Iran

Policy Analysis on Iran

Esmail Qaani with a Fatimiyoun soldier in Syria

Explaining Apparent Muqawama De-Escalation Since January 28

Since three Americans were killed, the self-styled "resistance" has been almost inactive except for a spate of fake, foiled, and disavowed attacks, pointing to an order from Iran to calm things down.

Feb 7, 2024

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Michael Knights

◆ Militia Spotlight

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Abu Baqr al-Saeedi: Kataib Hezbollah Terrorist, Serving PMF Official

The Kataib Hezbollah leader killed on February 7 in Baghdad was (until now) a living nexus of Kataib Hezbollah, the Popular Mobilization Forces, and the facade group Alwiyat al-Waad al-Haq.

Feb 7, 2024

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Michael Knights
Hamdi Malik

◆ Militia Spotlight

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Profile: Liwa al-Tafuf (13th PMF Brigade)

The brigade belongs to the state-funded Popular Mobilization Forces and is a core member of Kataib Hezbollah’s cluster of militias that facilitate anti-U.S. attacks in Iraq’s Anbar province, eastern Syria, and Jordan.

Feb 3, 2024

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Michael Knights

◆ Militia Spotlight: Profiles

Articles & Testimony

Iran’s Militant Empire in the Middle East

The more the Islamic Republic and its proxy groups escalate with the United States and Israel, the greater the risks for a misstep.

Feb 2, 2024

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Andrew J. Tabler

A masked Hamas fighter brandishes a rifle in Gaza - source: Reuters

Articles & Testimony

The Only Way to Stop Hamas Is to Stop Iran from Rebuilding It

Tehran may simply revive the group or replace it with another terrorist proxy, so Washington and its partners will need to disrupt the flow of Iranian arms and informal financial support to extremist elements in the West Bank and Gaza.

Jan 31, 2024

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Michael Singh
Matthew Levitt

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Kataib Hezbollah Secretary-General Tries to Forestall U.S. Strikes

Abu Hussein has unveiled a dramatic gambit to sidestep Washington's threatened response to the killing of three U.S. soldiers.

Jan 30, 2024

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Michael Knights
Hamdi Malik

◆ Militia Spotlight

A sign and mural in Tehran promote the Fatteh missile and threaten Israel with the slogan "400 Seconds to Tel Aviv" - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

Tehran Makes Gains, But Concerns Persist About Regime Vulnerability

The regime has been able to drive economic growth, stifle mass protests, and expand its infiltration of neighboring countries, but lingering existential concerns could spur it toward even bolder courses of action—including potential nuclear breakout.

Jan 30, 2024

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Patrick Clawson

Satellite view of the U.S. military outpost known as Tower 22, in Rukban, Rwaished District, Jordan October 12, 2023 in this handout image. Source - Planet Labs PBC/via Reuters

Articles & Testimony

Deadly Attack on US Troops in Jordan Marks Major Escalation

Biden now has a hard choice to make: push Israel into a Gaza ceasefire or risk sustained Iran-backed escalation in the region.

Jan 29, 2024

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Andrew J. Tabler

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Profile: Hashemite Tribes Regiment

With support from Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, this regiment aims to create a more cohesive force capable of opposing the U.S.-backed SDF on the eastern banks of Syria's Euphrates River.

Jan 26, 2024

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Kyle Robertson
Abdullah Hayek

◆ Militia Spotlight: Profiles

Fikra Forum

How Iran-Backed Groups Control the Arabic Language Sphere on X

Until Twitter’s moderation policies are strictly enforced and moderation loopholes addressed, coordinated efforts will continue to target independent anti-Hezbollah and anti-Hamas voices on X/Twitter while effectively sharing their own messaging, thus ensuring that in the Middle East, Iran-backed actors maintain their grip on the site.

Jan 26, 2024

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Samara Azzi

Articles & Testimony

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Deployed in Yemen

Tehran has previously been able to conduct a “hidden-hand operation” via the Houthis at a very low cost, but that price may now be set to rise if allied counter-strikes continue.

Jan 15, 2024

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Jay Solomon

Ships of the US Navy's Fifth Fleet on exercise in the Persian Gulf

Articles & Testimony

Will the U.S.-British Strikes Stop the Houthi Attacks on Red Sea Shipping?

The effectiveness of the joint operation is not year clear, but either way it almost certainly wasn’t the concluding episode in Iran’s long-running game of Gulf proxy warfare.

Jan 12, 2024

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Simon Henderson

A man carries Iranian and Palestinian flags at a pro-Hamas rally in Tehran in October 2023 - source: Reuters

Articles & Testimony

The “Axis of Resistance” Strategy in the Israel-Hamas War

Tehran has faced few consequences for the wartime actions of its proxies, so the United States and its allies should step up their sanctions and gray-zone operations against the regime.

Jan 9, 2024

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Ido Levy

Photo showing flame and smoke rising over Lebanon's border with Israel.

Articles & Testimony

The World Prepares for Gaza War Escalation

The players have climbed another rung on the escalatory ladder in Iraq, Lebanon, and the Red Sea, exacerbating worries about a wider regional conflict and more serious economic effects.

Jan 7, 2024

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David Schenker

Iranian military leaders inspect drones.

Brief Analysis

Terrorist Bombings in Iran: Implications and Potential Responses

Although an Islamic State branch claimed the deadly blasts near a restive border zone, Tehran was quick to blame Israel and the United States, promising “severe retaliation” akin to what followed Qasem Soleimani’s death in 2020.

Jan 5, 2024

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Farzin Nadimi

Quds-2 cruise missile in Babil, Jan 3. 2024

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Iranian-Made Quds-2 Cruise Missile Photographed in Iraq

Recently used in Houthi attacks from Yemen, this missile family could give Iraqi militias the capacity to target sites in Israel if they choose to escalate their campaign of solidarity with Hamas.

Jan 5, 2024

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Alex Almeida
Michael Knights

◆ Militia Spotlight

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Who Are Nujaba and Why Did the U.S. Just Strike Them?

The group's cadres are the most reckless of Iran's terrorist proxies in Iraq and have been the proximate cause of almost all recent U.S. strikes.

Jan 4, 2024

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Michael Knights

◆ Militia Spotlight

Brief Analysis

Iran Increases Output of Near Bomb-Grade Nuclear Material

The IAEA’s new uranium revelations are amplifying concerns about a potential multifront war between Israel and Iran.

Dec 27, 2023

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Simon Henderson

Articles & Testimony

Iraq’s New Regime Change: How Tehran-Backed Terrorist Organizations and Militias Captured the Iraqi State

A comprehensive study of the various institutional, financial, and military levers that have enabled Iran’s “resistance” camp to take over another country even under the international community’s watchful eye.

Dec 2023

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Michael Knights
Hamdi Malik
Crispin Smith

Brief Analysis

Key Takeaways from the Latest Country Reports on Terrorism

In its annual rundown of counterterrorism challenges and achievements, the State Department focused on jihadist exploitation of undergoverned spaces, Iran’s continued sponsorship of regional terrorist groups, and the threats posed by violent extremism.

Dec 20, 2023

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Camille Jablonski
Delaney Soliday
Ilana Winter

Supported by the

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

Today, the Islamic Republic of Iran poses the most serious and urgent set of security challenges to the United States and its allies in the greater Middle East. Since the Khomeini revolution in 1979, Iran has sought to export its radical ideology through the use of terrorism, subversion, and support to ideological fellow-travelers throughout the Muslim world.

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Featured experts

Farzin Nadimi

Farzin Nadimi, a Senior Fellow with The Washington Institute, is a Washington-based analyst specializing in the security and defense affairs of Iran and the Persian Gulf region.

Patrick Clawson

Patrick Clawson is the Morningstar Senior Fellow and Research Counselor at The Washington Institute.

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Policy Analysis on Iran

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