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All Policy Analysis by Fabrice Balanche
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Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
What Will Year Two of Russia's Syria Intervention Bring?
Moscow and Iran are already several steps ahead of Washington in shaping the war's potential endgame, so the next administration will need to be mindful of Putin's likeliest strategies and strongest levers if it wants a different outcome.
۱۴ سپتامبر ۲۰۱۶
◆
Fabrice Balanche
Brief Analysis
۶ سپتامبر ۲۰۱۶
◆
Fabrice Balanche
Brief Analysis
Rojava's Sustainability and the PKK's Regional Strategy
As the Kurds continue to pursue their goal of a contiguous territory in northern Syria, various nonmilitary factors will determine whether their nascent statelet is viable in the long term, including a host of demographic, economic, water, and oil issues.
۲۴ اوت ۲۰۱۶
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Fabrice Balanche
Brief Analysis
۱۲ اوت ۲۰۱۶
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Fabrice Balanche
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Aleppo: Is the Turnaround Sustainable for the Rebels?
Anti-Assad forces can relish a victory, but their stated aspiration to hold the entire city should be taken with a grain of salt.
۹ اوت ۲۰۱۶
◆
Fabrice Balanche
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Damascus Control Emboldens Assad Nationally
Without a real military threat to the capital, neither the Syrian leader nor Iran will accept a political transition, even if Russia agrees to one.
۲ اوت ۲۰۱۶
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Fabrice Balanche
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Kurdish Forces Bolster Assad in Aleppo
By allying with the Syrian regime, the YPG implicitly signaled to the U.S. government that the Kurdish group will act based on its own interests.
۲۹ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۶
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Fabrice Balanche
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
The Islamic State Threat in the Golan Heights
Using both carrots and sticks, Israel has so far managed to prevent attacks against the Golan, but the danger is growing as jihadist movements increase their presence in southwestern Syria amid setbacks on other fronts.
۱۴ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
Fabrice Balanche
Brief Analysis
Shaping U.S.-Russian Cooperation Against Jabhat al-Nusra
Helping Russia target the jihadist group will only benefit the Assad regime unless Washington ensures that such efforts are carefully targeted, strictly conditioned, and accompanied by additional reinforcement of the moderate opposition.
۱ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
Fabrice Balanche
Andrew J. Tabler
Brief Analysis
۸ ژوئن ۲۰۱۶
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Fabrice Balanche
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Raqqa Will Not Fall Until Arab Tribes Fight the Islamic State
The tribes in eastern Syria have been driven in different directions by the Assad regime, outside actors, and their own self-interest, leaving the coalition with a complex web to untangle before it can fully uproot IS.
۳ ژوئن ۲۰۱۶
◆
Fabrice Balanche
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Water Issues Are Crucial to Stability in Syria's Euphrates Valley
Regardless of who drives the Islamic State out of the Euphrates Valley agricultural zone, they will need to address the legacy of failed regime irrigation policies that are once again creating tension among local tribes.
۲۶ مهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
Fabrice Balanche
Brief Analysis
۲۵ مهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
Fabrice Balanche
Brief Analysis
The Islamic State Is Targeting Syria's Alawite Heartland -- and Russia
The group's choice of targets is a clear sign of its intention to inflame Sunni/Alawite tensions, raise the price of Moscow's intervention, and assert its symbolic leadership over the rebellion.
۲۴ مهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
Fabrice Balanche
Articles & Testimony
France Refuses to See Islamism as a Cultural Problem
If European countries keep dodging difficult questions about Islamism for the sake of political expediency, international jihadists will continue to emerge from within.
۱۳ مهٔ ۲۰۱۶
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Fabrice Balanche
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
The Battle for Deir al-Zour: A U.S.-Russian Bridge Against the Islamic State?
The survival of the regime enclave in Deir al-Zour is fundamental to the anti-IS fight, so Washington and Moscow's allies on the ground may need to race to its rescue sooner rather than later.
۱۱ مهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
Fabrice Balanche
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
The Latest Aleppo Battle May Give the Islamic State Another Reprieve
Aside from President Obama, none of the main players in Syria has an interest in rushing toward Raqqa, so they will likely focus on exploiting the various campaigns around Aleppo instead.
۲۶ آوریل ۲۰۱۶
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Fabrice Balanche
Brief Analysis
۱۵ آوریل ۲۰۱۶
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Fabrice Balanche
Articles & Testimony
Bachar el-Assad Garde Encore la Main
Despite talk of a negotiated transition or a national unity government, Syria's Bashar al-Assad intends to stay. And while Western powers maneuver for diplomatic high ground in Geneva, Russia continues to push its on-the-ground military advantage on Assad's behalf.
۱۳ آوریل ۲۰۱۶
◆
Fabrice Balanche
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
How to Prevent al-Qaeda from Seizing a Safe Zone in Northwestern Syria
Strong ground support for moderate rebels would be needed to keep any buffer zone in the northwest from falling under the control of al-Qaeda's Syrian affiliate.
۷ مارس ۲۰۱۶
◆
Fabrice Balanche
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