All Policy Analysis by Hanin Ghaddar

By encouraging the new Saudi-mediated talks with Damascus, Washington and its partners can help secure Beirut’s sovereignty, contain Hezbollah smuggling, and stabilize Lebanon’s other border with Israel.

Beirut stands at the goal line of a major win for the Middle East, but only if America quarterbacks the last push.

The new cabinet appointments appeared to sideline Hezbollah’s camp, but the group retained control over the crucial Finance Ministry and may find other ways of interfering with security decisions, the reconstruction process, and the next elections.

Weakening Hezbollah permanently will be difficult, but for once the goal is attainable—if Beirut has the courage to keep the group out of Lebanon’s coffers and make the army do its job.

Salam has promised to enforce accountability and implement the ceasefire with Israel; independent Shia cabinet ministers can help him reach those goals while showing there is an alternative to Hezbollah.

Watch or read remarks from a former LAF general, the IDF’s former head of strategic planning, and an expert Lebanon analyst during a new series of virtual panels held by The Washington Institute.

The group has been greatly diminished by a year of war, but the Lebanese people won’t feel the difference unless the international community pushes Beirut and the LAF to reestablish trust and authority.

Four experts discuss the agreement’s detailed security provisions, the prospects for successful implementation, and the potential impact on other regional players.

Border security is chiefly a matter of state sovereignty, so the international community must pressure Lebanese officials to take essential political and security steps even before attempting to negotiate ceasefire terms with Israel.

Iran’s proxy faces steep challenges on the leadership and military fronts, and the international community can now act vigorously to free Lebanon from its grip.

The group must decide between walking back its threat to northern Israel or risking the loss of its advanced missile capabilities, which Iran regards as a crucial insurance policy.

Israeli and Lebanese experts join two former U.S. officials to discuss what each party was thinking before, during, and after this weekend’s exchange of strikes—and whether war in the north has become inevitable regardless of near-term de-escalation.

Regardless of how the group responds to Israel’s latest leadership strike, its desperation to stop the bleeding will create big diplomatic opportunities for the United States and its partners—if done right.

A former Israeli military planner joins three experts to discuss each side’s current calculus and the U.S. policy implications if they opt for war or a truce.

If Hezbollah’s conflict with Israel widens, the group could use its large missile and drone arsenal to attack Cyprus, the allied military presence based there, and a wide array of shipping and energy assets in the East Mediterranean.

Most Lebanese Sunnis have resisted the MB’s mobilization so far, but this sentiment could shift quickly due to pressures from the Gaza war, the economic crisis, the local political vacuum, and the inroads being made by Hamas and Hezbollah.

A regularly updated visual tracker of northern border attacks by Hezbollah, the IDF, and Palestinian groups during the Hamas-Israel war.

The U.S.-Israel rift over how to handle southern Gaza could embolden the Lebanese group to further accelerate its already heightened tempo of operations, though drawing clear deterrent lines could help limit the escalation.

Only a comprehensive initiative aimed at curbing Hezbollah’s influence both within Lebanon and in the region stands a chance of delivering peace for the long term.

Saleh al-Arouri served as a major operative for the group over decades, and his loss will pose challenges for Hamas and Hezbollah alike.