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Brief Analysis
Israel Debates the Lebanon Maritime Deal
The imminent election and the resultant rush to strike a deal are distracting from what could be a significant diplomatic and economic milestone for both countries.
Oct 13, 2022
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David Makovsky
Articles & Testimony
Bismarck on the Bosporus
Turkey’s president faces a reinvigorated opposition at home, but he is trying to show he can still win elections while also playing Russia, the United States, and Europe against one another.
Oct 13, 2022
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Soner Cagaptay
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Insight into As-Suwayda’s Position in the Syrian Situation
As-Suwayda has been unstable since the onset of the Syrian revolution. The increasingly fractured political leadership in this majority-Druze region reflects how Syria’s ongoing conflict has warped and splintered local governance.
Oct 12, 2022
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Ishtar Al Shami
Brief Analysis
The SDF Is Caught Between Turkey and the Islamic State Again
As happened with past incursions, Erdogan’s latest invasion threats and preparatory strikes are fatally distracting the SDF from its crucial counterterrorism mission—and at a time when jihadist activities against it are on the rise.
Oct 12, 2022
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Ido Levy
Articles & Testimony
Israel Falls for Lebanon’s Treaty Bait-and-Switch
The maritime border agreement is a mixed bag, demonstrating how far Israel will go to make peace with Arab states while doing little to decrease the prospects of an eventual war with Hezbollah.
Oct 11, 2022
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David Schenker
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
The Demonstrations for Mahsa Amini: A Turning Point in Iran
Despite the Iranian regime’s efforts to suppress recent protests, they have quickly spread to every corner of the country, making this one of the most important events in Iran in more than four decades and suggesting this could be a turning point for the country's future.
Oct 7, 2022
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Ziryan Rojhelati
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Iran’s Dilemma in Managing Shiite Conflicts in Iraq
Iran has recently adopted a more hands-off approach in Iraqi politics, hoping that the internal fractures will eventually work in their favor.
Oct 6, 2022
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Firas Elias
Brief Analysis
Social Media in Iran’s Protests: A New Public Sphere?
Apps like Clubhouse and Instagram have greatly broadened the people’s ability to exchange ideas and even criticize the regime, but authorities have simultaneously subverted, coopted, and silenced these platforms at will.
Oct 6, 2022
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Mehdi Khalaji
Articles & Testimony
Ten Years After Benghazi: Getting Past Groundhog Day
Of all the conflict-riven countries in the Middle East, Libya still has the greatest potential for resolution in a way that could benefit the wider region, Europe, and the United States.
October-November 2022
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Ben Fishman
Brief Analysis
The Latest Chapter in Iran’s Hostage Diplomacy
U.S. policymakers should be careful about concluding that Tehran’s decision to relax restrictions on two detained American citizens has anything to do with the nuclear talks.
Oct 6, 2022
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Henry Rome
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Militia Disinformation and the Zainab Isam al-Khazali Shooting
"Resistance" groups launched a coordinated and intentionally misleading anti-American media campaign to ease domestic pressure caused by the unrest in Iran.
Oct 5, 2022
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Hamdi Malik
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Militia Spotlight
Brief Analysis
Will a Sense of Revenge Spur Iran to Attack Saudi Arabia?
While the regime doubles down on its domestic crackdown, it has increased its threatening rhetoric abroad as well, potentially drawing U.S. assets into a new round of military escalation reminiscent of summer 2019.
Oct 4, 2022
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Farzin Nadimi
Articles & Testimony
High Prices, War in Ukraine, a Cold Winter Ahead—and Now OPEC+ Piles On
The oil cartel’s reported plan to cut production could roil global markets, U.S.-Gulf relations, and American voter sentiment.
Oct 4, 2022
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Simon Henderson
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Iraqi Militia Group Makes Credible New Threat Against the Gulf States
The facade group in question tends to follow through on its warnings, so its latest rhetoric about using developments in Yemen as cause for new attacks should be taken seriously.
Oct 3, 2022
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Hamdi Malik
Michael Knights
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Militia Spotlight
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
A Domestic Audience for Turkish Foreign Policy
With elections in the balance, Erdoğan is playing a risky game of international normalizations in the hope that the Turkish electorate will approve of economic ties and immigrant solutions.
Sep 30, 2022
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Batu Coşkun
Gökhan Çınkara
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
The Captagon War: Smuggling on the Jordanian-Syrian Border
As drug smuggling increases across Jordan’s border with Syria, Jordanian authorities need to seek solutions in both the security and social spheres.
Sep 30, 2022
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Saud Al-Sharafat
Brief Analysis
Celebrities, the Clergy, and Succession: Wild Cards in Iran’s Protests
By targeting celebs and financially coopting the clergy, the regime has revealed a great deal about what it sees as its greatest vulnerabilities.
Sep 30, 2022
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Mehdi Khalaji
Brief Analysis
Detention Facilities in Syria, Iraq Remain Vulnerable to Islamic State Attacks
An attempted suicide operation against al-Hawl camp highlights the ongoing risks posed by indefinite detention of foreigners associated with IS.
Sep 29, 2022
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Devorah Margolin
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Iran on the Threshold of Another Revolution
The most recent wave of protests in Iran appears more unified and determined, suggesting it may be the start of something much bigger.
Sep 28, 2022
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Shukriya Bradost
Brief Analysis
Kuwait’s Election Offers Insights on Wider Gulf Politics
The vote and the events leading up to it reflect a system in near-paralysis rather than an example for neighbors to emulate.
Sep 28, 2022
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Simon Henderson
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