Energy & Economics

Policy Analysis on Energy & Economics

Israel Debates the Lebanon Maritime Deal

The imminent election and the resultant rush to strike a deal are distracting from what could be a significant diplomatic and economic milestone for both countries.

Oct 13, 2022

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David Makovsky

Buoys mark the maritime border between Israel and Lebanon in the Mediterranean Sea - source: Reuters

Articles & Testimony

Israel Falls for Lebanon’s Treaty Bait-and-Switch

The maritime border agreement is a mixed bag, demonstrating how far Israel will go to make peace with Arab states while doing little to decrease the prospects of an eventual war with Hezbollah.

Oct 11, 2022

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David Schenker

Iranian men use Instagram - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

Social Media in Iran’s Protests: A New Public Sphere?

Apps like Clubhouse and Instagram have greatly broadened the people’s ability to exchange ideas and even criticize the regime, but authorities have simultaneously subverted, coopted, and silenced these platforms at will.

Oct 6, 2022

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Mehdi Khalaji

Articles & Testimony

High Prices, War in Ukraine, a Cold Winter Ahead—and Now OPEC+ Piles On

The oil cartel’s reported plan to cut production could roil global markets, U.S.-Gulf relations, and American voter sentiment.

Oct 4, 2022

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Simon Henderson

Smoke is seen at a Saudi oil facility in Abqaiq, 2019 - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

Will a Sense of Revenge Spur Iran to Attack Saudi Arabia?

While the regime doubles down on its domestic crackdown, it has increased its threatening rhetoric abroad as well, potentially drawing U.S. assets into a new round of military escalation reminiscent of summer 2019.

Oct 4, 2022

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Farzin Nadimi

Brief Analysis

Kuwait’s Election Offers Insights on Wider Gulf Politics

The vote and the events leading up to it reflect a system in near-paralysis rather than an example for neighbors to emulate.

Sep 28, 2022

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Simon Henderson

Brief Analysis

Saudi King Gives Up Prime Minister Role to Crown Prince

The transfer further boosts his son’s authority and could even be a prelude to an unprecedented abdication.

Sep 27, 2022

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Simon Henderson

Brief Analysis

For Hezbollah, a Maritime Border Deal Is a Way to Avoid War

Hezbollah leaders are not ready to act on their many threats of major escalation, so Washington and its allies should prevent the group from reaping the nascent agreement’s reputational and financial benefits.

Sep 23, 2022

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Hanin Ghaddar

MEES map showing Israeli and Lebanese maritime border claims in the East Mediterranean.

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Israel’s Karish Gas Field: Diplomatic Opportunity or Casus Belli?

Seven experts examine how the fraught decision to start production might affect Beirut’s negotiating stance, Hezbollah’s military calculus, U.S.-Israel relations, and other factors.

Sep 20, 2022

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Simon Henderson
Hanin Ghaddar
Matthew Levitt
Ehud Yaari
David Makovsky
David Schenker
Andrew J. Tabler

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

SDR Allocations in the Middle East: Helpful, but No Silver Bullet

Various governments have made good use of last year’s unprecedented IMF allocation, but the Ukraine war, ongoing debt issues, and other economic problems are a reminder that the region cannot sidestep deeper reforms indefinitely.

Sep 20, 2022

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Jonah Shrock

Russian President Putin and Iranian President Raisi meet in Tehran in 2022 - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

Iran One Step Closer to SCO Membership

Assessing the real benefits—and limits—of joining the so-called “anti-NATO” can help policymakers better understand what Tehran, China, Russia, and other participants are getting out of their summits.

Sep 14, 2022

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Nicole Grajewski

A Western Sahara flag flying in the Sahara - source: Reuters

Articles & Testimony

Will the Western Sahara Crisis Tear the Maghreb Apart?

Although the threat of a more serious armed conflict is not acute, the region's worsening diplomatic strife could have far-reaching economic consequences.

Sep 13, 2022

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Sabina Henneberg

Fikra Forum

In New Poll, Most Egyptians Split on Relations with Foreign Powers, Pessimistic About Domestic Economy

Egyptians expressed skepticism about the economy, reliance on the United States, and the Abraham Accords with Israel.

Sep 9, 2022

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Mohamed Abdelaziz

Chinese and Israeli flags on a table at a diplomatic conference - source: Reuters

Articles & Testimony

No, Israel Isn’t Falling Into China’s Orbit

Much has been made about their growing ties, but an in-depth look at their actual activity in various sectors shows that alarmism is unwarranted.

Sep 6, 2022

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Assaf Orion

Brief Analysis

Responding to the PA’s Mounting Fiscal Crisis

Years of declining international aid, unsustainable public patronage, and controversial policies have pushed the Palestinian government and banking sector to the brink of insolvency.

Sep 1, 2022

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Jonah Shrock
Gabriel Epstein
David Makovsky

Fikra Forum

July/August 2022 UAE Survey Shows U.S. Leads Iran, but Lags Russia and China

Emiratis share their views on global players, regional dynamics, and economic conditions.

Aug 30, 2022

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David Pollock

Abu Muhammad al-Jawlani, leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, speaks in a recorded interview released in Jan. 2019. Photo credit: Screenshot by Cole Bunzel via Twitter.

Articles & Testimony

Jawlani’s “State of the Union”

The Syrian jihadist leader’s growing efforts to garner legitimacy and build up local institutions can only go so far amid the group’s continued terrorist sympathies and minority repression.

Aug 29, 2022

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Aaron Y. Zelin

Fikra Forum

New Saudi Poll Shows Biden's Visit Barely Budged Skepticism

The Saudi public gave mixed reviews on issues such as normalization and ties with the United States, but remained mostly united regarding Russia’s actions in Ukraine and relations with Iran.

Aug 26, 2022

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David Pollock

Fikra Forum

Turkey Knocks France Out on Mosul Airport Reconstruction Project

Turkey’s involvement in the reconstruction of Mosul Airport could cause problems amidst regional tensions with France and Iran, but it is also emblematic of the growing economic ties between Turkey and Iraq.

Aug 19, 2022

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Mehmet Alaca

Photo of Turkish and Taliban officials meeting in Ankara, October 2021.

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Looking for Legitimacy: Taliban Diplomacy Since the Fall of Kabul

The group’s international profile has risen substantially with help from China, Turkey, and other states, but Western leaders should curtail their engagement so long as Kabul keeps gaslighting them about its al-Qaeda ties.

Aug 15, 2022

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Aaron Y. Zelin

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Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy

The Washington Institute's Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy embodies the Institute's long-term research focus on the conservative Arab Gulf states -- Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman -- and the key role these countries play collectively as a primary source of the world's oil and natural gas.

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