Iran

Policy Analysis on Iran

Khazali Isolated Over International Zone Protests

The militia leader is being constrained by other members of the Iran-dominated Shia Coordination Framework regarding how to respond to Sadrist protests.

Aug 3, 2022

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Hamdi Malik
Michael Knights

◆ Militia Spotlight

Photo of a Shahed drone in an Iranian military parade near imagery of Supreme Leader Khamenei..

Brief Analysis

Iranian Drones to Russia: Capabilities and Limitations

Besides signaling that Iran has shifted to active military support for Russia’s war in Ukraine, the prospective transfer gives Moscow a stopgap option until its own advanced drones are ready for service.

Aug 1, 2022

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Farzin Nadimi

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Profile: Liwa Ahrar al-Iraq

This facade group is used to brand militia rocket and drone attacks on Turkish targets in Iraq.

Jul 29, 2022

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Hamdi Malik
Michael Knights
Eric Feely

◆ Militia Spotlight: Profiles

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Turkey’s War in Northern Iraq: By the Numbers

Ankara is fighting a lethal and largely hidden counterinsurgency against PKK elements across the border, but the conflict’s rising profile may carry high costs for both U.S. interests and Iraqi sovereignty.

Jul 28, 2022

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Michael Knights

Russian President Putin and Iranian President Raisi meet in Tehran in 2022 - source: Reuters

Articles & Testimony

Russia and Iran Keep Growing Closer

Given their proven capacity for jointly disrupting Western imperatives in the Middle East, both countries should increasingly be treated as part of the same strategic set.

Jul 26, 2022

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Anna Borshchevskaya

Sabereen News threat to Istanbul - cropped

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Claiming Without Claiming: Iraqi Militia Responses to Turkish Attacks

Sabereen News has been operating as the clearinghouse for coverage of "resistance" strikes on Turkish targets, nodding to specific facade groups and hinting at future attacks inside Turkey.

Jul 22, 2022

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Michael Knights
Hamdi Malik

◆ Militia Spotlight

Turkish President Erdogan at a summit with Russian President Putin in Sochi in 2021 - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

Will the Putin-Erdogan-Raisi Summit Spark a Turkish Incursion into Syria?

Moscow and Tehran may well assent to another cross-border operation, but Turkey’s choice of targets will depend on multiple U.S., Russian, and Iranian interests.

Jul 18, 2022

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Soner Cagaptay
Andrew J. Tabler

President Joe Biden meets Palestinian Authority President Abbas in July 2022

Articles & Testimony

From Arabs and Israelis, Biden Hears Very Different “New” Middle Easts

The Gulf capitals and Jerusalem may not agree entirely on what “regional security cooperation” means or what an anti-Iran alliance should look like, but opportunities for other types of cooperation abound.

Jul 13, 2022

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David Makovsky

Brief Analysis

Prospects for an Iranian “July Surprise” During Biden’s Gulf Trip

Tehran may see the president’s attendance at the GCC+3 summit as a tempting opportunity to scuttle a U.S.-Gulf reset, perhaps by using a cyber or military provocation to humiliate the hosts and demonstrate America’s inability to protect them.

Jul 11, 2022

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Michael Eisenstadt

Israel's Foreign Minister Yair Lapid in the Knesset chamber in Jerusalem on June 30, 2022 - Source: Reuters

Articles & Testimony

What Biden and Lapid Have in Common

Their political temperaments and policy priorities are a good match, but this chemistry does not guarantee progress on Iranian and Palestinian issues during an election year.

Jul 8, 2022

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David Makovsky

Photo showing 1983 terrorist attack at U.S. Marine barracks in Beirut, Lebanon.

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Don’t Look Down: The Struggle Over Lebanon’s Airspace

To avoid past mistakes and counter the most potent threat on its borders, Israel requires an accurate intelligence picture in Lebanon, but Iran and Hezbollah risk destabilizing the situation by chipping away at the IDF’s air superiority.

Jul 7, 2022

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Assaf Orion

An Iranian soldier wearing an IRGC uniform salutes in front of an Iranin flag - source: Reuters

Articles & Testimony

The United States Needs a Better Strategy to Deter Iran

A “more for more” agreement might be possible, but only if Iranian leaders are genuinely afraid of what they could lose without one.

Jul 6, 2022

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Dennis Ross

Middle East aerial map, binoculars (Hebrew)

Maps & Graphics

In-Depth Reports

Countering Iran's Regional Strategy (Hebrew)

A Long-Term, Comprehensive Approach

A Hebrew version of the IDF major general's strategy paper, co-published by The Washington Institute and the Institute for Policy and Strategy at Israel's Reichman University.

Jul 5, 2022

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Eyal Zamir

Articles & Testimony

Israel Hoping for Shift in US Iran Policy from Diplomacy to Deterrence

A veteran Israeli security and intelligence official explains why the Biden administration must reinvigorate oil sanctions and demonstrate a commitment to act militarily.

Jun 30, 2022

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Zohar Palti

Iran's Arabic media sites and personalities in Arab countries

Maps & Graphics

In-Depth Reports

The Revolution Will Be Televised in Arabic:

Iran's Media Infrastructure Abroad

An umbrella entity, the Islamic Radio and Television Union, encompasses more than two hundred media groups stretching from Oman to East Africa.

Jun 30, 2022

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Hamdi Malik

Photo of Israeli politicians Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid delivering a statement..

Video

Brief Analysis

The Israeli Government Falls: New Election and Implications for U.S.-Israel Relations

Watch an expert webcast examining the collapse of the year-old coalition government, the impact on President Biden’s upcoming Middle East trip, and the potential consequences for broader U.S.-Israel policy.

Jun 27, 2022

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David Makovsky
Dennis Ross

Ships of the US Navy's Fifth Fleet on exercise in the Persian Gulf

Articles & Testimony

Fixing Washington’s Gulf Rift

From Abu Dhabi and Riyadh’s perspective, there is no substitute for an American partner with the will to militarily deter or answer Iran’s regional aggression.

Jun 21, 2022

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David Schenker

Israeli and UAE flags flying together in Abu Dhabi - source: Reuters

Articles & Testimony

The Abraham Accords and the Changing Shape of the Middle East

A veteran U.S. diplomat reflects on the decades of direct engagement that paved the way to the accords, which have since opened a new avenue for curbing Iran and reanimating Israeli-Palestinian progress.

Jun 21, 2022

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Dennis Ross

Funeral in Tehran for a slain IRGC colonel

Articles & Testimony

The Backstory Behind the Killing of Qods Force Col. Khodaei

The case highlights the uptick in Iran’s targeting of regime opponents abroad, a trend laid bare in a new data set stretching back four decades.

Jun 20, 2022

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Matthew Levitt

Iranian military leaders inspect drones.

Brief Analysis

Insecurity Prompts Iran’s Deceptive Show of Force

Tehran is using drone technology to restore a deterrent posture tarnished by recent targeted killings, attacks on military and nuclear sites, and popular domestic uprisings.

Jun 8, 2022

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Farzin Nadimi

Supported by the

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

Today, the Islamic Republic of Iran poses the most serious and urgent set of security challenges to the United States and its allies in the greater Middle East. Since the Khomeini revolution in 1979, Iran has sought to export its radical ideology through the use of terrorism, subversion, and support to ideological fellow-travelers throughout the Muslim world.

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Farzin Nadimi

Farzin Nadimi, a Senior Fellow with The Washington Institute, is a Washington-based analyst specializing in the security and defense affairs of Iran and the Persian Gulf region.

Patrick Clawson

Patrick Clawson is the Morningstar Senior Fellow and Research Counselor at The Washington Institute.

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Policy Analysis on Iran

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