Military & Security

Policy Analysis on Military & Security

Iran Gets Aggressive in the Northern Gulf Following U.S. Military Exercises

Recent joint drills by the U.S. Navy, Army, and Air Force have essentially challenged Tehran to a game of contested deterrence, spurring its forces to respond with swarm maneuvers and a vessel seizure.

Apr 21, 2020

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Farzin Nadimi

Brief Analysis

Coronavirus Has Opposite Effects on Turkish Policy in Syria and Libya

Ceasefire agreements and contagion concerns will likely limit Turkish operations in Syria for the time being, but Ankara has no such constraints in its Libya proxy war.

Apr 17, 2020

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Soner Cagaptay

Brief Analysis

The Pandemic’s Implications for Iran’s Nuclear Program

Although the leadership in Tehran seems preoccupied with the coronavirus, the international community must still watch out for any attempts to exploit the situation via clandestine nuclear activities.

Apr 14, 2020

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Omer Carmi

Brief Analysis

The Faint Red Line: How the West Should Respond to the Syria Chemical Weapons Report

Europe and the United States can no longer dismiss the strategic and tactical relevance of the regime’s CW attacks, which have continued throughout the conflict and demand further military, diplomatic, and judicial action.

Apr 13, 2020

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Tobias Schneider
Theresa Lutkefend

Brief Analysis

Qaani’s Surprise Visit to Baghdad and the Future of the PMF

The commander’s trip was aimed at uniting Shia militias against the United States and domestic political rivals, but facts on the ground show that the post-Soleimani Qods Force is losing its touch in Iraq.

Apr 10, 2020

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Farzin Nadimi
Hamdi Malik

Brief Analysis

Iraq Goes from Zurfi to Kadhimi: U.S. Policy Implications

If Kadhimi’s nomination goes through, it would be good news for Iraq, but Washington’s troubled relationship with Baghdad still needs a radical strategic reset.

Apr 9, 2020

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Michael Knights

Brief Analysis

Houthis Release Their Wish List for Ending the Yemen War

Reflecting just how emboldened the Houthis have become, their latest ceasefire document advocates maximalist positions on core issues while demanding that other actors foot the bill for reconstruction, reparations, economic recovery, and virus containment.

Apr 9, 2020

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Elana DeLozier

Articles & Testimony

As Civil War Rages, Diplomacy Fails with Libya’s Haftar

For years, international mediators have insisted that there is no military solution to the war, but it is also time to recognize that there is no diplomatic solution with Khalifa Haftar.

Apr 9, 2020

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Ben Fishman

Brief Analysis

By Mobilizing to Fight Coronavirus, the IRGC Is Marginalizing the Government

From establishing new provincial headquarters to deploying hundreds of thousands of troops and militia personnel on emergency duty, the Guards are seemingly using the crisis as an opportunity to expand their power at the local level.

Apr 8, 2020

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Saeid Golkar

Articles & Testimony

How the Islamic State Feeds on Coronavirus

The pandemic has shut down counterterrorism operations, and the group is relishing the extra breathing room in Iraq.

Apr 8, 2020

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Michael Knights

Brief Analysis

Hezbollah’s Corona Quagmire: An Opportunity to Empower the LAF

Now that Hezbollah realizes its efforts to hide virus cases won’t work anymore, Washington should urge Beirut to put LAF medical and border-control personnel to work without resorting to a full state of emergency.

Mar 31, 2020

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Hanin Ghaddar

Articles & Testimony

Love Thy Neighbor: Saudi Arabia Needs Regional Help to End the War

After five years of fighting in Yemen, Riyadh has been left to deal with the conflict largely on its own, but the Gulf states will need to band together again if they hope to facilitate another transition of the sort seen in 2011.

Mar 31, 2020

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Elana DeLozier

Articles & Testimony

U.S. Policy in the Middle East Amid Great Power Competition

Viewing regional issues through this broader strategic lens will require Washington to accept painful trade-offs and take a tougher stance with difficult allies.

Mar 30, 2020

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Michael Singh

Brief Analysis

With COVID-19, Iran’s Dependence on China Grows

Beijing has steadily become Tehran’s economic ventilator, diplomatic prop, and military enabler, and the Iranians need this backstop now more than ever.

Mar 27, 2020

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Kevjn Lim

Brief Analysis

Khamenei Securitizes the Pandemic as the IRGC Mulls Regional Action

With the regime leadership accusing the United States of using bioweapons and fomenting other hateful disinformation, the potential for violence against U.S. forces and interests will likely escalate.

Mar 27, 2020

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Farzin Nadimi

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Idlib May Become the Next Gaza Strip

Given the military situation on the ground and the overriding interests of each party, the jihadist-run rebel pocket will likely be further reduced into a small, overpopulated border strip north of the M4 highway.

Mar 26, 2020

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Fabrice Balanche

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

A Year Since Baghuz, the Islamic State Is Neither Defeated nor Resurging (Yet)

Although attack statistics have declined, the continued lack of stable governance in Diyala and Deir al-Zour shows that Washington and its partners have not absorbed the lessons provided by previous insurgencies.

Mar 25, 2020

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Aaron Y. Zelin

Maps & Graphics

In-Depth Reports

Honored, Not Contained:

The Future of Iraq's Popular Mobilization Forces

In this detailed Policy Focus, meant as a primer for Iraqi and international agencies, leading scholars examine the current status of Iraq's Popular Mobilization Forces.

Mar 23, 2020

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Michael Knights
Hamdi Malik
Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi

Articles & Testimony

Coronavirus in the Holy Land: Israel Has Been Ready for a Crisis Such as This

Fortress Israel raised its drawbridges early, though its resultant economic and political outlook is just as uncertain as the rest of the world’s.

Mar 20, 2020

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Neri Zilber

Brief Analysis

Giving Iraq’s Next Prime Minister Space to Succeed

As the next well-qualified, Iraqi-chosen candidate navigates the delicate ratification process, Washington can avoid disrupting his efforts by temporarily ignoring militia provocations and providing quiet, symbolic support where needed.

Mar 17, 2020

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Michael Knights

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Military and Security Studies Program

The Washington Institute's Military and Security Studies Program has established itself as an unrivaled source of reliable, incisive, and forward-looking analysis concerning several of the most critical national-security challenges facing the United States today: The U.S. military role in the Middle East, Iran's nuclear program and its proxy armies, the ongoing conflict is in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen, the regional proliferation of missiles and weapons of mass destruction, the security dimensions of the Arab-Israeli conflict, and many other security issues on the frontline of the U.S. policymaking agenda.

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Featured experts

Michael Eisenstadt

Michael Eisenstadt is the Kahn Senior Fellow and director of The Washington Institute's Military and Security Studies Program.

Michael Knights

Michael Knights is the Jill and Jay Bernstein Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute and cofounder of the Militia Spotlight platform, which offers in-depth analysis of developments related to Iran-backed militias.

Grant Rumley

Grant Rumley is the Meisel-Goldberger Senior Fellow and Director of the Diane and Guilford Glazer Foundation Program on Great Power Competition and the Middle East at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

Elizabeth Dent

Elizabeth Dent is a Senior Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, where she focuses on U.S. foreign and defense policy toward the Gulf states, Iraq, and Syria.

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