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Military & Security

Policy Analysis on Military & Security

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Brief Analysis
Round One of Idlib Campaign May Target Turkish-Backed Rebels
If Assad and his allies stick with their past strategy, the initial offensive will likely be limited, though it will still spur massive refugee flows and a serious breach between Turkey and Russia.
Sep 11, 2018
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  • Fabrice Balanche
Articles & Testimony
The Houthi War Machine: From Guerrilla War to State Capture
The Houthis are more than capable of becoming a ‘southern Hezbollah’ on the Red Sea, a threat that continues to drive the Gulf coalition’s coastal campaign.
Sep 10, 2018
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  • Michael Knights
Brief Analysis
IRGC Navy Leadership Change May Not Signal Imminent Behavior Change
Despite the appointment of a radical anti-American commander, Iran’s naval forces are unlikely to resume frequent provocations without a strategic shift at the very top of the regime.
Sep 5, 2018
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  • Farzin Nadimi
Articles & Testimony
Afghanistan Central to Pompeo’s Meeting with Pakistani PM
President Trump is likely expecting some progress to emerge from this week’s diplomacy, but ongoing concerns with Islamabad’s stances on terrorism, Iran, and other issues mean he shouldn’t hold his breath.
Sep 4, 2018
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  • Simon Henderson
A man manipulates cables on a bank of internet data servers - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
The Rise of the Cyber-Mercenaries
What happens when private Middle Eastern firms have cyberweapons as powerful as those owned by governments?
Sep 1, 2018
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  • Neri Zilber
Brief Analysis
Taking It Slow at Jordan’s Nasib Border Crossing with Syria
Besides raising security concerns, rushing to reopen the crossing would yield far fewer economic benefits than implementing recommended IMF reforms.
Aug 30, 2018
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  • Ben Fishman
Brief Analysis
Responding to Iran's New Weapons and Naval Drills in the Gulf
Renewed naval exercises, missile tests, and other developments point to a broadening threat, but their muted nature indicates that Tehran is trying to avoid popular backlash at home.
Aug 21, 2018
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  • Farzin Nadimi
Articles & Testimony
The Great Middle Eastern War of 2019
Far from simply replaying the 2006 Lebanon war, the next conflict on Israel’s northern frontier will likely involve many more actors on multiple fronts, raising unprecedented challenges for escalation management.
Aug 20, 2018
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  • Nadav Ben Hour
  • Michael Eisenstadt
A man manipulates cables on a bank of internet data servers - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Iran's Passive Defense Organization: Another Target for Sanctions
Despite its nominal defense role, the NPDO has helped the regime repress citizens online, a function that Washington should counter with sanctions.
Aug 16, 2018
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  • Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Setting Limits on the Saudi Air Campaign in Yemen
The United States can greatly reduce civilian deaths by asking the Saudis to cease non-battlefield airstrikes in return for greater U.S. support on defensive arrangements.
Aug 16, 2018
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  • Michael Knights
Brief Analysis
Women, Minorities, and Military Aid to Egypt
As the next deadline for FMF disbursement approaches, the administration should remember that U.S. law requires it to consider Cairo’s recent track record on human rights.
Aug 9, 2018
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  • Amy Austin Holmes
Brief Analysis
Curbing Houthi Attacks on Civilian Ships in the Bab al-Mandab
The latest tanker attack by Iranian-backed rebels underlines the need to restore the entire Red Sea coast to Yemen’s internationally recognized government.
Jul 27, 2018
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  • Michael Knights
  • Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Managing Escalation in Gaza (Part 2): Breaking the Dynamic
Ending the cycle of violence will require not only tactical, strategic, and economic solutions, but also a host of ‘middle layer’ steps, from reducing military friction and establishing reliable channels of communication between the sides, to controlling the actions of other Gaza militant groups.
Jul 27, 2018
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  • Nadav Ben Hour
Brief Analysis
Managing Escalation in Gaza (Part 1): Lessons from Operation Protective Edge
The 2014 conflict showed how escalatory dynamics can quickly lead two adversaries into full-blown fighting even when neither side actually wants a war.
Jul 26, 2018
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  • Nadav Ben Hour
Articles & Testimony
Military Is Fourth Party Shaping Pakistan’s Elections, and Future
Foreign policy, defense policy, and the lion’s share of the national budget remain in the army’s hands, giving it major sway over politics.
Jul 25, 2018
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  • Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Iran Is at a Strategic Crossroads Again
As the regime’s strategy for countering the Trump administration continues to falter, will its traditional two-step of provocation and restraint give way to wider escalation?
Jul 25, 2018
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  • Omer Carmi
Brief Analysis
Putin’s Golan Comments: Implications for Israeli Security
Moscow has seemingly reaffirmed Israel’s right to keep Iranian forces away from the Golan frontier, but it is unclear whether Assad’s southern offensive will actually help or hinder that goal in the long term.
Jul 19, 2018
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  • David Makovsky
Brief Analysis
Iran After the JCPOA Withdrawal (Part 2): Shaping Tehran’s Response
Tehran will likely resort to measured countermoves in the nuclear domain at first, but successful U.S. pressure could spur it to challenge JCPOA limits, take action in non-nuclear domains, or push back against U.S. and allied forces.
Jul 17, 2018
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  • Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
Iran After the JCPOA Withdrawal (Part 1): Lessons from Past Pressure Campaigns
Tehran has generally responded to pressure by issuing threats, ramping up its nuclear activities, accepting temporary limits, and, when the heat is turned up, launching cyber, military, and terrorist operations.
Jul 16, 2018
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  • Michael Eisenstadt
Trump in a Meeting with Putin
Video
Getting Syria Right at the Trump-Putin Summit
Keeping U.S. troops in place is critical to our national security, but American interests don't require the large-scale, long-term ground force that many fear.
Jul 13, 2018
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  • James Jeffrey
  • Barbara A. Leaf
  • Dennis Ross

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Supported by the

Military and Security Studies Program

The Washington Institute's Military and Security Studies Program has established itself as an unrivaled source of reliable, incisive, and forward-looking analysis concerning several of the most critical national-security challenges facing the United States today: The U.S. military role in the Middle East, Iran's nuclear program and its proxy armies, the ongoing conflict is in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen, the regional proliferation of missiles and weapons of mass destruction, the security dimensions of the Arab-Israeli conflict, and many other security issues on the frontline of the U.S. policymaking agenda.

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Featured experts

Michael Eisenstadt
Michael Eisenstadt
Michael Eisenstadt is the Kahn Senior Fellow and director of The Washington Institute's Military and Security Studies Program.
Michael Knights
Michael Knights
Michael Knights is the Jill and Jay Bernstein Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute and cofounder of the Militia Spotlight platform, which offers in-depth analysis of developments related to Iran-backed militias.
Grant Rumley
Grant Rumley
Grant Rumley is the Meisel-Goldberger Senior Fellow and Director of the Diane and Guilford Glazer Foundation Program on Great Power Competition and the Middle East at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
Elizabeth Dent - source: The Washington Institute
Elizabeth Dent
Elizabeth Dent is the Nathan and Esther K. Wagner Senior Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, where she focuses on U.S. foreign and defense policy toward the Gulf states, Iraq, and Syria.
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