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Turkey

Policy Analysis on Turkey

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Flames emerge from flare stacks at Nahr Bin Umar oil field, north of Basra, Iraq - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
The Death of Oil Federalism? Implications of a New Iraqi Court Ruling
The legal decision and its political fallout are threatening some of the country’s key interests, including its aspirations toward federalism, its relations with Turkey, and its ability to attract sorely needed international investment.
Feb 18, 2022
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  • Bilal Wahab
Articles & Testimony
The Third Age of Erdogan’s Foreign Policy
Turkey has been forced to adopt a new approach abroad, presenting a valuable opportunity that the United States and Europe need to seize quickly.
Feb 17, 2022
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  • Rich Outzen
  • Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Battle for al-Sinaa Prison: The Enduring Islamic State Threat in Syria
The military response to a major prison attack exhibited the strength of the U.S.-SDF partnership, but it also highlighted ongoing counterterrorism shortcomings.
Jan 31, 2022
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  • Ido Levy
Turkish President Erdogan meets Ukrainian President Zelenskiy in Kyiv - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
The Ukraine Crisis: East Meets Mideast?
In theory, Iran, Turkey, the Gulf, and other regional players offer potential leverage of various kinds over Moscow, but closer examination suggests that most of these links are of limited utility at best.
Jan 28, 2022
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  • David Pollock
Brief Analysis
Reality Check for Israel’s Natural Gas Plans
Washington has logical reasons to step away from an undersea pipeline project in the East Mediterranean, though the decision effectively kills Israel’s improbable dream of becoming a significant gas supplier to Europe.
Jan 27, 2022
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  • Simon Henderson
Sailors aboard a Turkish Naval Forces warship - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Will Turkey Help Washington If Russia Invades Ukraine?
Fears of Russian military power may keep Ankara out of the spotlight, but its Black Sea calculations and Crimean Tatar sympathies indicate a willingness to assist behind the scenes if necessary.
Jan 26, 2022
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  • Soner Cagaptay
Turkish president Erdogan - Source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
Erdogan’s End Game: Will He Undermine Turkish Democracy to Stay in Power?
The president is very unlikely to win the next election fair and square, so he may well resort to undermining the vote, disregarding the result, or even fomenting a January 6-like insurrection.
Jan 4, 2022
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  • Soner Cagaptay
A Turkish soldier stands guard at a rally. Image source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Turkey vs. the YPG: What’s Next?
As Ankara and Moscow mull a potential exchange of Syria border incursions for Idlib concessions, Erdogan risks endangering his intertwined goals of improving Turkey’s economy and minimizing tensions with Washington.
Nov 16, 2021
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  • Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Helping Syria’s Kurds Weigh Their Options
By reassuring its Kurdish allies via temporary diplomatic, military, and economic measures, Washington can gain greater leverage over Russia and other players at acceptably low risk and cost.
Nov 15, 2021
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  • David Pollock
Brief Analysis
Turkey’s F-16 Request May Not Stave Off the Inevitable
Washington and Ankara have significant diplomatic and security incentives for considering the deal, while rejecting it outright would likely hasten Erdogan’s drift into Putin’s orbit.
Oct 28, 2021
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  • Grant Rumley
  • Soner Cagaptay
Muslim Brotherhood supporters in Egypt display the victory and Rabaa signs at a protest
Brief Analysis
The Muslim Brotherhood Sees Cairo’s Flirtation with Biden as an Opportunity
Many Brotherhood members seem eager to exploit recent U.S.-Egyptian gestures on human rights, but there is little likelihood that the Sisi government will reconcile with the fractured, unpopular Islamist group.
Oct 27, 2021
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  • Haisam Hassanein
Articles & Testimony
U.S. Policy on the Mediterranean and the Role of PMCs
Although Biden may not see Russia as his top priority, Moscow’s proxy military activities in the Mediterranean are directly aimed at diluting Washington’s leverage in the Middle East, Africa, and Europe.
Sep 10, 2021
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  • Anna Borshchevskaya
HDP protests, Turkey
Articles & Testimony
What's Happening with the HDP?
Tracking Legislators in Turkey's Liberal, Pro-Kurdish Party
Erdogan knows that a flourishing opposition could mean his political demise.
Aug 26, 2021
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  • Soner Cagaptay
  • Umut Can Fidan
  • Nibras Khudaida
Turkish National Security Council
In-Depth Reports
Deals, Drones, and National Will:
The New Era in Turkish Power Projection
Turkey has recently pushed the PKK fight from its own turf and blunted challenges in northern Syria, Azerbaijan, Libya, and the Gulf, all while strengthening its defense export sector.
Jul 9, 2021
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  • Rich Outzen
Rouhani, Putin, Erdogan
In-Depth Reports
Triangular Diplomacy:
Unpacking Russia's Syria Strategy
Moscow has repeatedly played actors off each other to secure its own interests and keep the Assad regime in power.
Jul 7, 2021
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  • Anna Borshchevskaya
  • Andrew J. Tabler
Articles & Testimony
When Humanitarian Aid Becomes a Bargaining Chip
Cross-border access into Syria has become a stress test for Putin and Biden’s nascent relationship, so what exactly will it take for their governments to reach a durable agreement?
Jul 1, 2021
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  • Jomana Qaddour
Accidental Allies cover
In-Depth Reports
Accidental Allies:
The US–Syrian Democratic Forces Partnership Against the Islamic State
To some, America's partnership with the SDF exemplified an economy-of-force effort that minimized U.S. casualties and wrested control of northeast Syria from the Islamic State. To others, it was a cautionary tale about a U.S. military hoodwinked into working with a terrorist group.
Jun 22, 2021
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  • Michael Knights
  • Wladimir van Wilgenburg
Brief Analysis
Making Libya’s Berlin Process Work
To break the political deadlock, begin the withdrawal of disruptive foreign forces, and deploy ceasefire monitors, U.S. officials will need to hold some hard conversations with the UN envoy and all of the international and local actors on the ground.
Jun 21, 2021
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  • Ben Fishman
  • Anas El Gomati
Erdogan pensive
In-Depth Reports
A Sultan in Autumn
Erdogan Faces Turkey's Uncontainable Forces
The unprecedented economic growth and personal popularity once enjoyed by the Turkish leader have given way to stagnation, a dwindling support base, and problems abroad.
Jun 6, 2021
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  • Soner Cagaptay
President Donald Trump speaks about Syria
Articles & Testimony
The Inside Story of How Trump ‘Kept the Oil’ in Syria and Lost
The ambitious plan would have seen Delta Crescent, a tiny Delaware company, try to bring peace and stability to the war-ravaged northeast, but local corruption, a lack of U.S. commitment, and other complications doomed the idea.
May 31, 2021
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  • Kenneth R. Rosen

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Turkish Research Program

Since its inception in 1995, The Washington Institute's Turkish Research Program has established itself as the most influential center in Washington for research and information on Turkey -- a predominantly Muslim, secular, and democratic U.S. ally.

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Featured experts

Soner Cagaptay
Soner Cagaptay
Soner Cagaptay is the Beyer Family fellow and director of the Turkish Research Program at The Washington Institute.
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