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Gulf States

Policy Analysis on Gulf States

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Brief Analysis
Lessons of the UAE Breakthrough: How We Got Here, and Why the U.S. Role Remains Central
Statements and actions by Israel and the UAE show how much regional decisionmaking is still shaped by U.S. assurances that enable parties to calibrate their cost-benefit analyses—an approach that could serve as a template for potential future Israel-Gulf ties.
Aug 17, 2020
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  • David Makovsky
Articles & Testimony
The Slow but Steady Progress to Israel’s Peace with the UAE
Years of burgeoning trade and quiet U.S. diplomacy helped lay the groundwork for a move that is only partly focused on improving the bilateral relationship.
Aug 14, 2020
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  • Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
The Israel-UAE Agreement Is a Key Step for Peace and Sends a Crucial Message to Palestinians
Emirati leaders apparently understood that this move would preserve the two-state option and preempt Iran from exploiting the annexation issue—while also opening access to previously off-limits U.S. weaponry.
Aug 13, 2020
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  • Dennis Ross
Articles & Testimony
Israel-UAE Deal Achieves a Middle East Rarity: It’s Win-Win-Win, Palestinians Included
Arab countries that have official relations with Israel are more effective at advancing Palestinian interests, and now Abu Dhabi has joined their ranks.
Aug 13, 2020
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  • Ghaith al-Omari
Brief Analysis
Iran Applies Maximum Power to Annual IRGC Naval Exercise
Coming soon after Western naval redeployments in the Gulf and explosions at sensitive Iranian sites, the recent drills illustrate the regime’s eagerness to reassert its deterrence by showing off new weapons and capabilities.
Aug 10, 2020
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  • Farzin Nadimi
Articles & Testimony
Is China Helping Saudi Arabia to Build a Nuclear Bomb?
Riyadh has now ticked the first two boxes on the enrichment checklist and might already be working on the others.
Aug 5, 2020
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  • Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
How Might Iran Respond to Foreign Sabotage?
Given the dilemmas involved in retaliating for recent acts of sabotage and the death of Qasem Soleimani, Iran will likely defer any substantial military action against U.S. targets until shortly before or after the November election.
Aug 4, 2020
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  • Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
Saudi Arabia’s Soccer Setback
Riyadh’s failed attempt to buy a high-profile English Premier League club will be examined closely by foreign investors and regional competitors alike.
Jul 31, 2020
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  • Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Riyadh Agreement Redux: Political Gains Still Dogged by Implementation Concerns
Reactivating the 2019 accord is a promising step that could ease tensions in south Yemen and advance wider national negotiations, but only if coalition members are able to put its detailed requirements into effect.
Jul 30, 2020
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  • Elana DeLozier
  • Zied Bouchlaghem
Articles & Testimony
Shifting Sands in the House of Saud with a King’s Declining Health
King Salman may not be on his deathbed, but his son is renowned for not wanting to waste an opportunity.
Jul 21, 2020
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  • Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States Under Stress
As Riyadh aims to revamp the kingdom’s place in the international community, its near-term approach to Iran and Israel will have much to say about the Gulf neighborhood’s future trajectory.
Jul 15, 2020
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  • Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Sunset of the Iran Arms Embargo:
The Narrow Path to a Policy Compromise
Delinking the embargo from the nuclear deal could offer the best hope of reducing tensions within the P5+1 while also limiting Iran’s access to sophisticated weaponry.
Jun 29, 2020
◆
  • Michael Singh
Brief Analysis
Iran Signals a Toughened Stance by Adding to Its Naval Arsenal
The regime may eventually use larger vessels to project power beyond the Gulf, but even its more modest recent additions portend further confrontations and weapons proliferation in local waters.
Jun 18, 2020
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  • Farzin Nadimi
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
Qatar Without Tamim
Sudden Succession Essay Series
Qatar's break with Saudi Arabia and its Gulf neighbors remains unresolved, and rumors circulate of bids to replace Tamim bin Khalifa al-Thani, Qatar’s forty-year-old emir, with one of his historically marginalized rivals.
Jun 15, 2020
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  • Simon Henderson
◆ Sudden Succession Essay Series
Brief Analysis
Middle East Mega-Trends, COVID-19, and Beyond:
Views from France
A leading scholar of Islam explores the region’s crises and their effects on Western policy, assessing what has changed since the Arab Spring.
Jun 12, 2020
◆
  • Gilles Kepel
Articles & Testimony
You May Pay More at the Pump, as OPEC+ Cuts Oil Production
The cartel’s latest bid to increase profits will likely be counterbalanced by depressed summer demand and increased output by other producers.
Jun 8, 2020
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  • Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
Khashoggi’s Family Forgives His Killers, But Will the World Forget the Saudi Scandal?
Whether continued campaigns to hold Riyadh accountable for the crime succeed or not, the crown prince’s economic ‘Vision’ is increasingly likely to slip by another decade or more.
May 23, 2020
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  • Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Rethinking U.S. Policy Toward the Fractured GCC
Genuinely resolving the various entrenched disputes between GCC states is unlikely, so Washington should focus instead on managing relations with them bilaterally while still maximizing regional security.
May 12, 2020
◆
  • Nabeel Nowairah
Articles & Testimony
Has Trump Finally Lost Patience with the Saudis?
Whatever combination of factors spurred the latest withdrawal of U.S. military equipment from the kingdom, the administration is tempting fate given Iran’s ongoing challenges and shifting tactics in the Gulf.
May 8, 2020
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  • Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
What Turned the Battle for Tripoli?
A boost in Turkish drones and air defense systems enabled forces in Tripoli to establish local air superiority and ease pressure on the capital, leaving each side’s foreign patrons with tough choices about whether to escalate further or take steps to halt the fighting.
May 6, 2020
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  • Ben Fishman
  • Conor Hiney

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Supported by the

Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy

The Washington Institute's Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy embodies the Institute's long-term research focus on the conservative Arab Gulf states -- Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman -- and the key role these countries play collectively as a primary source of the world's oil and natural gas.

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Featured experts

Michael Eisenstadt
Michael Eisenstadt
Michael Eisenstadt is the Kahn Senior Fellow and director of The Washington Institute's Military and Security Studies Program.
Simon Henderson
Simon Henderson
Simon Henderson is the Baker Senior Fellow and director of the Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy at The Washington Institute, specializing in energy matters and the conservative Arab states of the Persian Gulf.
Michael Knights
Michael Knights
Michael Knights is the Jill and Jay Bernstein Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute and cofounder of the Militia Spotlight platform, which offers in-depth analysis of developments related to Iran-backed militias.
Elizabeth Dent - source: The Washington Institute
Elizabeth Dent
Elizabeth Dent is a Senior Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, where she focuses on U.S. foreign and defense policy toward the Gulf states, Iraq, and Syria.
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