Democracy & Reform

Policy Analysis on Democracy & Reform

The Syria Breakdown, Episode One: Why Assad Fell

In the first episode of the Institute’s Syria Breakdown series, Syria analyst Andrew Tabler explains the domestic and foreign factors that led to the Assad government’s rapid demise.

Dec 19, 2024

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Andrew J. Tabler

◆ The Syria Breakdown

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Iraq's Militia-Led Communications Commission Clamps Down on Press Coverage of Security Issues

The CMC's latest restrictions on press freedoms indicate that Iran-backed groups fear they could be ousted from power much like Bashar al-Assad next door.

Dec 16, 2024

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Hamdi Malik
Ameer al-Kaabi

◆ Militia Spotlight

Articles & Testimony

Hezbollah Post October 7—Beaten But Still Dangerous

The group has been greatly diminished by a year of war, but the Lebanese people won’t feel the difference unless the international community pushes Beirut and the LAF to reestablish trust and authority.

Dec 10, 2024

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Hanin Ghaddar

Articles & Testimony

Why Al-Assad Fell

The dictator’s rigidity at the negotiating table and within Syrian society left him with scant support when he needed it most, giving Washington a window for pushing a Syrian-led transition and cutting Iran’s axis for good.

Dec 10, 2024

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Andrew J. Tabler

Iranian presidential candidate Masoud Pezeshkian poses in front of a poster of Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei prior to Iran's 2024 presidential elections - source: Reuters

Articles & Testimony

Iran’s New Presidency

Policymakers would be wise to view Pezeshkian’s rise not as a development that will change Iran, but as a reflection of a regime that is struggling to stave off domestic troubles.

Dec 10, 2024

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Michael Singh

A soldier from Iraq's Counter Terrorism Service participates in a joint training exercise with U.S. colleagues - source: U.S. Department of Defense

Brief Analysis

How Washington Can Salvage Iraq’s Counter Terrorism Service

CTS is the most successful U.S. partner force in Iraq, which is why Iran-backed terrorist groups are trying to penetrate and corrupt it.

Dec 3, 2024

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Michael Knights

People queue for bread in rebel-occupied Aleppo in December 2024 - source: Reuters

Articles & Testimony

How Syria’s ‘Diversity-Friendly’ Jihadists Plan on Building a State

As the group consolidates control in newly seized Aleppo, its leader is seeking to allay fears among minorities, pro-Assad residents, and skeptical Western officials alike.

Dec 3, 2024

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Aaron Y. Zelin

Imed Khemiri, a senior official in the Ennahda party and member of the Salvation Front (L) takes part in a protest, demanding the release of imprisoned journalists, activists, opposition figures and setting a date for fair presidential elections in Tunis, Tunisia May 12, 2024 - source: Reuters

Articles & Testimony

How Autocracy Prevailed in Tunisia

Any future democratic renewal will require an entirely new movement that goes much further toward addressing the country’s deepest economic and social injustices.

Nov 4, 2024

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Sarah Yerkes
Sabina Henneberg

Brief Analysis

Egypt’s Economic Reforms Must Continue

Since receiving $57 billion earlier this year, Cairo has enacted several reforms and named a new economic team, but President Sisi must allow for additional improvements.

Oct 30, 2024

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Ben Fishman

Brief Analysis

Countering Hamas’s Shadow Governance in Gaza

Hamas is well aware that sustaining its grip on civilian spaces is crucial to preserving its dominance in the Palestinian arena after the war, so the international community must urgently lay the groundwork for an alternative governance structure.

Oct 25, 2024

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Devorah Margolin
Neomi Neumann

Articles & Testimony

Kurdistan’s Pivotal Elections:

A Defining Moment for the Region’s Future

Disenfranchisement, party fragmentation, and external pressures are pushing Iraqi Kurdistan to a breaking point.

Oct 21, 2024

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Nickolay Mladenov

U.S. President Joe Biden greets French President Emmanuel Macron at the White House in December, 2022 - source: White House

Brief Analysis

Assessing U.S.-French Cooperation a Year After October 7

Fighting on several Middle East fronts has revealed gaps between the allies, but they have ample room to collaborate in areas that range from ensuring Lebanese sovereignty to delivering humanitarian aid.

Oct 18, 2024

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Souhire Medini

Armed members of the Iraqi Shiite militia Asaib Ahl al-Haq demonstrate at a funeral in Iraq - source: Reuters

Articles & Testimony

Embracing Asaib Ahl al-Haq: Pragmatism or Naivete?

Some observers argue that the group's plans for Iraq will eventually cohere with U.S. interests, but this view ignores how its leaders are already pursuing the Hezbollah model of terrorist state capture.

Oct 15, 2024

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Michael Knights

Brief Analysis

A Roadmap to an Enduring Ceasefire in Lebanon

Border security is chiefly a matter of state sovereignty, so the international community must pressure Lebanese officials to take essential political and security steps even before attempting to negotiate ceasefire terms with Israel.

Oct 9, 2024

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Hanin Ghaddar

Brief Analysis

In Lebanon, a Rare Moment of Opportunity

Israel’s campaign has greatly diminished Hezbollah, presenting a chance for Beirut to end the war and push back against the group and its Iranian sponsors—if Lebanese elites are up to the task.

Oct 8, 2024

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David Schenker

(left to right) al-Aqsa Mosque, Jerusalem; an Israeli tank in Ramallah; Hamas (top) and Fatah (bottom) protests in Hebron

In-Depth Reports

Understanding Geographic Distinctions in West Bank Public Opinion

Respondents to an extensive new poll shared remarkably independent views on issues ranging from Hamas’s success in the Gaza war to the likelihood of Israel’s collapse.

Oct 8, 2024

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Catherine Cleveland

Brief Analysis

Tunisia Is Holding an Election—But Will Voters Show Up?

To counter President Saied’s electoral manipulation and increased repression, Washington should work more closely with its contacts in Tunisia’s military, civil society, and European partner governments.

Sep 27, 2024

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Sabina Henneberg
Sarah Yerkes

Fikra Forum

Free and Fair? Setting Expectations for the KRI’s October Elections

Elections in which Kurdish voters can authentically choose their leaders are not only what Kurdish citizens deserve; they increase the likelihood that the KRG will address the myriad concerns about its governance.

Sep 18, 2024

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Winthrop Rodgers

A Jordanian man casts his ballot in parliamentary elections in September 2016 - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

Jordan’s Election Is a Positive Sign Amid Gaza War Tensions

Despite wartime security and economic challenges, the kingdom is holding its first election since a modernization plan was formulated in 2021.

Sep 6, 2024

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Ghaith al-Omari

U.S. and Algerian flags at the U.S. Embassy in Algiers - source: U.S. government

Brief Analysis

What Would Another Tebboune Victory Mean for U.S.-Algeria Relations?

The incumbent president is set to win another term, but shifting opposition politics at home and geostrategic realities abroad could raise bilateral bumps down the road.

Sep 6, 2024

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Sabina Henneberg
Souhire Medini

Supported by the

Project Fikra: Defeating Extremism through the Power of Ideas

Fikra n. [Arabic] "Idea"

The Washington Institute's Project Fikra is a multiyear program of research, publication, and network-building designed to generate policy ideas for promoting positive change and countering the spread of extremism in the Middle East.

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Catherine Cleveland

Catherine Cleveland is The Washington Institute's Croft-Wagner Family Senior Fellow and managing editor of Fikra Forum.

Ben Fishman

Ben Fishman is the Steven D. Levy Senior Fellow in the Linda and Tony Rubin Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute, where he focuses on North Africa.

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