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Gulf States

Policy Analysis on Gulf States

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Brief Analysis
How the Abraham Accords Look Forward, Not Back
Close reading of Israel’s agreements with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain shows how their strictly bilateral focus could affect the chances for people-to-people engagement and regional security cooperation, depending on each government's political will.
Sep 16, 2020
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  • David Makovsky
Articles & Testimony
Why Moscow Is Quiet on the Israel-UAE Peace Deal
The fact that American rather than Russian mediation helped broker a major Middle East peace agreement is a blow to Putin’s ongoing quest for restored great-power status.
Sep 15, 2020
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  • Anna Borshchevskaya
Articles & Testimony
'Farewell, Fossil Fuels'? What Oil's Demise Will Do to the World's Leading Economies
The combination of new demand projections, green consumer trends, pandemic-related shifts, and other factors may not spell the end of Middle Eastern oil economies quite yet, but it is the first draft of their obituary.
Sep 15, 2020
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  • Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
The F-35 Triangle: America, Israel, the United Arab Emirates
Selling the advanced U.S. jet to a foreign government ought to signal the highest confidence in that country’s warfighting capabilities, decisionmaking on the use of force, and commitment to protecting sensitive technology, but the UAE’s record on each of these issues is mixed.
Sep 15, 2020
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  • Barbara A. Leaf
  • Dana Stroul
Video
Brief Analysis
The UAE-Israel Breakthrough: Bilateral and Regional Implications and U.S. Policy
Former diplomats and experts discuss what steps each party should take after the historic White House signing ceremony, and how to bring the Palestinians and other actors into the fold.
Sep 14, 2020
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  • Ebtesam al-Ketbi
  • Dore Gold
  • Barbara A. Leaf
  • David Makovsky
Mahmoud Abbas Checking His Watch
Articles & Testimony
The Middle East Is Changing. Will Palestinians Be Left Behind?
The Palestinian issue has become far less of a priority for most Arab states, who now tend to see Israel as a bulwark against regional threats and a partner on urgent health, water, and food-security needs.
Sep 13, 2020
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  • Dennis Ross
Brief Analysis
Bahrain Move Toward Israel Risks Domestic Reaction
The announcement of a peace deal between Israel and Bahrain suggests that the Gulf island kingdom has reassessed the danger of opposition from both its majority Shia population and its Sunni community.
Sep 11, 2020
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  • Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Qatar Strategic Dialogue Offers Opening to End Gulf Rift
The Washington meeting between the United States and Qatar, overlapping with the Israel-UAE signing ceremony on normalization, creates a unique opportunity to resolve the dispute between U.S. allies.
Sep 11, 2020
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  • Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
The Road Beyond UAE-Israel Normalization
Netanyahu’s strategy of bypassing the intractable Palestinian issue has paid substantial dividends worldwide, but a peace treaty ‘domino effect’ is unlikely in the near term given various calculations in Riyadh and other Arab capitals.
Sep 10, 2020
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  • Ehud Yaari
Articles & Testimony
Here’s How Palestinians Could Benefit from the Diplomatic Deal Between Israel and the United Arab Emirates
Skillful U.S. and Arab diplomacy could use normalization and the accompanying annexation freeze as a base for renewed momentum toward an eventual two-state solution.
Sep 10, 2020
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  • David Makovsky
  • Daniel Shapiro
Brief Analysis
Saudi Military Chief Accused of Corruption
The general’s firing will prompt speculation about changes in Yemen policy and royal family opposition to the crown prince.
Sep 1, 2020
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  • Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Normalization Can Inject New Life into the Arab Peace Initiative
With careful diplomacy, blunt discussion of national interests, and reciprocal steps on the ground, a group of like-minded Arab states could advance Palestinian-Israeli peacemaking while still preserving the API’s core.
Aug 31, 2020
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  • Ghaith al-Omari
Articles & Testimony
Peace for Warplanes?
How domestic and foreign disputes over the potential sale of F-35 jets to the UAE could complicate the country's normalization deal with Israel.
Aug 31, 2020
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  • Neri Zilber
Brief Analysis
Beyond the Ceasefire in Libya
Publicly committing to a ceasefire is a positive development, but many details still need to be resolved with active U.S. support, especially security arrangements in central Libya and the speedy resumption of oil exports.
Aug 25, 2020
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  • Anas El Gomati
  • Ben Fishman
Brief Analysis
Saudi-Pakistan Rift Develops Over India
Growing tensions between the two allies have both Islamic and nuclear angles.
Aug 21, 2020
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  • Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
The Gulf’s Calculus on UAE-Israel Deal
Why did the United Arab Emirates decide to establish formal diplomatic ties with Israel? How much was Iran a factor?
Aug 19, 2020
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  • Barbara A. Leaf
Brief Analysis
Normalization Is Making Cairo Uncomfortable
The UAE’s deal with Israel may render Egypt a junior partner in future peace diplomacy, aggravating its existing frustration over years of financial dependence on the small Gulf state and a string of foreign policy setbacks.
Aug 19, 2020
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  • Haisam Hassanein
Brief Analysis
Oman’s Sultan Devolves Some of His Powers to New Cabinet
In a series of royal decrees that imply a sharp focus on the economy, Sultan Haitham delegated key powers to various ministries for the first time while trimming and professionalizing the government.
Aug 19, 2020
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  • Elana DeLozier
Brief Analysis
The Normalization Deal Splits the Gulf States—for Now
Some Gulf governments have welcomed the paradigm-changing Israel-UAE agreement while others have not, and those who follow Abu Dhabi’s path will do so based on their own interests and timetables.
Aug 18, 2020
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  • Elana DeLozier
Articles & Testimony
Putting the UAE-Israel Agreement in Its Proper Perspective
Like all good policy decisions, the deal emerged from the enlightened self-interest of the key parties, but the stakes are not as high as with Israel’s previous two Arab peace treaties.
Aug 18, 2020
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  • Robert Satloff

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Supported by the

Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy

The Washington Institute's Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy embodies the Institute's long-term research focus on the conservative Arab Gulf states -- Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman -- and the key role these countries play collectively as a primary source of the world's oil and natural gas.

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Featured experts

Michael Eisenstadt
Michael Eisenstadt
Michael Eisenstadt is the Kahn Senior Fellow and director of The Washington Institute's Military and Security Studies Program.
Simon Henderson
Simon Henderson
Simon Henderson is the Baker Senior Fellow and director of the Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy at The Washington Institute, specializing in energy matters and the conservative Arab states of the Persian Gulf.
Michael Knights
Michael Knights
Michael Knights is the Jill and Jay Bernstein Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute and cofounder of the Militia Spotlight platform, which offers in-depth analysis of developments related to Iran-backed militias.
Elizabeth Dent - source: The Washington Institute
Elizabeth Dent
Elizabeth Dent is a Senior Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, where she focuses on U.S. foreign and defense policy toward the Gulf states, Iraq, and Syria.
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