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Turkey

Policy Analysis on Turkey

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Brief Analysis
Iraq-Turkey Pipeline Arbitration: Avoiding a Policy Train Wreck
Baghdad is suing Ankara for giving the Kurds independent pipeline access, but the biggest loser may be Washington’s pressure campaign on Iran.
May 8, 2019
◆
  • Michael Knights
Brief Analysis
Why Erdogan Will Win in Istanbul, and What This Means for Turkish Democracy
Despite the opposition’s resilience, the president can use any number of legal, political, or foreign policy tools to ensure his candidate wins this time around, no matter the reputational costs.
May 7, 2019
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
The Turkish Rupture Could Cause a Fissure in NATO
A dramatic rift seems unavoidable unless Ankara delays the arrival of Russian missiles and Washington provides security guarantees against Moscow and the Syrian Kurds.
Apr 16, 2019
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Erdogan Should Seize the Chance for Change in Turkey
The president seems pragmatic enough to recognize when he is beat and refocus his efforts on normalizing the severely polarized political system.
Apr 5, 2019
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
Assessing the Post–July 15 Turkish Military:
Operations Euphrates Shield and Olive Branch
After Turkey’s July 2016 failed military uprising, the leadership initiated purges and reforms aimed at ensuring the military’s future loyalty, but raising questions about the operational efficiency and effectiveness of the newly configured Turkish Armed Forces. Two subsequent cross-border operations into northern Syria provide valuable insight: Operation Euphrates Shield, lasting
Mar 26, 2019
◆
  • Metin Gurcan
Articles & Testimony
How Will Turkey’s Purchase of Russia’s S-400 Air Defense System Affect Ties with NATO?
An expert on Turkish politics expresses the view that alliance pushback may be weaker than in the past, but that the purchase could devastate U.S.-Turkish ties.
Mar 21, 2019
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Why Turkey’s Local Elections Matter
Many major jurisdictions are up for grabs, with potentially weighty foreign policy implications if Erdogan maintains his current coalition’s hardline nationalist trajectory.
Mar 20, 2019
◆
  • Murat Yetkin
  • Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
A Turkish ‘Safe Zone’ in Syria: Prospects and Policy Implications
Establishing such a zone in the northeast would give Ankara and the United States a unique opportunity to work together, provided Washington can convince its European allies to participate as well.
Mar 1, 2019
◆
  • Michael Eisenstadt
  • Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Cyprus Gas Discovery Could Be an East Mediterranean Game-Changer
The latest success will encourage more exploration in the area, but probably more regional rivalry as well.
Mar 1, 2019
◆
  • Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Exploiting East Mediterranean Gas: New Milestones, New Obstacles
Even as exploration companies make crucial advances on specific projects, broader development of the area’s resources will require the players to overcome political tensions and market hurdles.
Feb 8, 2019
◆
  • Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
Making Turkey Great Again
Given the numerous risks that lie ahead, it remains to be seen if Erdogan can deliver his country back to safety, let alone to greatness.
Feb 6, 2019
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
For Assad, Manbij Is the Key to East Syria
Reestablishing control in Manbij is the only way to build influence across the Euphrates, and now that U.S. troops are set to leave, both Russia and local Arab tribes may support this regime goal.
Feb 5, 2019
◆
  • Fabrice Balanche
Brief Analysis
Sending the Right Message in Cairo: Advice for Secretary Pompeo
All eyes will be on the secretary’s speech this week, so striking the right balance between President Trump’s domestic imperatives and the realities of regional policy is crucial.
Jan 7, 2019
◆
  • Anna Borshchevskaya
  • Soner Cagaptay
  • Simon Henderson
  • Martin Kramer
  • Matthew Levitt
  • David Pollock
  • Dennis Ross
  • Dana Stroul
  • Bilal Wahab
Brief Analysis
How the United States Can Still Keep Faith With Its Best Allies in Syria
Despite the heavy risks created by recent policy reversals, a well-managed transition can help preserve the major gains against the Islamic State while protecting America’s local partners.
Jan 3, 2019
◆
  • David Pollock
Brief Analysis
Tal Abyad: Achilles Heel of the Syrian Kurdish Belt
The district’s ethnic composition and wartime migrations make it the weakest point of the YPG defense system, and the most likely entryway for Turkish troops and their proxies.
Dec 21, 2018
◆
  • Fabrice Balanche
Brief Analysis
As Washington Prepares to Withdraw from Syria, Turkey Is Set to Invade
The combination of premature steps would further damage U.S. credibility while giving Iranian proxies and Islamic State remnants free rein in east Syria.
Dec 19, 2018
◆
  • Dana Stroul
  • Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Why the Release of Pastor Andrew Brunson Is a Good Sign for U.S.-Turkey Ties
Differences remain between Trump and Erdogan, but the two leaders are now talking again about vital issues such as Russian missile purchases, Syrian jihadists, and the Gulen movement.
Oct 18, 2018
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Saudi Journalist’s Disappearance Developing Into Diplomatic Mess
Rumors of murder squads, jet identification numbers, and other ominous details will likely exacerbate regional rivalries.
Oct 9, 2018
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  • Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Cyprus Aims to Export Gas via Egypt
A new pipeline agreement will further establish Egypt as the energy hub of the Eastern Mediterranean.
Sep 21, 2018
◆
  • Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Iran’s Missile Attack in Iraqi Kurdistan Could Backfire
The IRGC has fired a literal shot across the KRG’s bow, but the brazen violation of Baghdad’s sovereignty may ultimately benefit Tehran’s opponents.
Sep 11, 2018
◆
  • Bilal Wahab

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