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All Policy Analysis by Grant Rumley
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Brief Analysis
The Future of al-Tanf Garrison in Syria
The remote U.S. base remains a relatively low-cost, high-impact tool for preventing an Islamic State resurgence, disrupting hostile Iranian activity, and exerting leverage over Syria’s long-term outlook.
Dec 6, 2021
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Grant Rumley
David Schenker
Brief Analysis
Turkey’s F-16 Request May Not Stave Off the Inevitable
Washington and Ankara have significant diplomatic and security incentives for considering the deal, while rejecting it outright would likely hasten Erdogan’s drift into Putin’s orbit.
Oct 28, 2021
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Grant Rumley
Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Political Uncertainty Deepens in Tunisia
Washington should publicly emphasize the importance of preserving hard-won progress on political pluralism and human rights, while privately conveying that Tunis must return to the constitutional framework in order to receive MCC and IMF funding.
Aug 31, 2021
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Sarah Feuer
Grant Rumley
Ben Fishman
Aaron Y. Zelin
Brief Analysis
Managing Middle East Defense Partnerships Amid Great Power Competition
The U.S. government can counter the narrative of withdrawal by disassociating its regional commitment from the number of “boots on the ground,” building longer-term security cooperation plans, and clarifying its CAATSA sanctions policy.
Jul 13, 2021
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Grant Rumley
Kathryn Wheelbarger
Brief Analysis
Preserving the Lebanese Armed Forces Amid State Decline
Although continued pressure on the country’s political elites is necessary, the U.S. government needs to find more immediate ways of helping soldiers and citizens by making creative use of State, Defense, and congressional authorities.
Jun 9, 2021
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David Schenker
Grant Rumley
Audio
Brief Analysis
Podcast: A Military and Political Assessment of the Gaza Conflict
In this episode of the Middle East PolicyCast podcast, Grant Rumley & Neri Zilber share their assessments of the factors that sparked and escalated the May 2021 Gaza conflict and share advice for policymakers who seek to prevent the renewal of major violence between Hamas and Israel.
Jun 7, 2021
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Grant Rumley
Neri Zilber
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Middle East PolicyCast
Brief Analysis
A Military Assessment of the Israel-Hamas Conflict
Both sides employed new methods in this round, and while Israel’s were more effective in military terms, the true measure of success will depend on how quickly Hamas can rebuild its warfighting capabilities and exploit any political gains.
May 25, 2021
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Grant Rumley
Neri Zilber
Articles & Testimony
The Gaza Crisis and the Clash to Come
The spike in violence and threats of new sanctions will only exacerbate months of simmering tensions between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority.
Apr 3, 2018
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Ghaith al-Omari
Grant Rumley
Articles & Testimony
Is War in Gaza Unavoidable?
A deal brokered by exiled Fatah leader Mohammad Dahlan may have fended off a war this summer, but it raises the likelihood of conflict in the future.
Aug 22, 2017
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Ghaith al-Omari
Grant Rumley
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