Iraq

The Coordination Framework is poised to yet again change Iraq's electoral law, continuing a history of such changes that have destabilized and delegitimized the political system.

Now that Iraqi PMF groups can deploy to Syria with Baghdad's formal authorization, many cross-border militant activities may accelerate under the cover of earthquake relief.

U.S. pressure on Iraq to prevent dollar smuggling and dinar laundering can protect Iraq’s sovereignty and weaken Iran. But if executed without deliberation, this pressure could allow Russia and China to enhance their positions in the Middle East.

Baghdad’s legal wins won’t mean much if it mishandles the political end, angers Turkey, and further damages the country’s reputation as a reliable oil partner.

Although it is still too early to write the prime minister off as an Iranian lackey, he is on a familiar trajectory for Iraqi governments: doing the minimum necessary to prevent deterioration with Washington while satisfying the voracious demands of his Iran-backed partners.

With probable IRGC-QF acquiescence, a militia facade group struck U.S. targets in Syria to register its defiance against a possible extension of the U.S. presence in Iraq.

Asaib Ahl al-Haq is signaling pragmatism, while Kataib Hezbollah is contorting its arguments to allow it to play along, albeit without explicitly accepting a U.S. military presence.

Pro-militia parliamentarians and journalists have become increasingly open about what they expect the Sudani government's role to be: a cover for the muqawama.

As divisions between the PUK and KDP grow, the Kurdistan region stands to lose its economic and political stability.