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Military & Security

Policy Analysis on Military & Security

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Brief Analysis
UN Forces in Lebanon Losing Ground in a Fast-Deteriorating Security Situation
Despite the troubling trends and escalatory incidents described in the latest UN report, the Security Council seems intent on maintaining a failed policy instead of taking urgent action to curb the growing threat of war.
Aug 5, 2022
◆
  • Assaf Orion
SCF protests
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Khazali Isolated Over International Zone Protests
The militia leader is being constrained by other members of the Iran-dominated Shia Coordination Framework regarding how to respond to Sadrist protests.
Aug 3, 2022
◆
  • Hamdi Malik
  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight
Screen capture of the FBI Most Wanted Terrorist poster for Ayman al-Zawahiri, updated following Zawahiri's killing in Afghanistan by American forces. Source: FBI
Brief Analysis
What Zawahiri’s Death Means for al-Qaeda and Its Branches
Despite the potent symbolic benefits of taking out the infamous terrorist ideologue, his death is unlikely to affect the organization’s daily operations, which are increasingly being driven by dangerous affiliates in Africa.
Aug 2, 2022
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  • Matthew Levitt
  • Aaron Y. Zelin
Photo of a Shahed drone in an Iranian military parade near imagery of Supreme Leader Khamenei..
Brief Analysis
Iranian Drones to Russia: Capabilities and Limitations
Besides signaling that Iran has shifted to active military support for Russia’s war in Ukraine, the prospective transfer gives Moscow a stopgap option until its own advanced drones are ready for service.
Aug 1, 2022
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  • Farzin Nadimi
Ahrar al-Iraq 2
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Profile: Liwa Ahrar al-Iraq
This facade group is used to brand militia rocket and drone attacks on Turkish targets in Iraq.
Jul 29, 2022
◆
  • Hamdi Malik
  • Michael Knights
  • Eric Feely
◆ Militia Spotlight: Profiles
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Turkey’s War in Northern Iraq: By the Numbers
Ankara is fighting a lethal and largely hidden counterinsurgency against PKK elements across the border, but the conflict’s rising profile may carry high costs for both U.S. interests and Iraqi sovereignty.
Jul 28, 2022
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  • Michael Knights
President Joe Biden greets Saudi King Salman in Jeddah in July 2022 - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
The True Promise of Joe Biden’s Middle East Trip
It is no exaggeration to say that the visit represents a transformation of Washington’s regional approach—including a rethink of the “pivot.”
Jul 27, 2022
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  • Dennis Ross
  • James Jeffrey
A Turkish Baraktar TB2 drone - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
Drones and Resets: The New Era of Turkish Foreign Policy
The Ukraine war has not only reaffirmed Erdogan’s remarkable political survival skills, but also highlighted the degree to which Ankara’s improved diplomatic standing is traceable to its success in exporting an innovative drone-centered military operational approach.
Summer 2022
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  • Soner Cagaptay
  • Rich Outzen
U.S._and_Turkish_military_forces_conduct_second_joint_ground_patrol_inside_of_the_secur
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
The Impending Turkish Invasion: Repercussions for the SDF-Washington Relationship
A Turkish attack on northern Syria would bring new waves of internal displacement and increased humanitarian suffering, weaken the SDF and the Autonomous Administration, and erode these institutions’ the trust of the United States.
Jul 25, 2022
◆
  • Baraa Sabri
Sabereen News threat to Istanbul - cropped
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Claiming Without Claiming: Iraqi Militia Responses to Turkish Attacks
Sabereen News has been operating as the clearinghouse for coverage of "resistance" strikes on Turkish targets, nodding to specific facade groups and hinting at future attacks inside Turkey.
Jul 22, 2022
◆
  • Michael Knights
  • Hamdi Malik
◆ Militia Spotlight
Photo of Chinese and Emirati leaders walking.
Brief Analysis
How to Respond to China’s Growing Influence in the Gulf
Beijing’s use of intertwined civil and military tools in the Gulf mirrors its activity closer to home, but the West can readily counter this influence by capitalizing on the region’s desire for diversified partnerships.
Jul 21, 2022
◆
  • Louis Dugit-Gros
Turkish President Erdogan at a summit with Russian President Putin in Sochi in 2021 - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Will the Putin-Erdogan-Raisi Summit Spark a Turkish Incursion into Syria?
Moscow and Tehran may well assent to another cross-border operation, but Turkey’s choice of targets will depend on multiple U.S., Russian, and Iranian interests.
Jul 18, 2022
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
  • Andrew J. Tabler
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
How the Autonomous Administration Leadership and Civilians Will View a Turkish Incursion into Northeast Syria
With the threat of a Turkish incursion into Northeast Syria, the SDF weighs their options while the area’s civilians express their frustrations and concerns about all parties involved.
Jul 18, 2022
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  • Ishtar Al Shami
Brief Analysis
Prospects for an Iranian “July Surprise” During Biden’s Gulf Trip
Tehran may see the president’s attendance at the GCC+3 summit as a tempting opportunity to scuttle a U.S.-Gulf reset, perhaps by using a cyber or military provocation to humiliate the hosts and demonstrate America’s inability to protect them.
Jul 11, 2022
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  • Michael Eisenstadt
Satellite map of wider Rea Sea with country names
Brief Analysis
Getting to an Israeli-Saudi Deal on Tiran and Sanafir
Efforts to reach an agreement during President Biden’s visit are laudable, but the administration must take care to ensure that any deal with Riyadh preserves the crucial regional security arrangements enshrined in the Egypt-Israel peace treaty.
Jul 7, 2022
◆
  • David Schenker
Photo showing 1983 terrorist attack at U.S. Marine barracks in Beirut, Lebanon.
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Don’t Look Down: The Struggle Over Lebanon’s Airspace
To avoid past mistakes and counter the most potent threat on its borders, Israel requires an accurate intelligence picture in Lebanon, but Iran and Hezbollah risk destabilizing the situation by chipping away at the IDF’s air superiority.
Jul 7, 2022
◆
  • Assaf Orion
An Iranian soldier wearing an IRGC uniform salutes in front of an Iranin flag - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
The United States Needs a Better Strategy to Deter Iran
A “more for more” agreement might be possible, but only if Iranian leaders are genuinely afraid of what they could lose without one.
Jul 6, 2022
◆
  • Dennis Ross
Middle East aerial map, binoculars (Hebrew)
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
Countering Iran's Regional Strategy (Hebrew)
A Long-Term, Comprehensive Approach
A Hebrew version of the IDF major general's strategy paper, co-published by The Washington Institute and the Institute for Policy and Strategy at Israel's Reichman University.
Jul 5, 2022
◆
  • Eyal Zamir
Articles & Testimony
Israel Hoping for Shift in US Iran Policy from Diplomacy to Deterrence
A veteran Israeli security and intelligence official explains why the Biden administration must reinvigorate oil sanctions and demonstrate a commitment to act militarily.
Jun 30, 2022
◆
  • Zohar Palti
Flags_of_Turkey_and_Sweden
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
NATO Membership for Sweden: Between Turkey and the Kurds
With the NATO summit approaching, Sweden is now caught between Turkey’s demands and its own complicated domestic politics.
Jun 27, 2022
◆
  • Magnus Norell

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Supported by the

Military and Security Studies Program

The Washington Institute's Military and Security Studies Program has established itself as an unrivaled source of reliable, incisive, and forward-looking analysis concerning several of the most critical national-security challenges facing the United States today: The U.S. military role in the Middle East, Iran's nuclear program and its proxy armies, the ongoing conflict is in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen, the regional proliferation of missiles and weapons of mass destruction, the security dimensions of the Arab-Israeli conflict, and many other security issues on the frontline of the U.S. policymaking agenda.

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Featured experts

Michael Eisenstadt
Michael Eisenstadt
Michael Eisenstadt is the Kahn Senior Fellow and director of The Washington Institute's Military and Security Studies Program.
Michael Knights
Michael Knights
Michael Knights is the Jill and Jay Bernstein Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute and cofounder of the Militia Spotlight platform, which offers in-depth analysis of developments related to Iran-backed militias.
Grant Rumley
Grant Rumley
Grant Rumley is the Meisel-Goldberger Senior Fellow and Director of the Diane and Guilford Glazer Foundation Program on Great Power Competition and the Middle East at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
Elizabeth Dent - source: The Washington Institute
Elizabeth Dent
Elizabeth Dent is a Senior Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, where she focuses on U.S. foreign and defense policy toward the Gulf states, Iraq, and Syria.
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