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All Policy Analysis by Patrick Clawson
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Brief Analysis
Mismanagement Makes Iran Vulnerable to a Different Type of U.S. Pressure
The country faces shortages of gasoline, natural gas, and electricity that make it newly susceptible to pressure against its oil product imports, not just its oil exports.
Dec 4, 2024
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
How to Judge Iranian Response Options Against Israel
Poor internal communications and miscalculation could lead Tehran to continue the cycle by striking again soon, whether directly or through its Iraqi proxies.
Nov 1, 2024
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Patrick Clawson
Michael Knights
Video
Brief Analysis
Opportunities and Risks with Iran's New Government
Three experts discuss the domestic and foreign implications of Masoud Pezeshkian’s presidential election victory—including the need to temper any expectations that he is able or willing to pursue substantial change.
Jul 18, 2024
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Patrick Clawson
Holly Dagres
Saeid Golkar
Brief Analysis
Talking Nicely with Pezeshkian While Postponing Major Steps
Iran’s new reformist president will need time to generate consensus at home before making any significant foreign policy moves; Washington should do the same.
Jul 9, 2024
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Khamenei’s Second-Round Dilemmas
Allowing a runoff in the presidential election is a somewhat risky move for the Supreme Leader, but engineering a one-round outcome would raise domestic problems of its own.
Jun 27, 2024
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Khamenei’s Presidential Choice: Weak Reformer or Strong Hardliner
Iranian presidential elections often produce surprise results, so a victory by Pezeshkian, the one reformist candidate, cannot be ruled out.
Jun 20, 2024
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Most of Iran’s Latest Presidential Aspirants Have a Domestic Background
Few of the prospective candidates have shown much interest in or talent for national security affairs, and none has articulated a vision for tamping down Iran’s aggression at home or abroad.
Jun 4, 2024
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Iran’s Emergency Election Will Signal Khamenei’s Intentions
As in past elections, the contest to determine a replacement for the late President Raisi will be less about the people’s choice and more about what direction the Supreme Leader wants the Islamic Republic to go.
May 22, 2024
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Tehran Makes Gains, But Concerns Persist About Regime Vulnerability
The regime has been able to drive economic growth, stifle mass protests, and expand its infiltration of neighboring countries, but lingering existential concerns could spur it toward even bolder courses of action—including potential nuclear breakout.
Jan 30, 2024
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Patrick Clawson
Articles & Testimony
Hamas Attacks: A Turning Point for U.S. Policy
A Statement of Washington Institute Experts
The October 7 terrorist attacks by Hamas against Israel represent a turning point that should bring home oft-overlooked realities about the Middle East and compel U.S. policymakers to rethink preconceptions about the region and America's role and interests in it.
Oct 13, 2023
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Robert Satloff
Dennis Ross
Michael Singh
Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Inside Iran’s Regime (Part 1): Growing Fissures and Poor Morale in the IRGC?
A recently leaked document—if genuine—may indicate substantial internal skepticism toward the regime’s handling of the current domestic crisis, and perhaps even pressure for limited reforms.
Mar 28, 2023
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Violence in Iran’s Uprising: What Happens If Either Side Escalates?
The regime still has additional means of making the crackdown even more lethal, and parts of the country are potentially primed to take up arms in response, with uncertain consequences on the ground.
Dec 8, 2022
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Farzin Nadimi
Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Changing Population Patterns Will Reshape the Middle East
Several of the region’s demographic heavyweights will be surpassed, and major shifts at the global level may affect how great powers vie for influence there as well.
Nov 22, 2022
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Patrick Clawson
Video
Brief Analysis
2022 Qatar World Cup: Sports, Politics & Human Rights
Watch an expert panel discussion of the political, diplomatic, economic, social, and strategic implications of the 2022 World Cup for Qatar and the wider Middle East.
Oct 28, 2022
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Susan L. Ziadeh
Marti Flacks
James M. Dorsey
Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
How Much Would Iran Gain Financially from Returning to the JCPOA?
A closer look at what funds would actually be accessible and what impact they would have on Iran’s economy.
Mar 16, 2022
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Katherine Bauer
Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Iran’s Next Budget Assumes No Nuclear Deal
The government seems to believe the economy will grow significantly even without sanctions relief or increased oil revenue.
Dec 14, 2021
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Patrick Clawson
Video
Brief Analysis
From Afghanistan to the Middle East:
Implications of the U.S. Withdrawal and Taliban Victory
Three Institute scholars discuss the fallout from Kabul, with special focus on the consequences for global jihadism, Iranian policy, and regional responses.
Aug 26, 2021
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Kathryn Wheelbarger
Aaron Y. Zelin
Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Raisi Did Not Win, Reformers Lost
Mass support for reformists has disappeared among Iran’s severely disenchanted electorate, leaving Hemmati and his circle with little means of avoiding dismal turnout and vote tallies.
Jun 22, 2021
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Patrick Clawson
Video
Brief Analysis
Iran's Coronavirus Crisis: Implications for U.S. Policy
Read or watch an expert conversation on the immediate and long-term effects of the Islamic Republic’s response to the pandemic. How will Iranian politics change? How much aid can Tehran get under sanctions? How will the global economic slowdown affect daily life there?
Apr 16, 2020
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Amir Afkhami
Mehdi Khalaji
Patrick Clawson
Katherine Bauer
Brief Analysis
Opposing an IMF Loan to Iran: Not an Outlier, Not a Barrier to Aid
Washington often objects to loans that it deems insufficiently rigorous, but its blocking attempts usually fail—and Iran has no need for the funds anyway.
Apr 14, 2020
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Patrick Clawson
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