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Arab & Islamic Politics

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In-Depth Reports

Turkey's Opposition vs. the AKP: Measuring Messaging

Challengers to Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan are proliferating, with two breakaway parties drawing particular notice. In December 2019, Ahmet Davutoglu, who served under Erdogan as foreign minister and then prime minister, formed Gelecek (Future) in an attempt to resurrect a gentler version of the Justice and Development Party (AKP)

Soner Cagaptay
Reilly Barry

Washington Pushes to End the Qatar Rift

Successful diplomacy could enhance Arab normalization with Israel and boost U.S. efforts to counter Iran, but it is unclear if Riyadh wants to bargain now or wait for Joe Biden.

Simon Henderson

Articles & Testimony

Forecasting U.S.-UAE Relations Under the New Biden Administration

From addressing Iranian threats to mending rifts with Qatar and Turkey, the sound bilateral partnership on regional issues will likely thrive in the Biden era, albeit with some marginal adjustments by both governments.

David Pollock

In-Depth Reports

Iran's 2021 Presidential Vote and the Tightening of Regime Control

Joe Biden's victory in America may herald a measure of de-escalation with Iran, but the Supreme Leader is unlikely to be moved. Ayatollah Khamenei does not really distinguish between Democratic and Republican intentions—after all, he agreed to a nuclear deal with the Obama administration only to see President Trump tear

Mehdi Khalaji

Saudi Arabia Faces Summit Scrutiny

The virtual G20 meeting in Riyadh will be watched closely for insights on the kingdom’s royal politics at home and its standing abroad.

Simon Henderson

Egyptian president Sisi speaks

Cairo’s Concerns About a Biden Presidency

Egyptian leaders fear that his administration will openly confront them on human rights and enable an Islamist resurgence, but the outlook is brighter for engagement on Turkey, Israel, and other issues.

Haisam Hassanein

Violence Erupts in Western Sahara

If the long-frozen conflict descends into full-blown war, it would undermine U.S. interests in one of the few relatively stable corners of the Arab world.

Sarah Feuer

Shock Therapy Will Kill, Not Cure, Iraqi Kurdistan’s Economy

Spending cuts are necessary and overdue in the Kurdistan Region, but international players need to ameliorate the impact of politicized provisions in the new funding deficit law.

Michael Knights

How Does Indonesia View the Prospect of Normalization with Israel?

Jakarta’s domestic politics make normalization unlikely despite years of positive signals, but the United States should nevertheless urge it to consider incremental, mutually beneficial steps toward rapprochement with Jerusalem.

Michael Singh
Ehud Yaari

Articles & Testimony

How Europe Keeps Losing Turkey

The EU has repeatedly gotten its policy toward Ankara wrong, inadvertently helping Erdogan at key points during the rise of his illiberal movement while creating preventable tensions over various regional and domestic issues.

Soner Cagaptay
Raffaella Del Sarto

The Sudan Agreement: Implications of Another Arab-Israel Milestone

The latest deal shows how firm U.S. pressure, quiet contacts with Israel, and domestic political breakthroughs can help Arab governments advance normalization even in the face of popular opposition and past military conflict.

Ehud Yaari

Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamanei, gestures while speaking

What Does Iran’s Supreme Leader Expect from the Next U.S. President?

Ayatollah Khamenei is wholly focused on preserving the political system he has so painstakingly built, but trends suggest a shaky Iranian future regardless of who wins the U.S. election.

Mehdi Khalaji

Frech president Emmanuel Macron inspects the site of the Beirut port explosion

In-Depth Reports

A Paris Reset on Hezbollah? Implications for French Interests and Regional Security

In this study, counterterrorism expert Matthew Levitt explores the history and current status of Hezbollah operations against French interests, and details how a change in Paris's longstanding opposition to designating the group could bolster French efforts to stabilize Lebanon.

Matthew Levitt

Articles & Testimony

Bandar Speaks Out: The Changing Landscape in the Mideast

Palestinian leaders previously never had to acknowledge their mistakes or account for missed opportunities, preventing them from learning critical lessons and adjusting their behavior.

Dennis Ross

In-Depth Reports

Prospects for Syrian Kurdish Unity: Assessing Local and Regional Dynamics

In October 2019, the U.S. troop withdrawal and subsequent Turkish invasion of northern Syria upended Kurdish plans in the region. But a year later, the major Syrian Kurdish rivals—the Democratic Union Party (PYD) and Kurdish National Council (KNC)—are coming together after a lengthy estrangement. This past June, representatives from the

Sirwan Kajjo

Risks of the Palestinian Authority’s Outreach to Qatar and Turkey

Recent gestures, which have included reconciliation talks with Hamas, could strengthen the PA’s Gaza-based rival, further strain relations with its traditional Arab allies, and spur elections with destabilizing results.

Ghaith al-Omari

Washington Confuses Tactics with Strategy: The Perils of Shuttering the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad

In threatening the closure, the U.S. administration is undermining the reform-minded Iraqi prime minister’s efforts against Iran-backed militias and risking Baghdad’s relationship with Washington.

Dana Stroul
Bilal Wahab
Barbara A. Leaf

Arabs Taking Risks for Peace: Stories from the Frontlines of People-to-People Contact with Israelis

Courageous Arab civic actors discuss the enormous hurdles they have faced in engaging with Israelis and supporting broader social and legislative normalization.

Ismail Sayyid Ahmad
Sukina Meshekhis
Ahdeya Ahmed Al-Sayed
Mohamed Al-Hammadi
Joseph Braude

Maps & Graphics

In-Depth Reports

Protests and Regime Suppression in Post-Revolutionary Iran

Since its formation in 1979, the Islamic Republic has seen multiple cycles of unrest, from ethnic movements in the early 1980s to urban riots in the early 1990s, student protests spanning 1999-2003, the Green Movement response to the 2009 election, and the December 2017-January 2018 upheaval in smaller cities and

Saeid Golkar

Kuwait’s Precarious Mediation Role May Be Imperiled by the Emir’s Passing

The country’s six decades as regional intermediary have been undercut in recent years by younger Gulf leaders less inclined to traditional methods of conflict resolution, and Sheikh Sabah’s death may put this role at further risk.

Elana DeLozier

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