Iran

Policy Analysis on Iran

Iran’s Next Budget Assumes No Nuclear Deal

The government seems to believe the economy will grow significantly even without sanctions relief or increased oil revenue.

Dec 14, 2021

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Patrick Clawson

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Militia Playground: Kinetic Operations Refocus on East Syria

Iran-backed groups seem to be directing their more dangerous attacks against coalition forces in Syria, not Iraq, and the trend could accelerate in early 2022.

Dec 14, 2021

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Crispin Smith
Hamdi Malik

◆ Militia Spotlight

Brief Analysis

Iran’s Ballistic Missile Arsenal Is Still Growing in Size, Reach, and Accuracy

Tehran has doubled down on the strategic importance of missile systems that can threaten U.S. forces and allies, even as its defensive justifications for such an arsenal ring more hollow than ever.

Dec 13, 2021

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Farzin Nadimi

Brief Analysis

Gulf Arab Summit Could Be Overshadowed by Israel-UAE Meeting

Normalization with Israel will be the elephant in the room at the Riyadh summit, though Iran diplomacy and persistent internal rifts bear close watching as well.

Dec 13, 2021

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Simon Henderson
Elana DeLozier

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

The Militia Assassination Surge (Part 2): December Attacks

Desperate militias are now killing Shia civilians in mass-casualty bombings as they try to assassinate Iraqi investigators and intelligence personnel.

Dec 10, 2021

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Michael Knights
Hamdi Malik
Crispin Smith

◆ Militia Spotlight

Articles & Testimony

Iran’s Nukes: This Time the Wolf Is Here

Given the regime’s considerable technical progress, even a good deal would only buy time rather than resolving the long-term nuclear threat.

Dec 10, 2021

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David Pollock

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Akram Kaabi's Revealing Speech

Kaabi has long been Iran's chosen man in the self-styled Iraqi "resistance," and his latest remarks seemed like an attempt to seize control of militia public messaging.

Dec 9, 2021

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Crispin Smith
Michael Knights

◆ Militia Spotlight

Articles & Testimony

Lebanon Stands at a Crossroad Between a Painful Revival and a Complete Submission to Iran

The country’s ongoing crises are closely intertwined with Hezbollah’s internal challenges, creating real potential for change if the West stands firmly behind fair elections, judicial accountability, and targeted pressure.

Dec 7, 2021

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Hanin Ghaddar

US Army soldiers fire artillery in Syria

Brief Analysis

The Future of al-Tanf Garrison in Syria

The remote U.S. base remains a relatively low-cost, high-impact tool for preventing an Islamic State resurgence, disrupting hostile Iranian activity, and exerting leverage over Syria’s long-term outlook.

Dec 6, 2021

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Grant Rumley
David Schenker

Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei delivers public remarks.

Articles & Testimony

Tehran Won’t Tolerate a Reset with Washington—But Will Take a Deal

As the previous nuclear agreement showed, U.S. officials don’t need to change the regime’s mind about America’s supposedly nefarious intentions in order to cut a deal.

Dec 6, 2021

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Amir Toumaj

Articles & Testimony

Why Israel (Sort of) Misses the Iran Deal

Given the nuclear program’s advancement under the U.S. maximum pressure policy, a raft of Israeli officials now say the JCPOA was better than nothing—but rejoining it will be difficult.

Dec 6, 2021

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Neri Zilber

Brief Analysis

A New Chance at Kingmaking for Iraqi Kurds

With militias on the back foot, the United States should lean on Kurdish and Iraqi leaders to find unity of purpose in confronting the destabilizing actions of pro-Iran groups.

Dec 1, 2021

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Bilal Wahab

Video

Brief Analysis

How Tehran Views Washington

Researchers discuss Iran’s mindset toward the Biden administration and the country’s prospects for internal change as nuclear talks resume in Vienna.

Dec 1, 2021

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Amir Toumaj
Sanam Vakil

Iranian and international negotiators participate in nuclear talks in Vienna, 2021.

Brief Analysis

Reading Through Iran’s Nuclear Demands

Tehran has maintained its stringent line of insisting that Washington lift all sanctions, verify their removal, and provide future guarantees before it will lift a finger on resuming compliance with the JCPOA.

Nov 24, 2021

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Omer Carmi

Brief Analysis

A Close Encounter of the Propaganda Kind in the Gulf

Despite more structured international maritime security measures, a recent encounter between Iranian and U.S. naval forces reiterated the potential for miscalculation, especially under a more assertive government in Tehran.

Nov 22, 2021

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Farzin Nadimi

Ardeshir Zahedi, then Iran's ambassador to the United States, with Robert F. Kennedy and Lyndon B. Johnson in Washington, DC.

Articles & Testimony

Ardeshir Zahedi: Legend and Lesson

The career of Iran's last pre-revolution ambassador to the United States offers both an example and a warning to American policymakers and diplomats today.

Nov 19, 2021

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Martin Kramer

Fake image of MC-12W Liberty over Baghdad concurrent with Nov 7 attack

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Militia Technical Disinformation and the Nov. 7 Drone Attack

To deflect responsibility for the assassination attempt on Iraq’s prime minister, self-styled "resistance" groups have assembled a dodgy dossier of convincing-looking disinformation.

Nov 17, 2021

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Anwar al-Zamani
Michael Knights

◆ Militia Spotlight

Iranian woman drummer with bandmate at cafe

In-Depth Reports

Iranian Perceptions of the U.S. Soft Power Threat

Fearing a Western-inspired overthrow, Tehran has intensified enforcement of morality laws, purged professors from universities, and poured billions of dollars into the creation of a separate national intranet.

Nov 14, 2021

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Amir Toumaj

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Sabereen News Criticizes Iran for Lack of Support

Elements of Asaib Ahl al-Haq and Kataib Hezbollah are seemingly trying to extract domestic and Iranian support for more forceful pushback against their recent political isolation.

Nov 13, 2021

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Hamdi Malik
Crispin Smith
Michael Knights

◆ Militia Spotlight

Quadcopters in Syria and Iraq, 2019-2021

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Muqawama Meltdown, Part 2: Drone Attack on the Prime Minister

Militias followed up Qais al-Khazali's threats against Kadhimi by attacking his residence, shattering the narrative of victimhood they had been building through protests.

Nov 7, 2021

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Crispin Smith
Michael Knights
Hamdi Malik

◆ Militia Spotlight

Supported by the

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

Today, the Islamic Republic of Iran poses the most serious and urgent set of security challenges to the United States and its allies in the greater Middle East. Since the Khomeini revolution in 1979, Iran has sought to export its radical ideology through the use of terrorism, subversion, and support to ideological fellow-travelers throughout the Muslim world.

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Featured experts

Farzin Nadimi

Farzin Nadimi, a Senior Fellow with The Washington Institute, is a Washington-based analyst specializing in the security and defense affairs of Iran and the Persian Gulf region.

Patrick Clawson

Patrick Clawson is the Morningstar Senior Fellow and Research Counselor at The Washington Institute.

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Policy Analysis on Iran

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

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Policy Analysis on Iran

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

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