Iran

Policy Analysis on Iran

Smoke is seen at a Saudi oil facility in Abqaiq, 2019 - source: Reuters

Will a Sense of Revenge Spur Iran to Attack Saudi Arabia?

While the regime doubles down on its domestic crackdown, it has increased its threatening rhetoric abroad as well, potentially drawing U.S. assets into a new round of military escalation reminiscent of summer 2019.

Oct 4, 2022

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Farzin Nadimi

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Iraqi Militia Group Makes Credible New Threat Against the Gulf States

The facade group in question tends to follow through on its warnings, so its latest rhetoric about using developments in Yemen as cause for new attacks should be taken seriously.

Oct 3, 2022

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Hamdi Malik
Michael Knights

◆ Militia Spotlight

Iran's Ali Karimi, wearing green wristbands at a 2010 World Cup qualifier - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

Celebrities, the Clergy, and Succession: Wild Cards in Iran’s Protests

By targeting celebs and financially coopting the clergy, the regime has revealed a great deal about what it sees as its greatest vulnerabilities.

Sep 30, 2022

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Mehdi Khalaji

Fikra Forum

The Captagon War: Smuggling on the Jordanian-Syrian Border

As drug smuggling increases across Jordan’s border with Syria, Jordanian authorities need to seek solutions in both the security and social spheres.

Sep 30, 2022

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Saud Al-Sharafat

Iranian morality police confront women in Tehran - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

How Iran’s Protests Differ from Past Movements

The unrest has shown that many young people are not only rejecting the regime, but also steering away from long-time actors such as the clergy, reformers, and dissident politicians inside and outside the country.

Sep 28, 2022

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Mehdi Khalaji

Fikra Forum

Iran on the Threshold of Another Revolution

The most recent wave of protests in Iran appears more unified and determined, suggesting it may be the start of something much bigger.

Sep 28, 2022

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Shukriya Bradost

Articles & Testimony

Letting Iran Go Nuclear

Tehran's program continues to gallop ahead, and the United States is doing very little about it.

Sep 23, 2022

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Robert Satloff

Articles & Testimony

Regional Security Cooperation Partnerships in the Middle East

The Abraham Accords have substantially increased the region’s options for countering Iranian threats, but the past performance of Arab coalitions should make policymakers cautious about expecting too much from new alliances.

Sep 21, 2022

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David Schenker

Fikra Forum

Pragmatic Re-Balancing: the Saudi Dual Outreach to Israel and Iran

While the Middle East remains littered with flashpoints, Saudi Arabia is reaching out to Israel and Iran in an attempt to defuse simmering tensions and build consensus, with the Kingdom shifting from a confrontational to fence-mending approach.

Sep 20, 2022

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Leonardo Jacopo Maria Mazzucco

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

SDR Allocations in the Middle East: Helpful, but No Silver Bullet

Various governments have made good use of last year’s unprecedented IMF allocation, but the Ukraine war, ongoing debt issues, and other economic problems are a reminder that the region cannot sidestep deeper reforms indefinitely.

Sep 20, 2022

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Jonah Shrock

The Iranian catamaran missile corvette Shahid Soleimani on its launch in 2022

Brief Analysis

New Iranian Warship Signals Longer Maritime Reach, More Aggressive Strategy

Although Tehran tends to exaggerate its naval achievements and blue-water capabilities, the heavy investments it has made in this sector are yielding regionally significant progress.

Sep 16, 2022

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Farzin Nadimi

Russian President Putin and Iranian President Raisi meet in Tehran in 2022 - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

Iran One Step Closer to SCO Membership

Assessing the real benefits—and limits—of joining the so-called “anti-NATO” can help policymakers better understand what Tehran, China, Russia, and other participants are getting out of their summits.

Sep 14, 2022

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Nicole Grajewski

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Profile: Al-Warithuun

Al-Warithuun is a "resistance" brand with a recurring connection to kinetic operations that are directed by Iran's Qods Force but intended to be deniable.

Sep 13, 2022

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Michael Knights
Hamdi Malik
Crispin Smith

◆ Militia Spotlight: Profiles

Articles & Testimony

A New Iran Deal Won’t Prevent an Iranian Bomb

Tehran’s program is far more advanced than in 2015, so only a credible threat of force will stop the regime from crossing the nuclear weapons threshold.

Sep 9, 2022

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Dennis Ross

Articles & Testimony

In Rejecting Iran Nuclear Deal, Israeli Rivals Are of One Mind

Lapid and Netanyahu both oppose resuming the JCPOA—but they would be unlikely to say otherwise publicly even if they supported the latest proposals.

Sep 7, 2022

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Neri Zilber

U.S. Navy image of an Iranian vessel attempting to capture a U.S. naval drone - source: Department of Defense

Brief Analysis

Iranian Seizures Raise Questions About Unmanned Maritime Operations

More trouble may await U.S. vessels unless officials work resolutely to protect them and establish effective guidelines for their safe operation.

Sep 7, 2022

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Farzin Nadimi

Brief Analysis

Removing All Militias From Baghdad’s International Zone

Iran-backed PMF units shot first in the latest showdown, so they should hardly be the ones left in charge of security in the government center.

Aug 31, 2022

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Michael Knights

Sadrist protestors, Republic Palace, Baghdad, August 29, 2022

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Militias Show Message Discipline During Sadrist Clashes

Centralized direction was evident as "resistance" outlets carried out their (apparently successful) public relations campaign to claim the moral high ground.

Aug 30, 2022

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Hamdi Malik
Michael Knights

◆ Militia Spotlight

U.S. Central Command graphic, Aug 15, 2022 drone attack on Al Tanf

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Kataib Hezbollah's Role in the August 15 al-Tanf Attack

The Syria strike was launched from the militia's bastion in Iraq and used Iranian-provided KAS-04 explosive drones.

Aug 25, 2022

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Michael Knights

◆ Militia Spotlight

Articles & Testimony

Biden’s Indifference Has Given Iran the Upper Hand in Iraq

In light of Tehran’s concerted efforts to reverse last year’s electoral setback, it has become too risky to let Baghdad’s nascent democracy simply fend for itself.

Aug 24, 2022

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David Schenker

Supported by the

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

Today, the Islamic Republic of Iran poses the most serious and urgent set of security challenges to the United States and its allies in the greater Middle East. Since the Khomeini revolution in 1979, Iran has sought to export its radical ideology through the use of terrorism, subversion, and support to ideological fellow-travelers throughout the Muslim world.

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Featured experts

Farzin Nadimi

Farzin Nadimi, a Senior Fellow with The Washington Institute, is a Washington-based analyst specializing in the security and defense affairs of Iran and the Persian Gulf region.

Patrick Clawson

Patrick Clawson is the Morningstar Senior Fellow and Research Counselor at The Washington Institute.

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Policy Analysis on Iran

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

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Policy Analysis on Iran

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

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