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All Policy Analysis by Soner Cagaptay
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Brief Analysis
Turkey Wants to Stitch Iraq and Syria Back Together (Part 2)
Ankara’s push for “soft recentralization” in Iraq will likely include more intensive efforts to establish the Development Road and prioritize Baghdad’s interests, though without abandoning the Kurdistan Region.
Oct 8, 2024
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Turkey Wants to Stitch Iraq and Syria Back Together (Part 1)
Having observed two decades of instability across its southern borders and anticipating U.S. withdrawals, Ankara is planning steps to end the volatility, including potentially wide-ranging agreements with the Assad regime.
Oct 8, 2024
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Israel-Turkey Relations Nearing a Rupture
Even with U.S. intercession, the assassination of a Hamas leader in Tehran could harden Ankara’s stance against Israel and spur a fatal cycle of diplomatic and economic retaliation.
Aug 9, 2024
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
The Iraq-Turkey Reset
From water rights to PKK violence, a recent summit seemed to remove several long-festering thorns from the bilateral relationship, creating potential challenges and benefits alike for U.S. interests in Iraq and beyond.
May 29, 2024
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Soner Cagaptay
Selin Uysal
Bilal Wahab
Brief Analysis
Will Turkey Cut Ties with Israel?
Although the latest rift is more than rhetorical, Ankara is unlikely to sever ties completely—unless Israel blocks it from participating in Gaza’s reconstruction.
May 8, 2024
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Istanbul Election Will Shape Erdogan’s Policy Trajectory
If the president’s faction takes the city back from the opposition on March 31, he may feel comfortable enough to focus on more positive legacy-building steps, but a loss could see him double down on nativist and populist policies at home and abroad.
Mar 22, 2024
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
How Turkey Moved East
Once Washington comes to grips with Erdogan’s “Anatolian” foreign policy, it will have a better chance of steering the relationship in ways that support U.S. interests without unduly boosting Russia and other adversaries.
Feb 19, 2024
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
The Future of U.S.-Turkish Ties: A New Relationship, Not a Reset
Despite the welcome news on Sweden, the old Turkey is not coming back, but Erdogan’s apparent shift to legacy-building mode will give Washington opportunities to leverage his influence abroad.
Jan 26, 2024
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Erdogan’s Russian Victory
His months-long efforts to neuter the opposition ahead of this weekend’s win suggest that Turkey is shifting closer to a Putin-style autocracy than an illiberal European democracy.
May 29, 2023
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Soner Cagaptay
Video
Brief Analysis
Turkey's Presidential Runoff: What to Expect May 28 and After
A panel of journalists and scholars discuss the policy implications of various scenarios that might emerge from the final round of Turkey’s election.
May 26, 2023
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Elcin Poyrazlar
Emre Peker
Humeyra Pamuk
Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
East and West: Which Way Does Turkey Face?
President Erdogan has tried to reshape the country in his own image, as socially conservative, politically Islamist, and Middle Eastern, with the ultimate goal of reviving its great power status.
May 15, 2023
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Even If Erdogan Is Defeated, Turkey Is Still Up for Grabs
Western gestures on trade and defense could reinforce a pro-democratic outcome and counter interference by Vladimir Putin.
May 11, 2023
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Soner Cagaptay
Video
Brief Analysis
Turkey's Historic May 14 Elections: What to Expect
Watch an expert webcast as scholars and journalists preview Turkey's historic 2023 elections and their implications for Turkish policy, the wider Middle East, and Washington's relationship with Ankara.
May 12, 2023
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Soner Cagaptay
Seren Selvin Korkmaz
Emre Peker
Ragip Soylu
Video
Articles & Testimony
Turkish Elections: The Last Vote?
In this video, Beyer Family Fellow Soner Cagaptay provides context for the upcoming election and assesses Erdogan's prospects for success.
May 5, 2023
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Turkey’s Resilient Autocrat
A closer look at how the levers of state—and powerful friends—could help Erdogan win his toughest election yet.
May 4, 2023
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Soner Cagaptay
In-Depth Reports
Turkey's Pivotal 2023 Elections:
Issues, Potential Outcomes, and What Comes After
Opinion polls offer hope for the challengers, but Erdogan's media control and other factors could foil their efforts to finally topple the president and his ruling bloc.
Apr 19, 2023
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Unpacking Turkey’s Non-Binary Ukraine War Policy
Erdogan's stance has been pro-Ukrainian but not anti-Russian, enabling him to strike a delicate balance between NATO expectations, Moscow’s economic lifeline, and domestic political pressures.
Mar 7, 2023
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Turkey’s Disaster—and Erdogan’s: How the Earthquake Could Spell the End of His Rule
The president might find the current situation ominously similar to two decades ago, when a combination of devastating natural disaster and deep public dissatisfaction swept his Islamist faction to power.
Mar 1, 2023
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Soner Cagaptay
Video
Brief Analysis
Earthquake in Syria and Turkey: U.S. Policy Implications
A panel of experts offers on-the-ground insights from the disaster zone and discusses the political and policy consequences of the still-unfolding humanitarian crisis.
Feb 17, 2023
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Can Selcuki
Amany Qaddour
Soner Cagaptay
Andrew J. Tabler
Brief Analysis
How Will Turkey’s Earthquake Affect the Current Election Cycle?
Once Ankara meets the initial challenge of determining an election date amid unimaginable human tragedy, it will face a campaign season dominated by debates over the conduct of relief efforts and the government’s level of responsibility for the growing death toll.
Feb 14, 2023
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Soner Cagaptay
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