Turkey

Policy Analysis on Turkey

Russia’s Yes Vote on Syria Aid Will Come With a Price

Moscow’s willingness to approve another UN extension has more to do with advancing normalization between Turkey and the Assad regime than helping Syrian civilians, who will remain hostage to Russian demands if nothing is done before the next vote this summer.

Jan 11, 2023

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Anna Borshchevskaya
Andrew J. Tabler

Boys carry bread as they walk along a street in Jaramana, on the outskirts of Damascus, Syria - source: Reuters

Fikra Forum

Will the Russian Intervention in Ukraine End Humanitarian Assistance for Syrians?

Changing geopolitical dynamics and upcoming international decisions have the potential to make Syria's humanitarian crisis worse than ever.

Jan 6, 2023

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Mahmood Alhosain
Jonas Ecke

Turkish president Erdogan at NATO headquarters in Brussels

Fikra Forum

Sweden, Turkey, and the Concessions for NATO Membership

Turkey's refusal to approve Sweden's NATO membership is yet another foreign policy tool being used by Erdoğan ahead of 2023 elections.

Dec 9, 2022

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Magnus Norell

Russian President Vladimir Putin meets Chinese President Xi Jinping at a summit in Beijing - source: Reuters

Articles & Testimony

The Middle East in a Multipolar Era: Why America’s Allies Are Flirting With Russia and China

Because many states are eschewing both alignment with a single great power and nonalignment, the best U.S. response to this “omni-alignment” is creating more tailored opportunities for high-value cooperation with Washington.

Dec 7, 2022

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Michael Singh

Articles & Testimony

Saving Iraqi Sovereignty: Iran, Turkey and a Fractured Homeland

There are ways for the new prime minister to reinforce Iraq’s independence after a series of foreign attacks, but they will be complex and painful.

Nov 27, 2022

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Bilal Wahab

Palestians on a Mediterranean beach in Gaza

Brief Analysis

Changing Population Patterns Will Reshape the Middle East

Several of the region’s demographic heavyweights will be surpassed, and major shifts at the global level may affect how great powers vie for influence there as well.

Nov 22, 2022

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Patrick Clawson

Photo illustration of the flags of Sweden, NATO, Finland, and Turkey - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

Will Turkey Ratify Sweden and Finland’s NATO Accession?

Although Ankara will likely approve the Nordic expansion down the road, hurdles remain for Sweden, and Russia may play the spoiler’s role unless Washington facilitates the process.

Nov 22, 2022

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Soner Cagaptay
Michael Singh
Sude Akgundogdu

Fikra Forum

Re-evaluating Turkish Nationalism: A Bulwark Against the Religious Establishment

While the past few decades saw a dip in any political references to Turkey’s founder, opposition groups and the AKP alike have returned to Atatürk as a key political symbol of nationalism ahead of the elections.

Nov 10, 2022

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M. Bahadırhan Dinçaslan

A cargo ship carrying Ukrainian grain passes through the Bosphorus - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

MENA Countries Stand to Lose the Most If the Ukraine Grain Initiative Falters

Russia will continue using the Black Sea corridors as leverage, so Western countries and their partners should prepare alternative routes and other assistance as counter-leverage.

Nov 8, 2022

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Anna Borshchevskaya
Louis Dugit-Gros
Sabina Henneberg

Brief Analysis

The UN Resolution Against Russia’s Ukraine Annexations: How Did the Middle East Vote?

Most of the region supported the measure, with one nay vote, a pair of notable changes since the March resolution, and several strong statements in support of territorial integrity.

Oct 18, 2022

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Militias Pivot Away from U.S. Targets, Toward Kurdistan and Turkish Bases

Attack metrics prove that Iran-backed groups currently see more profit in striking "near enemies" than American forces.

Oct 17, 2022

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Eric Feely

◆ Militia Spotlight

Articles & Testimony

Bismarck on the Bosporus

Turkey’s president faces a reinvigorated opposition at home, but he is trying to show he can still win elections while also playing Russia, the United States, and Europe against one another.

Oct 13, 2022

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Soner Cagaptay

Fighters of Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), walk together near Baghouz, Deir Al Zor province - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

The SDF Is Caught Between Turkey and the Islamic State Again

As happened with past incursions, Erdogan’s latest invasion threats and preparatory strikes are fatally distracting the SDF from its crucial counterterrorism mission—and at a time when jihadist activities against it are on the rise.

Oct 12, 2022

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Ido Levy

Turkish President Erdogan at a summit with Russian President Putin in Sochi in 2021 - source: Reuters

Fikra Forum

A Domestic Audience for Turkish Foreign Policy

With elections in the balance, Erdoğan is playing a risky game of international normalizations in the hope that the Turkish electorate will approve of economic ties and immigrant solutions.

Sep 30, 2022

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Batu Coşkun
Gökhan Çınkara

Brief Analysis

How Turkey Views Russian Naval Access to the Black Sea

Despite supporting Ukraine militarily, President Erdogan has crucial political and economic reasons for preserving good ties with Moscow, so he is unlikely to take any actions in the Black Sea that are not strictly laid out in the Montreux Convention.

Sep 2, 2022

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Soner Cagaptay

Fikra Forum

The Consequences of Turkey’s Shifting Position on the Syrian Crisis

Although establishing ties between Turkey and the Syrian regime may seem like a smart move by Erdogan, the decision represents a betrayal of the Syrian people and its success is not guaranteed for the Turkish government.

Sep 2, 2022

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Salahuddin Hawa

Fikra Forum

Turkey Knocks France Out on Mosul Airport Reconstruction Project

Turkey’s involvement in the reconstruction of Mosul Airport could cause problems amidst regional tensions with France and Iran, but it is also emblematic of the growing economic ties between Turkey and Iraq.

Aug 19, 2022

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Mehmet Alaca

Fikra Forum

Arab Syrian IDPs of Tal Rifaat also Want to Go Home

The involvement of Turkish military forces in Northern Syria could allow thousands of Syrians to return to their homes after being forced out by the YPG, the SDF, and other entities for many years.

Aug 12, 2022

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Rena Netjes

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Turkey’s War in Northern Iraq: By the Numbers

Ankara is fighting a lethal and largely hidden counterinsurgency against PKK elements across the border, but the conflict’s rising profile may carry high costs for both U.S. interests and Iraqi sovereignty.

Jul 28, 2022

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Michael Knights

A Turkish Baraktar TB2 drone - source: Reuters

Articles & Testimony

Drones and Resets: The New Era of Turkish Foreign Policy

The Ukraine war has not only reaffirmed Erdogan’s remarkable political survival skills, but also highlighted the degree to which Ankara’s improved diplomatic standing is traceable to its success in exporting an innovative drone-centered military operational approach.

Summer 2022

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Soner Cagaptay
Rich Outzen

Supported by the

Turkish Research Program

Since its inception in 1995, The Washington Institute's Turkish Research Program has established itself as the most influential center in Washington for research and information on Turkey -- a predominantly Muslim, secular, and democratic U.S. ally.

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Soner Cagaptay

Soner Cagaptay is the Beyer Family Fellow and director of the Turkish Research Program at The Washington Institute.

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Turkey

Policy Analysis on Turkey

Turkish Research Program

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Turkey

Policy Analysis on Turkey

Turkish Research Program

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