Gulf States

Since a maximum pressure policy requires maximum deterrence, the president should avoid tweets and actions that undercut U.S. credibility regarding the use of force, while authorizing the requisite rules of engagement.

Given the potential for sideline progress toward healing the rift and refocusing on Iran, this year’s diplomatic theater will be more closely watched than usual.

Amid Saudi stock sell-offs, Russian production limits, U.S. tariff showdowns, and a flurry of other factors, the potential impact of the cartel’s Vienna meetings is difficult to predict.

Bahrain’s prime minister, Sheikh Khalifa bin Salman al-Khalifa, has held his position since 1971, the year his country gained independence from Britain, but he is now eighty-four and evidently in uncertain health. Potential candidates to replace him include Crown Prince Salman or even a much younger nephew, Nasser bin Hamad, mirroring the generational handover in Qatar and Saudi Arabia. But the Khawalids, an influential, once-sidelined branch of the ruling family, also merit attention as Bahrain nears the end of an era.

The new agreement will score a win if it brings the most important players to the table for wider talks, but implementing its often-vague provisions so quickly will prove challenging.

Despite long-documented public weariness with Middle East conflicts, Trump’s successor could well recognize the value of reestablishing American credibility in the region.

The Persian Gulf is more crucial in oil terms, but if hostilities expand to the Red Sea, Iran could gain extra leverage against its adversaries on energy and trade matters.

The crown prince’s televised apologies and welcome domestic reforms are overshadowed by his government’s ongoing litany of human rights abuses.

By working effectively with the UN, Washington and Riyadh can help foster global consensus on Iran’s culpability, creating a firm basis for multilateral censure that could induce caution in Tehran.