Great Power Competition

Amid global uncertainty, Gulf states are seeking to strike a delicate balance between old and new partners.

As with Russia, Persian Gulf states may be reluctant to cross Beijing if conflict erupts in Asia, but Washington should remind them that even narrow financial action can help counter any Chinese moves on Taiwan.

The Iranian president’s high-profile Beijing trip reaffirmed the relationship’s limits—and will probably reinforce Tehran’s uninterest in nuclear compromise.

The facility is seemingly intended for launching surprise maritime interdiction missions in the Persian Gulf region, mainly aimed at U.S. Fifth Fleet assets—though it probably won’t be able to accommodate Iran’s potential future fleet of Russian jets.

As the cartel’s top players discuss their future production goals, Western leaders are becoming increasingly concerned that oil policy will be warped by Moscow’s desire to grind out a victory in Ukraine and punish Kyiv’s backers.

The key to an “F-16s for NATO expansion” agreement lies in the sequencing, with President Biden facing congressional opposition and President Erdogan dealing with economic and election challenges.

Despite the obstacles to expanded cooperation, Russian aid could help Tehran promote repression at home and instability abroad, so the United States and its allies should seek to deter such collaboration wherever possible.

Some U.S. allies believe the Biden administration has been noticeably muted regarding Turkey's escalations in northern Syria and the Kurdistan Region of Iraq.

Moscow’s willingness to approve another UN extension has more to do with advancing normalization between Turkey and the Assad regime than helping Syrian civilians, who will remain hostage to Russian demands if nothing is done before the next vote this summer.