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U.S._and_Turkish_military_forces_conduct_second_joint_ground_patrol_inside_of_the_secur

The Impending Turkish Invasion: Repercussions for the SDF-Washington Relationship

A Turkish attack on northern Syria would bring new waves of internal displacement and increased humanitarian suffering, weaken the SDF and the Autonomous Administration, and erode these institutions’ the trust of the United States.

۲۵ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۲۲

Baraa Sabri

Sabereen News threat to Istanbul - cropped

Maps & Graphics

Claiming Without Claiming: Iraqi Militia Responses to Turkish Attacks

Sabereen News has been operating as the clearinghouse for coverage of "resistance" strikes on Turkish targets, nodding to specific facade groups and hinting at future attacks inside Turkey.

۲۲ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۲۲

Michael Knights
Hamdi Malik

◆ Militia Spotlight

Photo of an oil facility in Iraqi Kurdistan.

The KRG Turns Thirty: The Future of U.S.-Kurdish Relations in Iraq (Part 3)

Three experts evaluate the KRG’s oil and gas industry and discuss the growing urgency of resolving its disputes with Baghdad.

۲۸ ژوئن ۲۰۲۲

James Jeffrey
Matthew Amitrano
Bilal Wahab

◆ The KRG Turns Thirty

Turkish president Erdogan at NATO headquarters in Brussels

What Biden Faces with Erdogan at the NATO Summit

The Turkish leader has been trying to leverage Sweden and Finland’s accession to weaken international support for the YPG in Syria, but he may be content with symbolic concessions that boost his reelection chances.

۲۸ ژوئن ۲۰۲۲

Soner Cagaptay

Flags_of_Turkey_and_Sweden

NATO Membership for Sweden: Between Turkey and the Kurds

With the NATO summit approaching, Sweden is now caught between Turkey’s demands and its own complicated domestic politics.

۲۷ ژوئن ۲۰۲۲

Magnus Norell

Turkish official Hulusi Akar with Somali soldier

In-Depth Reports

Turkish Influence in Sub-Saharan Africa

Trade volume has soared and projects like the development of Sudan’s Suakin Port have drawn notice, but Ankara faces economic headwinds in its bid to keep the momentum going.

۲۳ ژوئن ۲۰۲۲

Soner Cagaptay
Spencer Cook
Amal Soukkarieh

Ahrar Sinjar drone image

Maps & Graphics

تحلیل کوتاه

احرار سنجار؛ فصائل جماعت ایزدی را به خدمت می‌گیرد

احرار سنجار یکی از نمونه‌های نگران‌کننده شبه‌نظامیان تحت حمایت ایران است که در آن از اقلیت‌های کوچک بومی برای انجام حملات راکتی فرامرزی به اقلیم کردستان عراق و شبکه‌سازی تروریستی در داخل اقلیم کردستان استفاده می‌شود.

۱۵ ژوئن ۲۰۲۲

مایکل نایتز
حمدی ملک
الکس آلمیدا
انور الزمانی

◆ Militia Spotlight

Rhetoric Meets Reality in Jawlani’s Push for Self-Sufficiency

As a key UN vote approaches, Washington should push Turkey to help promote a diverse, balanced economy in HTS-controlled northwest Syria.

۸ ژوئن ۲۰۲۲

Aaron Y. Zelin

Palestians on a Mediterranean beach in Gaza

مقاله‌ها و دیدگاه‌ها

تغییر جهت امواج در شرق مدیترانه: از توفان به آرامش؟

هر چند بدترین سناریوهای همین چند سال پیش، امروز در حالت تعلیق قرار دارند، اما بهترین سناریوها برای همکاری تحول‌آفرین هم کماکان دور از دسترس است.

دیوید پولاک

Articles & Testimony

The Impact of Russia’s Ukraine Invasion in the Middle East and North Africa

A former Pentagon advisor testifies on how the war might affect Moscow's ability to sell arms to MENA governments and project power in the region.

۱۸ مهٔ ۲۰۲۲

Grant Rumley

A Turkish Bayraktor UAV on display at an airshow - source: Reuters

Maps & Graphics

The Muqawama's Duel with Turkey

Turkish counterstrikes may have instilled caution in militia rocketeers, suggesting more attacks may come against U.S. and Kurdish targets instead.

۱۷ مهٔ ۲۰۲۲

Alex Almeida
Michael Knights

◆ Militia Spotlight

A Ghauri nuclear-capable missile on parade in Pakistan

Maps & Graphics

تحلیل کوتاه

نگرانی‌های هسته‌ای از تماس‌های جدید سعودی-پاکستان

بن‌بست در مذاکرات هسته‌ای ایران ممکن است ریاض را با حمایت پاکستان به اقدام در گسترش توان هسته‌ای‌اش برانگیزد.

۲ مهٔ ۲۰۲۲

سایمون هندرسون

A Turkish Bayraktor UAV on display at an airshow - source: Reuters

Articles & Testimony

Turkey's Lethal Weapon

From Ukraine to Syria, drones are reshaping Erdogan’s foreign policy.

۲۷ آوریل ۲۰۲۲

Soner Cagaptay
Rich Outzen

An Israeli security officer stands guard at the scene of a terrorist shooting in Tel Aviv, March 2022.

Articles & Testimony

A Badly Needed New Approach to Quelling the Violence

A U.S.-Israel attempt to compel Qatar, the Palestinian Authority, and Hamas to end terrorist attacks against Israelis could ultimately help reset dynamics, even if such a move generates a costly short-term backlash.

۲۵ آوریل ۲۰۲۲

Ehud Yaari

French-Turkish Relations: Foes to Friends?

The Ukraine war has greatly boosted their diplomatic and military cooperation, but lingering friction over Syria, Libya, and Mediterranean issues will need to be handled carefully if this rapprochement is to endure.

۲۰ آوریل ۲۰۲۲

Louis Dugit-Gros
Pierre Morcos
Soner Cagaptay

Between Maritime Law and Politics in the East Mediterranean

Given the region’s fraught history and piecemeal legal frameworks, the parties and their allies should focus more on the political, economic, and security concerns underlying their legal disputes.

۲۴ مارس ۲۰۲۲

Alexander Loengarov

Photo of Turkish and Taliban officials meeting in Ankara, October 2021.

Turkey Calls for Recognition of the Taliban’s Islamic Emirate

Ankara has taken a leading role in rehabilitating the group’s image, but many other countries have reached out as well, making eventual recognition a fait accompli.

۱۷ مارس ۲۰۲۲

Aaron Y. Zelin

Map illustrating strategies for preserving autonomy in northeast Syria.

How to Preserve the Autonomy of Northeast Syria

To offset the destabilizing measures coming from Turkey and the Assad axis, Western governments need to offer more development assistance—but in a targeted way that reassures local authorities and minimizes mismanagement.

۱۵ مارس ۲۰۲۲

Fabrice Balanche

Articles & Testimony

Can Turkey and the UAE Help Break Libya’s Deadlock?

Finding a compromise timeline for elections will be delicate, but the recent thaw in relations between Ankara and Abu Dhabi removes a significant external impediment to progress.

۱۴ مارس ۲۰۲۲

Ben Fishman

Illustration of chess pieces and the Russian and Ukrainian flags - source: Reuters

How Will the Ukraine Crisis Affect Middle East Policy?

Three experts discuss whether the war might alter Washington’s calculus on rapprochement with Turkey, regional military deployments, and wider great power competition.

۱۰ مارس ۲۰۲۲

Anna Borshchevskaya
Soner Cagaptay
Grant Rumley

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