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اسرائیل

Policy Analysis on اسرائیل

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One of the pagers destroyed by remotely triggered explosion in Lebanon on September 17, 2024 - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
How Exploding Pagers Can Lead to Calm Along Israel-Lebanon Border
Washington should push to negotiate limited border understandings now—it makes little sense to open a larger, more catastrophically destructive conflict if the outcome is likely to end up at the same place.
۲۲ سپتامبر ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Robert Satloff
Articles & Testimony
Israel Sends Hezbollah Twin Messages
Israel’s cloak-and-dagger pager ploy was extraordinary, but will it change the group’s calculus?
۲۱ سپتامبر ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Matthew Levitt
Hezbollah fighters parade with flags in Lebanon in 2019 - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
Israel and the Coming Long War
To defeat Iran’s "resistance" axis, the IDF needs a new strategy—and a unified country.
۱۳ سپتامبر ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Assaf Orion
Articles & Testimony
Netanyahu Is Playing Into Khamenei’s Hands
Iran’s leaders are playing a long game; Israel’s leaders are not.
۱۳ سپتامبر ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Dennis Ross
A masked Hamas fighter brandishes a rifle in Gaza - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Hamas Is Weakened, But a Prolonged Guerrilla Conflict Looms
The group maintains significant control over Gaza’s population despite its considerable losses, and removing it from power will necessitate a long campaign that no actor seems willing to undertake.
۱۲ سپتامبر ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Ido Levy
A Chevron gas platform in the Mediterranean Sea's Aphrodite gas field off the coast of Cyprus - source: Chevron
Brief Analysis
East Med Politics May Further Delay Cyprus Gas
The island has objected to Chevron’s export proposals with Egypt and might look for other partners.
۵ سپتامبر ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Simon Henderson
Israeli soldiers on patrol in the West Bank community of Nablus - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Prioritizing the West Bank Amid Escalation and Deterioration
Israel’s most significant military operation in the territory since the second intifada highlights the growing danger of a new front opening alongside the Gaza war.
۳۰ اوت ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Neomi Neumann
Articles & Testimony
Israel Turns Up the Heat on Hezbollah
As the war in Gaza seemingly winds down, the old rules no longer apply in the north.
۲۹ اوت ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • David Schenker
Infographic on Hamas diplomatic meetings during the Gaza war.
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Hamas Diplomacy: From Haniyeh to Sinwar
The group has sought to build legitimacy and prepare for a postwar role in Gaza by engaging with various countries since October, but the death of Ismail Haniyeh will complicate those efforts.
۲۸ اوت ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Aaron Y. Zelin
Brief Analysis
Another One-Day War? What the Latest Hezbollah-Israel Clash Reveals About Deterrence and Escalation
Israeli and Lebanese experts join two former U.S. officials to discuss what each party was thinking before, during, and after this weekend’s exchange of strikes—and whether war in the north has become inevitable regardless of near-term de-escalation.
۲۷ اوت ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Ben Fishman
  • Hanin Ghaddar
  • Assaf Orion
  • Dennis Ross
Brief Analysis
The Pros and Cons of Salvaging (or Ditching) UNIFIL
Given the current lack of viable security alternatives on the Israel-Lebanon border, Washington may try to patch up UNIFIL’s many deficiencies—but it must do so with a clear understanding that the force has repeatedly failed its mission and squandered its credibility.
۲۰ اوت ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • David Schenker
  • Assaf Orion
Chinese and U.S. flags flutter at a trade meeting in Shanghai
Articles & Testimony
What to Make of China’s Moves in the Middle East
Beijing doesn’t care that its “Palestinian unity” agreement is a nonstarter or that a Hamas victory would undermine Chinese interests in stabilizing the Middle East—it just wants the United States to lose.
۱۹ اوت ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Michael Singh
Asad attack
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Militias Signal De-Escalation with the U.S., Return to Cosmetic Israel Strikes
The self-styled Iraqi "resistance" has hinted at a desire to end the tit-for-tat sequence of strikes with the United States and return to cost-free counter-Israel operations.
۱۸ اوت ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Hamdi Malik
  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight
President Joe Biden gestures while speaking - source: White House
Articles & Testimony
There Is Still Time to Stop a Wider War in the Middle East
Because the landscape has shifted since April, the Biden administration’s previous script for preventing irreversible escalation may no longer work.
۱۵ اوت ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Dana Stroul
◆ Risks and Opportunities in the Post-April 13 Middle East
The US Navy carrier Abraham Lincoln sails alongside an escort destroyer - source: U.S. Navy
تحلیل کوتاه
تنها یک تهدید تهاجمی معتبر می‌تواند ایران را از بالا رفتن از نردبان تنش باز دارد
در میان موجی از تحرکات دیپلماتیک و استقرار توانایی‌های نظامی ایالات متحده در منطقه، مشخص نیست که ایران شرمسار از کشته شدن اسماعیل هنیه در پایتخت خود به اسراییل حمله خواهد کرد یا خیر، اما یک نکته روشن است: اگر به ایران اجازه داده شود که حمله مستقیم به اسراییل را بدون پیامدهای معنی‌دار تکرار کند، سابقه خطرناکی ایجاد خواهد شد.
۱۵ اوت ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • فرزین ندیمی
Photo of a woman walking in front of a mural that shows missiles being launched from Iran.
Video
Brief Analysis
On the Brink? The Potential for a Broader Conflict in the Middle East
An Israeli general and two former U.S. officials discuss the prospects of an imminent Iranian attack and what can be done to deter it.
۱۴ اوت ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Amir Eshel
  • David M. Satterfield
  • Dana Stroul
An unexploded missile fired by an Israeli aircraft lies among the rubble, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, in the northern Gaza Strip - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Explosive Remnants: Gaza’s Literal Ticking Bomb
Reconstruction can’t happen until thousands of dud bombs and other explosives are cleared from the urban rubble—a task that faces formidable shortfalls in funding, manpower, and other resources.
۱۲ اوت ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Andrew G. Clemmensen
Turkish
Brief Analysis
Israel-Turkey Relations Nearing a Rupture
Even with U.S. intercession, the assassination of a Hamas leader in Tehran could harden Ankara’s stance against Israel and spur a fatal cycle of diplomatic and economic retaliation.
۹ اوت ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
A poster depicts former Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh alongside the Iranian flag in Tehran following Haniyeh's killing in Iran - source: Reuters
تحلیل کوتاه
آیا دو حمله‌ی اخیر مذاکرات غزه و قدرت بازدارندگی در برابر ایران-حزب‌الله را از بین می‌برد؟
چهار کارشناس انستیتو واشینگتن در مطلب زیر به بررسی محاسبات اسراییل در پشت انجام چنین حملات پر سر و صدایی در این برهه زمانی، تأثیرات احتمالی آنها بر روی مذاکرات آزادسازی گروگان‌های غزه، نیاز احتمالی ایران به پاسخ نظامی برای حفظ آبرو، و موارد دیگر پرداخته‌اند.
۹ اوت ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • دنیس راس
  • دیوید ماکوفسکی
  • نئومی نیومن
  • فرزین ندیمی
President Joe Biden arrives in Saudi Arabia in July 2022
Articles & Testimony
Biden’s Middle East Moonshot
Reaching a Gaza ceasefire and Israeli-Saudi normalization deal will require intense, well-coordinated diplomatic efforts in a condensed timeline, but the administration can do it with help from the “Arab Quint.”
۷ اوت ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Dennis Ross

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