All Policy Analysis by Andrew J. Tabler

Washington Institute experts assess the immediate fallout of the Syrian government’s advance into SDF-held parts of the northeast, including mutual disinformation campaigns, implications for the Islamic State threat, the terms of new agreements with the Kurds, and the calculus of outside actors like the United States, Israel, and Turkey.

Damascus has registered clear gains on arresting and deporting Palestinian militants and cooperating against the Islamic State, though its progress on addressing foreign fighters is mixed, and it has stalled on the more politically complex tracks of normalizing with Israel and controlling IS detention facilities.

New oil, gas, and infrastructure initiatives have continued rolling in since the Trump administration’s removal of sanctions, but they may amount to little in the long term unless more is done to build Syria’s own capacity, tamp down on political tensions, and address bureaucratic confusion.

A Syrian official and a panel of experts debate the response to recent sectarian bloodshed in the south, including what must be done to protect minorities and pursue true transitional justice post-Assad.

The deep problems within the transitional government’s security ranks have once again been tragically exposed, so the Trump administration should increase pressure on the foreign fighter issue and related matters—for the sake of Syria’s minorities and U.S. regional interests alike.

A panel of American, Israeli, and Syrian experts discuss the prospects of cooperation and normalization between the two longtime belligerents, including the U.S. role in achieving such a deal.

Syrian civil society figures join a former U.S. official to discuss local sentiments on the ground and assess the daunting challenges of building a better state.

In the first episode of the Institute’s Syria Breakdown series, Syria analyst Andrew Tabler explains the domestic and foreign factors that led to the Assad government’s rapid demise.

The dictator’s rigidity at the negotiating table and within Syrian society left him with scant support when he needed it most, giving Washington a window for pushing a Syrian-led transition and cutting Iran’s axis for good.

The director of the Syrian Emergency Task Force joins three Washington Institute experts to discuss the stunning rebel advances in the west.

Groups supported by Iran and the Assad regime have found some local traction due in part to grievances against the Kurdish-led SDF’s governance strategy in Arab tribal areas.

Although separating fact from fiction inside the Assad regime is often difficult, Luna al-Shibl’s death is likely a harbinger of further internal changes at a sensitive international juncture.

The “carrots” approach only emboldened the regime to increase its smuggling of Captagon and weapons, but Caesar sanctions remain a potent stick.

The remarkable precision of Israeli attacks on Iranian and Hezbollah operatives in Syria has raised anxiety in Damascus and abroad.

The more the Islamic Republic and its proxy groups escalate with the United States and Israel, the greater the risks for a misstep.

Biden now has a hard choice to make: push Israel into a Gaza ceasefire or risk sustained Iran-backed escalation in the region.

Although Washington and its partners have kept the war from spreading so far, the lack of clear rules on some fronts—particularly Syria—has created a dangerous environment in which any actor might inadvertently cross someone’s red lines.

Four experts discuss what Washington can do about the latest spike in militia attacks against U.S. bases and local partners—even as they try to sustain the counterterrorism mission against the Islamic State.

The antiaircraft system poses a manageable risk to Israeli operations along its northern border, but Washington must show Moscow and its associates that any benefits to such escalation are not worth the costs.

Iran-backed groups have remained on the move since October 7, likely accounting for the increase in Israeli strike activity.