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All Policy Analysis by Fabrice Balanche
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Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
From Qamishli to Qamishlo: A Trip to Rojava’s New Capital
May 8, 2017 I had not been to Qamishli for twenty years. As a Ph.D. student at the French Institute for the Near East, I went with two friends in the late 1990s to explore northeast Syria. This journey led us to Raqqa, Deir al-Zour, Hasaka, and Qamishli. Since 1997
۸ مهٔ ۲۰۱۷
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Fabrice Balanche
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Assad's Chemical Attack Signals an Imminent Idlib Offensive
The regime's latest atrocity was spurred by clear military motivations, and the situation will likely worsen as the army begins a wider ground campaign against rebel strongholds in Idlib province.
۱۴ آوریل ۲۰۱۷
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Fabrice Balanche
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Rojava Seeks to Break Out in Syria
Despite their desire for greater independence, Syria's Kurds have shown a willingness to broker agreements with the Assad regime in order to secure their near-term economic interests, and they may soon do the same with Iran.
۱۲ آوریل ۲۰۱۷
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Fabrice Balanche
Brief Analysis
۱ مارس ۲۰۱۷
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Fabrice Balanche
Brief Analysis
۲۱ فوریهٔ ۲۰۱۷
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Fabrice Balanche
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
The Campaign to Retake Raqqa Is Accelerating
Kurdish-led forces are in good position for a final assault on the Islamic State's Syrian stronghold, and other actors seem ready to either support them or stand aside and benefit from their faster progress on the battlefield.
۹ فوریهٔ ۲۰۱۷
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Fabrice Balanche
Brief Analysis
Will Astana Displace Geneva in the Syrian Peace Process?
The circumstances of the Russian-sponsored peace conference raise several concerns, but failure to participate could signal acquiescence to Moscow's plans in Syria and further U.S. withdrawal from the Middle East.
۲۰ ژانویهٔ ۲۰۱۷
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Fabrice Balanche
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
The Battle for al-Bab Is Bringing U.S.-Turkish Tensions to a Head
Helping Erdogan take the city could greatly decrease the civilian death toll and preserve U.S.-Turkish cooperation in Syria, but Washington will still need to decide what to do with the Kurds, its other key ally against the Islamic State.
۹ ژانویهٔ ۲۰۱۷
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Fabrice Balanche
Articles & Testimony
A Tactical -- Not Strategic -- Ceasefire in Syria
The post-Aleppo lull on the western front is likely just an excuse for Russia to rotate new forces and equipment into Syria and prepare for the next major offensive.
۶ ژانویهٔ ۲۰۱۷
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Fabrice Balanche
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Assad Needs 'Useless Syria' Too
Eastern Syria holds major hydrocarbon and agricultural resources that make it a vital asset in Assad's quest for regime self-sufficiency, and a potentially powerful source of U.S. leverage against him.
۴ ژانویهٔ ۲۰۱۷
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Fabrice Balanche
Brief Analysis
Will Assad Target Idlib After Aleppo?
As Aleppo's eastern districts continue to collapse, the regime will soon turn its attention to other pressing fronts, but manpower shortages will likely force it to focus on just one of them first.
۱۵ دسامبر ۲۰۱۶
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Fabrice Balanche
Brief Analysis
Beginning of the End for East Aleppo
The Assad regime and Russia seem eager to establish full control of the city before the Trump administration takes office, essentially presenting the new president with a fait accompli on the war's most notorious front.
۳۰ نوامبر ۲۰۱۶
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Fabrice Balanche
Brief Analysis
۲۸ نوامبر ۲۰۱۶
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Fabrice Balanche
Brief Analysis
Status of the Syrian Rebellion: Numbers, Ideologies, and Prospects
An in-depth look at how many fighters are still arrayed against the Assad regime, which ideology they subscribe to, and whether more moderate actors can still seize the mantle from extremist factions.
۲۲ نوامبر ۲۰۱۶
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Fabrice Balanche
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
Syrian Kurds as a U.S. Ally:
Cooperation and Complications
This collection of essays by Washington Institute experts explores how the United States can work with--or, in some cases, around--the various actors in heavily Kurdish-populated northern Syria to advance the fight against the Islamic State and create long-term stability. Successive pieces look at the Kurds themselves, Turkey, Arabs in the
۱۸ نوامبر ۲۰۱۶
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Patrick Clawson
David Pollock
Soner Cagaptay
Andrew J. Tabler
Fabrice Balanche
Bilal Wahab
Anna Borshchevskaya
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Roads to Raqqa: Potential Turkish and Kurdish Offensives
In the unlikely event that either side decides to follow through on its declared intentions, each has multiple options for advancing on the Islamic State's heartland.
۷ نوامبر ۲۰۱۶
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Fabrice Balanche
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
The Druze and Assad: Strategic Bedfellows
The strategically important Syrian Druze will not be won over unless they are cut off from Damascus, and even then they would need concrete assurances that international forces will protect them from hostile jihadists.
۲۰ اکتبر ۲۰۱۶
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Fabrice Balanche
Brief Analysis
Who Will Take al-Bab?
The last remaining Islamic State stronghold in eastern Syria is poised to fall, and given the potentially major strategic implications for the Kurds, Turkey, the rebels, and other actors, one of them may act quickly to determine its fate.
۵ اکتبر ۲۰۱۶
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Fabrice Balanche
Brief Analysis
۲۷ سپتامبر ۲۰۱۶
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Fabrice Balanche
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
The U.S. Strike in Deir al-Zour: Implications on the Ground
The episode gives Moscow a great excuse to be uncooperative, which it may have planned to be anyway, but providing clearer information could nevertheless help further the coalition's goals.
۱۹ سپتامبر ۲۰۱۶
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Fabrice Balanche
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