCPOA talks.
Aug 11, 2021
◆
  • Robert Satloff
Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamanei, gestures while speaking
Brief Analysis
What If It’s Not a Tactic? Khamenei’s Waning Faith in the JCPOA
The Supreme Leader’s rhetoric in recent months indicates that Iran's experience under the nuclear deal has made him gun-shy about returning to that framework.
Aug 3, 2021
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  • Omer Carmi
U.S. and Iranian flags
Articles & Testimony
Iran’s Gift to President Biden
Although Tehran’s specific JCPOA demand may not be feasible, it opens the door to negotiating a new nuclear deal.
Aug 1, 2021
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  • Michael Singh
Articles & Testimony
To Deter Iran, Give Israel a Big Bomb
In addition to renegotiating key parts of the JCPOA, expanding Israel’s arsenal is the best way to keep Tehran off the nuclear weapons threshold.
Jul 23, 2021
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  • Dennis Ross
Articles & Testimony
Biden Wants to Leave the Middle East, But He’s in a Vicious Bombing Cycle in Iraq
Caught between aggressive Tehran-backed militias and a skeptical Congress, the administration needs a better approach.
Jul 2, 2021
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  • Michael Knights
Articles & Testimony
The Iran Nuclear Deal Isn’t the Problem. Iran Is.
Tehran’s provision of training and weapons to regional militants never stopped even under heavy U.S. sanctions, so the Biden administration needs to do much more than just reinstate the JCPOA.
Jun 29, 2021
◆
  • James Jeffrey
  • Dennis Ross
Figure 1: Rocket and drone attacks on coalition "points of presence".
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Iraq’s Drone and Rocket Epidemic, By the Numbers
Attacks on coalition points of presence are increasing in quantity and quality, making U.S. fatalities increasingly likely unless deterrence is restored.
Jun 27, 2021
◆
  • Michael Knights
  • Crispin Smith
◆ Militia Spotlight
Articles & Testimony
Have We Already Failed to Ensure That Iran ‘Never Gets a Nuclear Weapon’?
Such weapons have spread surprisingly slowly since the end of World War II, but this template may be changing amid unsustainable ambiguity over the future of Tehran’s program.
Jun 25, 2021
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  • Simon Henderson

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Featured experts

Patrick Clawson
Patrick Clawson
Patrick Clawson is the Morningstar Senior Fellow and Research Counselor at The Washington Institute.
Michael Singh
Michael Singh
Michael Singh is the Managing Director and Lane-Swig Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute.
Simon Henderson
Simon Henderson
Simon Henderson is the Baker Senior Fellow and director of the Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy at The Washington Institute, specializing in energy matters and the conservative Arab states of the Persian Gulf.
Henry Rome
Henry Rome
Henry Rome was a Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, specializing in Iran sanctions, economic, and nuclear issues.
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