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Iran's Nuclear Proliferation Strategy: U.S. Policy Options

Join us for an expert webcast exploring options for the United States to influence Iranian strategic calculus away from a decision to resume active pursuit of nuclear weapons. Watch live starting at 12:00 p.m. EST (1700 GMT) on Tuesday, December 13, 2022.

December 13, 2022, starting at 12:00 p.m. EST (1700 GMT)

Suzanne Maloney
Mahsa Rouhi
Michael Eisenstadt

Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi meets Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman in Riyadh

What Saudi Arabia Wants from President Xi’s Visit

China is already one of the kingdom’s major commercial partners and a significant supplier of military and nuclear technology, but Riyadh wants more of each.

Simon Henderson
Carol Silber

Eisenstadt monograph cover; U.S. "Plumbbob Hood" nuclear weapons test, 1957

Maps & Graphics

In-Depth Reports

Iran's Nuclear Hedging Strategy:

Shaping the Islamic Republic's Proliferation Calculus

Tehran’s willingness to pause aspects of its nuclear program may offer opportunities to stoke regime concerns about the potential costs of moving forward.

Michael Eisenstadt

Lieutenant General Asim Munir, newly appointed as the new Chief Of Army Staff of Pakistan, meets with President Arif Alvi in Islamabad - source: Reuters

Pakistan’s New Military Leader and the Gulf

For U.S. and Gulf officials alike, the appointment of a potential military dictator in the world’s only nuclear-armed Islamic state bears close watching.

Simon Henderson

Venezuelan and Iranian flags flying during a state visit in Tehran - source: Reuters

Iran May Be Outsourcing Kamikaze Drone Production to Venezuela

Tehran, Caracas, and Moscow have been running a secretive air bridge just as Iran appears to be surging its transfer of attack drones to Russia, raising questions about whether these activities are linked.

Farzin Nadimi

New EU Sanctions Indicate More Willingness to Hold Tehran Accountable

Although their ultimate effects are uncertain, the new sanctions are a powerful signal that European governments are readier than ever to confront the regime’s human rights violations, drone deliveries to Russia, and nuclear stalling.

Henry Rome
Louis Dugit-Gros

Iran Faces Renewed Censure at Vienna Nuclear Meeting

A resolution condemning Tehran’s unwillingness to provide access to potential weaponization sites is an effective way to apply pressure, but also risks retaliation.

Simon Henderson

An Iranian-made Shahed-136 drone in use by Russian forces in an attack on Kyiv, Ukraine - source: Reuters

Articles & Testimony

What Iran’s Drones in Ukraine Mean for the Future of War

Russia’s effective use of inexpensive Iranian aircraft points to challenges that other states may soon face elsewhere.

Michael Knights
Alex Almeida

Snapback Sanctions on Iran: More Bark Than Bite?

Threatening to reimpose old UN sanctions would likely have little practical effect on Tehran’s ability to trade oil and export drones, while the plethora of other potential complications suggest that it should be treated as a tool of last resort.

Henry Rome
Louis Dugit-Gros

Houthi leader Abdul-Malik Badruddin al-Houthi addresses a rally in Sanaa, Yemen - source: Reuters

Articles & Testimony

The Houthi Jihad Council: Command and Control in ‘the Other Hezbollah’

The Houthi relationship with the IRGC and Lebanese Hezbollah has grown to the point that regardless of whether fighting in Yemen wanes, the Gulf movement may still play an integrated role in Iran’s future military adventures.

Michael Knights
Adnan al-Gabarni
Casey Coombs

Baquer Namazi, a dual U.S.-Iranian citizen who had been imprisoned in Iran, shakes hands with an Omani official in Muscat - source: Reuters

The Latest Chapter in Iran’s Hostage Diplomacy

U.S. policymakers should be careful about concluding that Tehran’s decision to relax restrictions on two detained American citizens has anything to do with the nuclear talks.

Henry Rome

Articles & Testimony

Letting Iran Go Nuclear

Tehran's program continues to gallop ahead, and the United States is doing very little about it.

Robert Satloff

Articles & Testimony

A New Iran Deal Won’t Prevent an Iranian Bomb

Tehran’s program is far more advanced than in 2015, so only a credible threat of force will stop the regime from crossing the nuclear weapons threshold.

Dennis Ross

Articles & Testimony

In Rejecting Iran Nuclear Deal, Israeli Rivals Are of One Mind

Lapid and Netanyahu both oppose resuming the JCPOA—but they would be unlikely to say otherwise publicly even if they supported the latest proposals.

Neri Zilber

Iranian presidential candidate Ebrahim Raisi speaking in 2021

Iran Garnering Internal Support for a Potential Nuclear Deal

Although it is still unclear if the Supreme Leader will approve the necessary compromises, regime officials are maximizing their room for maneuver by preparing the country either way—assuming the economy doesn’t force their hand.

Omer Carmi

The Rushdie Attack and Iran’s Deceptive “Fatwas”

Whether or not Tehran is proven to be involved, the incident holds significant implications for the regime's international diplomacy and terrorist activity—not to mention its claims about the applicability of Khamenei’s “nuclear fatwa.”

Mehdi Khalaji

Photo of a Shahed drone in an Iranian military parade near imagery of Supreme Leader Khamenei..

Iranian Drones to Russia: Capabilities and Limitations

Besides signaling that Iran has shifted to active military support for Russia’s war in Ukraine, the prospective transfer gives Moscow a stopgap option until its own advanced drones are ready for service.

Farzin Nadimi

An Iranian soldier wearing an IRGC uniform salutes in front of an Iranin flag - source: Reuters

Articles & Testimony

The United States Needs a Better Strategy to Deter Iran

A “more for more” agreement might be possible, but only if Iranian leaders are genuinely afraid of what they could lose without one.

Dennis Ross

Articles & Testimony

Israel Hoping for Shift in US Iran Policy from Diplomacy to Deterrence

A veteran Israeli security and intelligence official explains why the Biden administration must reinvigorate oil sanctions and demonstrate a commitment to act militarily.

Zohar Palti

Nuclear centrifuges in Iran

Iran Nuclear Explainer

A brief summary of technical terms relating to the country’s nuclear progress.

Simon Henderson

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