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Energy and Economics

Policy Analysis on Energy and Economics

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Brief Analysis
Iran’s Push for ‘Regime Change’ in Saudi Arabia and Washington
Emboldened by their success in attacking Gulf and U.S. interests with relative impunity, Iranian leaders are now aiming to disgrace the Saudi royal family and foster Trump’s defeat in the 2020 election.
Sep 20, 2019
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  • Mehdi Khalaji
Brief Analysis
Moving the Goal Posts: Iran’s Uranium Enrichment Program
Although technical obstacles may prevent Tehran from fully deploying its advanced centrifuges, it could still augment its enrichment program in ways that should concern the international community.
Sep 19, 2019
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  • Elana DeLozier
Brief Analysis
Operating in the ‘Gray Zone’ to Counter Iran
The best way to counter Iran’s asymmetric strategy in Saudi Arabia and elsewhere is a U.S. gray zone strategy, which can help manage escalation and buy time for the administration’s pressure policy to work.
Sep 18, 2019
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  • Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
The ‘Rebuild Syria’ Exhibition: Iranian Influence and U.S. Sanctions
This year’s show provides a window into Tehran’s strategy for cementing its soft power, and may point to potential sanctions violations by companies from U.S. partner countries.
Sep 17, 2019
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  • Oula A. Alrifai
Articles & Testimony
Trump Must React to the Attacks on Saudi Arabia. But a Quick Fix Won’t Be Enough.
U.S. pressure has put Iran in a corner economically but not politically or militarily, so the Supreme Leader seems to believe there is little to lose unless Washington shows it will ease sanctions or launch strikes.
Sep 16, 2019
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  • Dennis Ross
Brief Analysis
A Credibility Test for U.S.-Saudi Defense Relations and Iran Deterrence
The suspected missile attack is the most significant strike on Gulf energy targets in decades, and consequences need to be levied on Iran, whether in the military or diplomatic spheres.
Sep 16, 2019
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  • Michael Knights
Articles & Testimony
Iran’s Strength and Strategy Show with Saudi Oilfield Attacks
So far, Tehran appears to have judged quite well what it can get away with, a track record that will likely give Riyadh pause as it considers its response.
Sep 16, 2019
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  • Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Tunisians to Elect a New President
With no clear front-runner emerging and public disillusionment mounting, the struggling Arab democracy is transitioning from a period of consensus to uncertainty.
Sep 13, 2019
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  • Sarah Feuer
Articles & Testimony
The Development of Tunisia’s Domestic Counter-Terrorism Finance Capability
The country is fast becoming a regional leader in meeting global CT norms, developing the necessary toolkits, and integrating its efforts with those of foreign governments.
Sep 10, 2019
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  • Aaron Y. Zelin
  • Katherine Bauer
Brief Analysis
The Challenges Facing the New Saudi Oil Minister
Riyadh’s hopes of raising money through a partial sell-off of Saudi Aramco depend on the price of oil, which failed to rise sufficiently under the previous minister.
Sep 10, 2019
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  • Simon Henderson
Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei delivers public remarks.
Brief Analysis
Is Iran Negotiating Its Way to Negotiations?
While Tehran’s internal debate about engagement with Washington intensifies, its words and actions already seem to be shaping—even unintentionally—the terms of any future talks.
Aug 30, 2019
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  • Omer Carmi
Articles & Testimony
The Flaw in Trump’s Maximum Pressure Campaign Toward Iran
Tehran won’t change its behavior without the prospect of real economic relief, coupled with the threat of meaningful consequences for bringing the region to the brink of war.
Aug 29, 2019
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  • Dennis Ross
  • Dana Stroul
Brief Analysis
Arab States Give China a Pass on Uyghur Crackdown
Leaders in the Middle East have calculated that defending the Muslim minority is not worth the risk of losing Chinese economic, political, and military assistance.
Aug 26, 2019
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  • Haisam Hassanein
Articles & Testimony
The U.S.-Iranian Scuffle Over a Ship Is a Sideshow to Events in the Gulf
Thus far, Britain’s willingness to stand firm in the Persian Gulf has been more consequential than Washington’s legal challenge in the Mediterranean Sea.
Aug 22, 2019
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  • Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Egypt Takes Another Step Toward China
Port projects and other outreach may help President Sisi check off some of his policy goals, but giving China such a foothold could threaten a number of U.S. interests in the region.
Aug 19, 2019
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  • Haisam Hassanein
Brief Analysis
Will Turkey and China Become Friends?
Despite their limited economic relations and ongoing differences over the Uyghur issue, the two countries could grow closer if Western partners fail to provide the financial boost Turkey needs so badly.
Aug 14, 2019
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  • Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Militias Are Threatening Public Safety in Iraq
Exploding ammo dumps are only one of many problems posed by out-of-control militias, making it more urgent than ever to warehouse heavy weapons, halt mass detentions, and protect Iraqis and Iraq’s investors alike.
Aug 14, 2019
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  • Michael Knights
  • Alex Almeida
Brief Analysis
Turkey’s Rising Wave of Social Protests
This year’s Istanbul election and last year’s move to a presidential system have unified and galvanized the opposition, raising questions about Erdogan’s next move.
Aug 12, 2019
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  • Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Growing Anti-Syrian Sentiment in Turkey
Refugees are being blamed for the country’s economic and social troubles, resulting in online hate speech, vigilante violence, and further pressure on the government to change the status quo in north Syria.
Aug 5, 2019
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  • Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Twenty Years Under King Mohammed VI (Part 2): Foreign Policy Developments
The king has invested considerable diplomatic capital in Africa, Europe, the United States, and China, but the longstanding Western Sahara dispute remains a source of tension with neighboring Algeria.
Jul 29, 2019
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  • Sarah Feuer
  • Reda Ayadi

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