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Arab & Islamic Politics

Policy Analysis on Arab & Islamic Politics

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A rebel fighter belonging to the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham gestures while riding a vehicle near Aleppo in November 2024 - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
The U.S. Should Not Yet Trust Syria’s New Regime
Even as they celebrate the demise of Assad’s dictatorship, U.S. officials should take a “verify, don’t trust” approach to HTS, judging the group by its actions on the ground before considering the removal of sanctions.
Dec 13, 2024
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  • Matthew Levitt
Articles & Testimony
Hezbollah Post October 7—Beaten But Still Dangerous
The group has been greatly diminished by a year of war, but the Lebanese people won’t feel the difference unless the international community pushes Beirut and the LAF to reestablish trust and authority.
Dec 10, 2024
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  • Hanin Ghaddar
Articles & Testimony
Why Al-Assad Fell
The dictator’s rigidity at the negotiating table and within Syrian society left him with scant support when he needed it most, giving Washington a window for pushing a Syrian-led transition and cutting Iran’s axis for good.
Dec 10, 2024
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  • Andrew J. Tabler
People queue for bread in rebel-occupied Aleppo in December 2024 - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
How Syria’s ‘Diversity-Friendly’ Jihadists Plan on Building a State
As the group consolidates control in newly seized Aleppo, its leader is seeking to allay fears among minorities, pro-Assad residents, and skeptical Western officials alike.
Dec 3, 2024
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  • Aaron Y. Zelin
Imed Khemiri, a senior official in the Ennahda party and member of the Salvation Front (L) takes part in a protest, demanding the release of imprisoned journalists, activists, opposition figures and setting a date for fair presidential elections in Tunis, Tunisia May 12, 2024 - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
How Autocracy Prevailed in Tunisia
Any future democratic renewal will require an entirely new movement that goes much further toward addressing the country’s deepest economic and social injustices.
Nov 4, 2024
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  • Sarah Yerkes
  • Sabina Henneberg
Parliament of Kurdistan
Articles & Testimony
Kurdistan’s Pivotal Elections:
A Defining Moment for the Region’s Future
Disenfranchisement, party fragmentation, and external pressures are pushing Iraqi Kurdistan to a breaking point.
Oct 21, 2024
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  • Nickolay Mladenov
Protesters in New York City demand the release of U.S. citizens held hostage by Hamas in Gaza - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
Hamas Leader Yahya Sinwar’s Death Can Bring the Middle East Closer to Peace
The long-elusive terrorist was known for brutality to Israelis and Gazans alike, and his passing opens the door to diplomatic, economic, and political progress.
Oct 17, 2024
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  • Jeffrey Sonnenfeld
  • Dennis Ross
  • Steven Tian
A banner in Gaza depicts the new Hamas leader, Yahya al-Sinwar - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
How Sinwar’s Death Could Change the War
The demise of the Hamas leader and October 7 plotter could create significant diplomatic opportunities for Israel and the United States.
Oct 17, 2024
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  • Ghaith al-Omari
  • Neomi Neumann
Armed members of the Iraqi Shiite militia Asaib Ahl al-Haq demonstrate at a funeral in Iraq - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
Embracing Asaib Ahl al-Haq: Pragmatism or Naivete?
Some observers argue that the group's plans for Iraq will eventually cohere with U.S. interests, but this view ignores how its leaders are already pursuing the Hezbollah model of terrorist state capture.
Oct 15, 2024
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  • Michael Knights
Brief Analysis
A Roadmap to an Enduring Ceasefire in Lebanon
Border security is chiefly a matter of state sovereignty, so the international community must pressure Lebanese officials to take essential political and security steps even before attempting to negotiate ceasefire terms with Israel.
Oct 9, 2024
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  • Hanin Ghaddar
Brief Analysis
In Lebanon, a Rare Moment of Opportunity
Israel’s campaign has greatly diminished Hezbollah, presenting a chance for Beirut to end the war and push back against the group and its Iranian sponsors—if Lebanese elites are up to the task.
Oct 8, 2024
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  • David Schenker
(left to right) al-Aqsa Mosque, Jerusalem; an Israeli tank in Ramallah; Hamas (top) and Fatah (bottom) protests in Hebron
In-Depth Reports
Understanding Geographic Distinctions in West Bank Public Opinion
Respondents to an extensive new poll shared remarkably independent views on issues ranging from Hamas’s success in the Gaza war to the likelihood of Israel’s collapse.
Oct 8, 2024
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  • Catherine Cleveland
Nasrallah
Brief Analysis
What Nasrallah’s Death Could Mean for the Hezbollah Network
Iran’s proxy faces steep challenges on the leadership and military fronts, and the international community can now act vigorously to free Lebanon from its grip.
Sep 28, 2024
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  • Hanin Ghaddar
Flag of Tunisia
Brief Analysis
Tunisia Is Holding an Election—But Will Voters Show Up?
To counter President Saied’s electoral manipulation and increased repression, Washington should work more closely with its contacts in Tunisia’s military, civil society, and European partner governments.
Sep 27, 2024
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  • Sabina Henneberg
  • Sarah Yerkes
H.E. Yahya Cholil Staquf (“Pak Yahya”) speaks at The Washington Institute in September 2024
Brief Analysis
A New Religious Strategy for Effective Peacebuilding in the Middle East
A leading Muslim thinker explains how religious figures can play a truly effective role in regional peacebuilding by questioning the embedded norms that fuel intercommunal violence, including in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Sep 23, 2024
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  • Yahya Cholil Staquf
Photo of a woman reading a document at a military checkpoint in the Philippines before being permitted to return home after fighting between government troops and Islamic State militants.
Video
Brief Analysis
Understanding Jihadist Governance: Contending with a Diverse Problem Set
Three experts discuss the findings of a new Washington Institute compilation on jihadist governance, highlighting several of the case studies and data points explored in the book.
Sep 19, 2024
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  • Devorah Margolin
  • Matthew Bamber-Zryd
  • Aaron Y. Zelin
Pro-Palestine demonstrations in Amman, Jordan
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Hamas's Misleading Narrative and Its Impact on Jordanian National Security
In Jordan, Hamas is working to create a misleading narrative that conflates support for ending the war in Gaza and the Palestinians' right to self-determination with supporting Hamas.
Sep 12, 2024
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  • Saud Al-Sharafat
A Jordanian man casts his ballot in parliamentary elections in September 2016 - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Jordan’s Election Is a Positive Sign Amid Gaza War Tensions
Despite wartime security and economic challenges, the kingdom is holding its first election since a modernization plan was formulated in 2021.
Sep 6, 2024
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  • Ghaith al-Omari
U.S. and Algerian flags at the U.S. Embassy in Algiers - source: U.S. government
Brief Analysis
What Would Another Tebboune Victory Mean for U.S.-Algeria Relations?
The incumbent president is set to win another term, but shifting opposition politics at home and geostrategic realities abroad could raise bilateral bumps down the road.
Sep 6, 2024
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  • Sabina Henneberg
  • Souhire Medini
New Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani attends the first regular session of the Council of Ministers in Baghdad in November 2022 - source: Reuters
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Iraq’s Watergate and the Fallout for U.S. Relations
The politicized corruption of the country’s best intelligence agency has exploded into a major eavesdropping scandal directed from the prime minister’s office, and Washington should adjust bilateral intelligence sharing accordingly.
Sep 5, 2024
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  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight

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Linda and Tony Rubin Program on Arab Politics

The Washington Institute's Linda and Tony Rubin Program on Arab Politics focuses on social, political, and economic developments in the Arab world, with an emphasis on the Arab countries of the Levant.

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Featured experts

David Schenker
David Schenker
David Schenker is the Taube Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute and director of the Linda and Tony Rubin Program on Arab Politics. He is the former Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs.
Ghaith al-Omari
Ghaith al-Omari
Ghaith al-Omari is the Rosalinde and Arthur Gilbert Foundation Senior Fellow in The Washington Institute's Irwin Levy Family Program on the U.S.-Israel Strategic Relationship.
Hanin Ghaddar
Hanin Ghaddar
Hanin Ghaddar is the Friedmann Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute's Rubin Family Arab Politics Program, where she focuses on Shia politics throughout the Levant.
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